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#1229899 - 07/01/2014 09:31 Re: Inland Aus major heatwave event - Jan 2014 [Re: Ken Kato]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1131
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Blair do you know why the 50.0C for Wilcannia was mentioned as New South Wales top temp in that report yet on the BOM's own website it states that Menindee at 49.7C in 1939 was the hottest temp ever recorded in NSW?

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#1229901 - 07/01/2014 09:33 Re: Inland Aus major heatwave event - Jan 2014 [Re: Ken Kato]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3825
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
That page on the website only draws from data available in the digital database, and the Wilcannia 50.0 is from a period when the daily data from there haven't yet been digitised.

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#1229913 - 07/01/2014 10:49 Re: Inland Aus major heatwave event - Jan 2014 [Re: Blair Trewin]
Graham M Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2002
Posts: 409
Loc: Boambee East near Coffs Harbou...
Surprised to see in that report that mean daily temperatures are still defined as the average of the daily minimum and maximum. I'd have thought that in this century of AWSs it really would be the mean. I guess backward compatibility is the culprit again.

Is the daily mean for a particular day the average of the maximum and minimum recorded for that day? As many of us aware the minimum recorded for, say January 7 covers the 24 hours to 9 am January 7, but the maximum recorded for January 7 is for the 24 hours to 9 am January 8.

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#1229916 - 07/01/2014 11:25 Re: Inland Aus major heatwave event - Jan 2014 [Re: Graham M]
Blair Trewin Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3825
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Originally Posted By: Graham M
Surprised to see in that report that mean daily temperatures are still defined as the average of the daily minimum and maximum. I'd have thought that in this century of AWSs it really would be the mean. I guess backward compatibility is the culprit again.

Is the daily mean for a particular day the average of the maximum and minimum recorded for that day? As many of us aware the minimum recorded for, say January 7 covers the 24 hours to 9 am January 7, but the maximum recorded for January 7 is for the 24 hours to 9 am January 8.


Yes, it is.

The (max+min)/2 method is used for historical consistency - while AWSs have continuous data now, this is only true since the 1990s. A lot of stations historically have observations only at 9am and 3pm (or at 9am only), and some of the manual ones (which still make up 20-30% of the temperature network) still do.

For those interested in a more technical discussion, I wrote a paper on this in 2004 which can be found at http://www.bom.gov.au/amoj/docs/2004/trewin.pdf.

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#1229946 - 07/01/2014 13:25 Re: Inland Aus major heatwave event - Jan 2014 [Re: Blair Trewin]
Graham M Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2002
Posts: 409
Loc: Boambee East near Coffs Harbou...
Thanks Blair. I've printed off that document and will curl up in bed with it tonight smile

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#1229954 - 07/01/2014 13:37 Re: Inland Aus major heatwave event - Jan 2014 [Re: Blair Trewin]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1131
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
That page on the website only draws from data available in the digital database, and the Wilcannia 50.0 is from a period when the daily data from there haven't yet been digitised.


Oh wow and here I was thinking that Australia had only ever recorded 50C 3 times in it's history!

Any other 50C temps out there from weather stations that haven't yet been digitised?

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#1229957 - 07/01/2014 13:50 Re: Inland Aus major heatwave event - Jan 2014 [Re: Ken Kato]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3825
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Wilcannia's one of the three (actually, it's three places, four readings - Oodnadatta reached 50 twice in the 1960 event).

Couldn't absolutely rule out the possibility that there's more lurking out there, but we've had a good look at publications like annual summaries which report on the year's highest temperature (among other things) and haven't found anything.

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#1229959 - 07/01/2014 13:55 Re: Inland Aus major heatwave event - Jan 2014 [Re: Ken Kato]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Mardie, Oodnadatta and Wilcannia are the three ones. Ood amazingly had back to back 50's from that event and a 49.2C or something iirc to start the year off.

TS cool

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#1230049 - 07/01/2014 19:15 Re: Inland Aus major heatwave event - Jan 2014 [Re: Ken Kato]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1131
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
BOM forecast map now showing a small area around Exmouth on Thursday above 52C at surface altitude! Learmouth or Emu Creek definately one to watch out for...

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#1230051 - 07/01/2014 19:26 Re: Inland Aus major heatwave event - Jan 2014 [Re: Ken Kato]
Tom1234 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/04/2011
Posts: 1709
Loc: Port Stephens
Don't think I've ever seen the bright pink shading used before, 53-54c is pretty intense.

