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#1230200 - 08/01/2014 12:54 Re: SA - Heatwave 9th-18th Jan 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
seaworthy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/08/2004
Posts: 3673
Loc: Gawler East, SA - 102m
Looks like you picked this one a fair way out Kyle, good stuff mate!

Certainly not looking forward to this myself but considering maximum temperatures are running about 6C below average for January we have a bit of catching up to do, and let's face it, it was always going to happen. smile

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#1230205 - 08/01/2014 13:23 Re: SA - Heatwave 9th-18th Jan 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1663
Loc: Uleybury
Thanks,
Normally we start the year off with some 40's but not this year. Still remember the 45.2 degree day around this time last year and not fun when you have a non working air con and inside is 37. Gardens won't like this heat considering the length of the heat wave.

These are the temperatures I've got from yesterdays maps
Forecast from Wednesday 15th to Thursday 23rd
Wed 40
Thu 40
Fri 40
Sat 38
Sun 38
Mon 38
Tue 40
Wed 40
Thu 40
Only basic ones and still yet to update but TS reckons we could see a 45-44 degree day, even that wouldn't surprise me.

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#1230230 - 08/01/2014 15:33 Re: SA - Heatwave 9th-18th Jan 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2790
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Out of interest what are the records for Adelaide's most 30c+ 35c+ 40c+ days in a row?

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#1230238 - 08/01/2014 16:13 Re: SA - Heatwave 9th-18th Jan 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
Matt_30 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/09/2008
Posts: 62
Loc: Adelaide
I am unsure of all of them, but I do know that Adelaide's record for most days in a row of days over 35 is currently 15, set in March 2008.

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#1230241 - 08/01/2014 16:15 Re: SA - Heatwave 9th-18th Jan 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17558
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Thanks to Kyle Smith for these..
17 days 30 or above
15 for 35
13 for 37.8
6 for 40
4 for 42

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#1230247 - 08/01/2014 16:46 Re: SA - Heatwave 9th-18th Jan 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1663
Loc: Uleybury
I've just had a look at the latest GFS maps and looks like this will carry by Friday the 24th, still looking at temperatures of 38-42 degrees. From Sunday 19th to Friday to the 24th, all 40's and 42's. Even though it could change but for the last day or so, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday (21-23rd) still sit in the 40 degree mark.

I went 40 for next Wednesday and the Bureau are going for 41 so happy with my prediction there.

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#1230249 - 08/01/2014 17:05 Re: SA - Heatwave 9th-18th Jan 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17558
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Don't disregard the other models in the shorter term. In the last year I'd actually say GFS was only the 3rd best model.

Having another look now, those last 2 records for consecutive days over 40 and 42, not beyond reach either... if monday can manage to reach 40 instead of the 39C forecast, I think there's a chance of equaling the 6 days, and Tues-Fri certainly not out of the question getting to 42C either....
Not overly keen on predicting anything for the following week yet apart from the fact it still looks to stay hot, as extended GFS is just too un-predictable.

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#1230254 - 08/01/2014 17:30 Re: SA - Heatwave 9th-18th Jan 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1663
Loc: Uleybury
You got no back up to compare the temperature readings with another map or more. I'll still keep an eye out on them and compare them with ACCESS G. If it were to be like that, that's just freaky heat!
Ground may be hot enough to fry an egg.

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#1230256 - 08/01/2014 17:35 Re: SA - Heatwave 9th-18th Jan 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14896
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
If the Monsoon gets active which most models do suggest then I think things will get rather serious. The upper ridge will just hover around and the inland trough will just become more pronounced.

TS cool

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#1230260 - 08/01/2014 18:00 Re: SA - Heatwave 9th-18th Jan 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1891
Loc: Semaphore SA
I normally just use weatherzone to view ACCESS-G as an animation so I can flick back and forth and then do the same with GFS 8-day. Never really bothered with the other models...any in particular that are worth adding?

Wish we had massive archives of past weather in a consolidated database, with EVERYTHING...including model runs, BOM forecasts, charts all easily searchable and presenting the data in a really clear way. Expecting too much maybe wink ? Nuh I'm sure it can be done. One day.
_________________________
GFS Stormcast by BSCH




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#1230263 - 08/01/2014 18:14 Re: SA - Heatwave 9th-18th Jan 2014 [Re: Chris #3]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14896
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Originally Posted By: Chris #3
I normally just use weatherzone to view ACCESS-G as an animation so I can flick back and forth and then do the same with GFS 8-day. Never really bothered with the other models...any in particular that are worth adding?

