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#1225860 - 20/12/2013 09:45 ENSO Discussion 2014
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
looks like continuation of neutral to very weak la Nina conditions...in fact all of 2014 to me at this stage!

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#1226619 - 27/12/2013 15:42 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Frostie Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/02/2006
Posts: 21
Loc: Brisbane / Bayside QLD
Hi BD - What's your reasoning for this? We seem to be having neutral to el nino like weather conditions here at the moment but as you say above, the pacific looks like a weak la nina (I assume because of the negative PDO) so what in your opinion is driving the current lack of rain in Qld and the east coast?

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#1226639 - 27/12/2013 17:38 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1545
Loc: Kingaroy
This lack of rain and record heat is what normally would be experienced in an El Nino pattern, but its neutral at the moment so other factors must be causing this dry spell.

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#1226672 - 27/12/2013 20:20 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Cooler water off QLD coast not helping QLD & East Coast SP!


Edited by bd bucketingdown (27/12/2013 20:21)

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#1226675 - 27/12/2013 20:34 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4265
Loc: Wynnum
Cooler water off Qld coast is a magnet for persistent high pressure. We in Brisbane are having a COOL and dry December ( by way of average for the month, November was right on average tempwise for Brisbane Airport ) due to continuing SE stream. This same stream once it heads inland and turns northerly pushes up the temps for the southern half of the country, hence the so called record heat.. In contrast persistent warm anomalies off WA should lead to bumper TC season in that area.
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#1226678 - 27/12/2013 21:08 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17714
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
The greater problem is the water further east killing the easterlies and stealing all the low pressure.
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#1226791 - 28/12/2013 15:32 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
RC Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2023
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
There seems to be a persistent hot patch the other side of NZ..

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#1226793 - 28/12/2013 15:35 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17714
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
...and that's where the low pressure is being dragged.
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#1226862 - 28/12/2013 19:26 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1545
Loc: Kingaroy
the Coral Sea seems to being showing signs of warming up which would not be surprising given the major heatwave that is underway over most of Queensland.

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#1226865 - 28/12/2013 19:41 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1614
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Thanks for that Retired Weatherman and B D ,always enjoy your lessons. cheers Doug.


Edited by ozone doug (28/12/2013 19:43)
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#1226871 - 28/12/2013 20:00 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: ColdFront]
RC Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2023
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
...and that's where the low pressure is being dragged.


From memory there was the same pool of hot water there all through spring last year when it was a very dry spring for Qld...

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#1226874 - 28/12/2013 20:17 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17714
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Yeah it was there then too. If you look at global wind maps that warm zone is stopping the trades in their tracks. No trades ,no walker circulation.

If the current pattern continues our best chance will be a low forming in the GoC tracking sth east.

The problem was compounded by the STJ coming right up into Cape York and very dry mids. We can see detailed land features 20 k's away up here in Cairns at the moment the air is so clear.
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#1226877 - 28/12/2013 20:29 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Frostie Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/02/2006
Posts: 21
Loc: Brisbane / Bayside QLD
Thank very much for that information guys. Coldfront would you mind defining the acronym STJ for me (sorry for ignorance).

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#1226878 - 28/12/2013 20:34 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17714
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Subtropical Jet Stream
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#1226937 - 28/12/2013 23:02 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1545
Loc: Kingaroy
What could be causing that warm zone I wonder?

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#1226944 - 28/12/2013 23:27 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6276
Loc: Central Qld.
So how come we got some good storm rain last month then ?
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#1226946 - 28/12/2013 23:39 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: Chris Stumer]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6276
Loc: Central Qld.
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
the Coral Sea seems to being showing signs of warming up which would not be surprising given the major heatwave that is underway over most of Queensland.


Does that mean there is increased chance of rain in the coming weeks ?
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#1227005 - 29/12/2013 09:30 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1545
Loc: Kingaroy
We can only hope Vinnie, at the moment there is a huge rubber band being stretched and sooner or later that rubber band will break, to put it into prospective, this heat is evaporating huge amounts of water vapor into the sky and what goes up must come down.

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#1227011 - 29/12/2013 10:06 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6276
Loc: Central Qld.
Well as long as it isn't a repeat of Australia day 2012 again.
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#1227015 - 29/12/2013 10:18 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
"What goes up must come down", but not necessarily in the same place!
Looks a bit better from around 18th January 2014 and onwards for rest of month on some of my own models. Though early days yet.

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