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#1230053 - 07/01/2014 19:38 Re: Inland Aus major heatwave event - Jan 2014 [Re: Ken Kato]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1131
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Even if it's over estimating by 2c then it's still looking good for a 50C max somewhere on wednesday and thursday...

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#1230102 - 07/01/2014 23:45 Re: Inland Aus major heatwave event - Jan 2014 [Re: Ken Kato]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hoping the heat can stay clear of the NSW South Coast over the next fortnight or so. I'm not liking the looks of those temperatures that are predicted as the heatwave starts spreading further across NSW/ACT and into Victoria over the coming seven days or so; I'm already sick of the sight of all the drying vegetation here in Corryong and other parts of the Upper Murray region of Northeast Victoria and Southeast NSW. It's making me very nervous, we need some good summer rain here and definitely back home in Melbourne (especially in the Dandenong Ranges) if we are to have a better chance of escaping bushfires!! frown

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#1230149 - 08/01/2014 09:43 Re: Inland Aus major heatwave event - Jan 2014 [Re: Ken Kato]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
The ABC news last night mentioned that the monsoon was in the process of arriving in the top end, and this should (should) start to shift the heat bubble. The milder temperatures in the SE start to climb upwards from tomorrow, and by next week we're back in the mid 30s.

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#1230178 - 08/01/2014 11:32 Re: Inland Aus major heatwave event - Jan 2014 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5391
NAEFS and the EC ensemble still suggesting the next hot signal to intensify over parts of eastern Australia later next week, especially inland SE Australia. NAEFS output for temp anomaly probabilities averaged over the 15th to 22nd Jan period below:

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5545/11828000224_f6566bd750_z.jpg


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#1230189 - 08/01/2014 12:10 Re: Inland Aus major heatwave event - Jan 2014 [Re: Ken Kato]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1131
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Yep looking at the longterm models places Like Melbourne are going to experience extended periods of 35C+ temps from Tuesday onwards, possibly close to record breaking in terms of length...

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#1230219 - 08/01/2014 14:54 Re: Inland Aus major heatwave event - Jan 2014 [Re: Ken Kato]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 958
Loc: Cammeray
Onslow is going at a cracking pace and has already hit 47.5C before 11:30am but other places like Learmonth are substantially less than this. Unlike the SA sites last week, these ones generally look to peak temperature-wise around late morning, so I'm not sure how much Onslow's got left to give.

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#1230228 - 08/01/2014 15:26 Re: Inland Aus major heatwave event - Jan 2014 [Re: Ken Kato]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Adelaide will give the run of consecutive 30C+ days a go though will battle for the 35C. Should see a good 5 or 6. 40C+ temps as well. Going to be a good old fashioned boiler. Wonder if it will beat Jan 2001.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (08/01/2014 15:26)

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#1230326 - 09/01/2014 06:57 Re: Inland Aus major heatwave event - Jan 2014 [Re: Ken Kato]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1131
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Wow, below is an extract from a story run on Perth Now yesterday:

PERTH might be set for a scorching weekend with a Saturday maximum of 43C but spare a though for the people in the Pilbara town of Onslow.

The town has roasted through one of its hottest days on record, with temperatures soaring to an almost unbearable 48.7C.

And forecasters are warning of an even hotter day tomorrow, with the national heat record of 50.7C likely to come under threat.

The weather station at Onslow Airport, nearly 1400 kilometres north of Perth, was in danger of frying as it recorded temperatures of more than 40C at 9am local time on Wednesday.

It peaked at 48.7C at 2.12pm.

The Bureau of Meteorology predicts the Pilbara region around Emu Creek will potentially reach more than 50C tomorrow afternoon.

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#1230342 - 09/01/2014 08:51 Re: Inland Aus major heatwave event - Jan 2014 [Re: Ken Kato]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 958
Loc: Cammeray
The BOM forecast is 'only' 47C so I'd say it's highly unlikely

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#1230345 - 09/01/2014 09:04 Re: Inland Aus major heatwave event - Jan 2014 [Re: Ken Kato]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1131
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
That's for Onslow MG, the article says Emu Creek is the 50C possiblity which is inland from Exmouth and Onslow and has no forecast from the BOM...


Edited by pete28 (09/01/2014 09:04)

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