Wish we had massive archives of past weather in a consolidated database, with EVERYTHING...including model runs, BOM forecasts, charts all easily searchable and presenting the data in a really clear way. Expecting too much maybe wink ? Nuh I'm sure it can be done. One day.


ECMWF, which is by far the best model to use.

TS cool

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#1230267 - 08/01/2014 18:33 Re: SA - Heatwave 9th-18th Jan 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
CHOPS1 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/09/2013
Posts: 1
Makes me laugh when only on Satuday the 4th jan on abc morning gardening show I heard someone from the BOM give a seasonal outlook and his words were he can't see any heatwave's in Jan????

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#1230275 - 08/01/2014 18:51 Re: SA - Heatwave 9th-18th Jan 2014 [Re: CHOPS1]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1891
Loc: Semaphore SA
Thanks TS. Will spend some time checking that one out.
_________________________
GFS Stormcast by BSCH




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#1230303 - 08/01/2014 21:49 Re: SA - Heatwave 9th-18th Jan 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
kgb007 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/12/2010
Posts: 1515
Loc: Hope Valley, SA
My stats from 2009 event!
25th Jan 32.4
26th Jan 37.0
27th Jan 43.5
28th Jan 46.0
29th Jan 44.1
30th Jan 44.0
31st Jan 42.0
1st Feb 42.1
2nd Feb 38.0
3rd Feb 36.8
4th Feb 35.8
5th Feb 36.2
6th Feb 44.4
7th Feb 43.1

HELL ON EARTH!

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#1230305 - 08/01/2014 21:54 Re: SA - Heatwave 9th-18th Jan 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
kgb007 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/12/2010
Posts: 1515
Loc: Hope Valley, SA
My stats from March 2008 event!
2nd 32.5
3rd 35.1
4th 36.6
5th 37.5
6th 38.5
7th 39.6
8th 40.0
9th 40.5
10th 39.3
11th 38.8
12th 39.5
13th 40.0
14th 40.4
15th 37.7
16th 39.9
17th 40.0

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#1230307 - 08/01/2014 22:09 Re: SA - Heatwave 9th-18th Jan 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1663
Loc: Uleybury
That was just a hell of a heatwave back in 2009, 6 days over 41 with one of them being 46 and two 44's. Horrid heat. I still remember one thing about that heat wave... the sun

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#1230319 - 08/01/2014 23:14 Re: SA - Heatwave 9th-18th Jan 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17558
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
ok so we have been talking all about the heat.... what about the chance of some storms about...
Models do bring in a fair bit of instability from Wednesday onwards.... is there enough of a trigger to set something off? It doesn't look to be overly dry heat that we would expect either with DP's around the 6-12C mark... not humid but not in the negative's either!

Also slightly interested to see how far the NE infeed actually creeps in this Fri-Sat.... BOM still suggesting only NE pastoral, but I'm still giving the Riverland and no-man's land a shot at a bit...

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#1230323 - 08/01/2014 23:57 Re: SA - Heatwave 9th-18th Jan 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14896
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yer I feel at the back end of the first burst the trough certainly obtains enough moisture to convect into very late afternoon and evening thunderstorms to the north of say Gawler and up across the EP and down across Mid North to the Riverland and maybe below. No real triggers there, just plain old heat, bit of moisture lifted with convection and enough lift in the trough to give a some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Certainly not a lot in it but something if one persists based on current models. Tues/wed/thurs the best at this stage, wed prob pick of all those 3. Nothing much but definitely as Tim says not a real dry dry heat. Moisture is available. Bases though, will be mighty high.

TS cool

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#1230324 - 08/01/2014 23:58 Re: SA - Heatwave 9th-18th Jan 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14896
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Damn looking at that Jan 2009 event, fair to say this one won't get to the levels of that one but will have a fair ol crack all the same.

TS cool

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#1230430 - 09/01/2014 15:02 Re: SA - Heatwave 9th-18th Jan 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Well, the heat can finish anytime it likes, I for one am sick of it already and it has only just vaguely started!

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