Page 24 of 87 < 1 2 ... 22 23 24 25 26 ... 86 87 >
Topic Options
#1235177 - 28/01/2014 11:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1564
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
And looking at the gfs and access models for this morining, they are a fair bit out in their predicted centre, so not too sure these models will get it right until a defined LLC is defined and tracked.
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

Top
#1235180 - 28/01/2014 11:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1141
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
Latest GFS has a Babinda/Innisfail crossing

[url=http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/stormcast.html?ops=gfs:2014012718:2014013006:nqld:s10m:null:0#sc][/url]
_________________________
Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

Top
#1235181 - 28/01/2014 11:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
psychlonique Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/02/2011
Posts: 194
Loc: Annandale Qld
Im actually thinking looking at Nullschool watching the winds changing gradually there is a good chance it may split in two.

Top
#1235182 - 28/01/2014 11:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5476
Latest satellite ASCAT pass at 10:02am managed to capture the eastern end of the elongated area of surface winds:

http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3741/12180873695_1bdab448cc_b.jpg


Top
#1235183 - 28/01/2014 11:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25309
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
For people in the
Northern Tropical Coast and Tablelands,
Herbert and Lower Burdekin and parts of the
Central Coast and Whitsundays Forecast Districts.


Issued at 10:34 am Tuesday, 28 January 2014.


Synoptic Situation: At 9am, a tropical low was situated in the northern Coral Sea, approximately 870 kilometres east-northeast of Cairns, and moving southwest at around 10 kilometres per hour. The tropical low is expected to move in a general westwards direction over the next couple of days and may develop further as it approaches the Queensland east coast. The potential for the system to develop into a tropical cyclone will be assessed during today and Tropical Cyclone Advices will be issued if required.


Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, and damaging winds, with peak gusts in excess of 90km/h, are expected to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Port Douglas and the area north of Mackay during Wednesday afternoon. 24 hour rainfall totals in excess of 200mm are possible.


Water levels on the high tide are also likely to exceed the highest tide of the year about coastal areas between Port Douglas and the areas north of Mackay over the next couple of days.


Locations which may be affected include Hamilton Island, Proserpine, Bowen, Townsville, Cairns, Port Douglas and Mareeba.




Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.



The next warning is due to be issued by 4:35 pm.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

Top
#1235188 - 28/01/2014 12:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1190
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Looks to be dropping down South?
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-382, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

Top
#1235190 - 28/01/2014 12:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1190
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Hmm ok, having seen the other thread I'm obviously looking at the wrong system. So the low dropping south off Cairns, is that a potential cylcone, depression, anything? Did it branch out off the low above it?


Edited by Lani (28/01/2014 12:06)
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-382, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

Top
#1235193 - 28/01/2014 12:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
si-entific Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2013
Posts: 86
Loc: Woree QLD
870km ENE of cairns @ 10km/h equates to *possible* landfall around 87 hours / 3.5 days. At this rate, there is time to get organised and deepen.

Top
#1235197 - 28/01/2014 12:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
Plenty of time for it to bomb if it wants. Seems the BoM are making out there should be a cyclone advice tonight.

Top
#1235198 - 28/01/2014 12:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
si-entific Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2013
Posts: 86
Loc: Woree QLD
this low has some size to it. I am looking to the in-feed in the NE quad to fire up and then the NW quad to wrap into NE quad.

Top
#1235200 - 28/01/2014 12:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5476
Latest WATL multi-model consensus for rainfall over the next several days looks impressive:

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5499/12181853984_e430d86afa_z.jpg


Top
#1235212 - 28/01/2014 13:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Ken Kato]
MareebaWeather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 15/12/2003
Posts: 1826
Loc: Mareeba 17 S 145.2 E
Online Marine radio scanner FNQ

http://www.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/11183
_________________________
----------------------
Mareeba - Queensland - Australia
[img]http://www.gorgecreekorchards.com.au/wx/gizmo.gif[/img]
Live Weather Data & Lightning Tracker

Top
#1235219 - 28/01/2014 13:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Catalpa Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/11/2013
Posts: 34
Loc: Magnetic Island, Queensland
Townsville port going on yellow alert soon

Top
#1235225 - 28/01/2014 13:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Maisie Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/03/2004
Posts: 1515
Loc: Bluewater Park,Nth of Townsvil...
Is that a bit of rotation on Satellite Visible, cant see it on Infrared but can see some on Visible I am sure. can someone have look and confirm or deny for me please.

Top
#1235227 - 28/01/2014 13:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 703
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
WTPS21 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 154.0E TO 18.0S 149.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.2S 153.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
154.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 153.4E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SLOWLY WRAPPING
INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS
ALSO EVIDENT IN A 282340Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 282340Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WITH WEAKER (20 TO 25 KNOT)
WINDS IN THE CORE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WARM (GREATER
THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT IN THE CORAL SEA ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR QUICK
DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE CURRENT ELONGATION, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE AND CONSOLIDATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290300Z.//
NNNN

Top
#1235229 - 28/01/2014 14:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
Love that description by jtwc. They are seemingly confident.
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

Top
#1235230 - 28/01/2014 14:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Latest 4-day synoptic out early from BOM:


Top
#1235233 - 28/01/2014 14:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
lawless Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2006
Posts: 123
Loc: Northern Beaches - Mackay
so ...... . they say no development ?

Top
#1235235 - 28/01/2014 14:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: lawless]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: lawless
so ...... . they say no development ?

yep, seems to contradict JTWC's latest as per 'Steamy' above.

Top
#1235236 - 28/01/2014 14:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Dodger Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/03/2010
Posts: 184
Loc: Kuranda
Thats best scenario we can hope for really. Lots of rain and less distructive winds is just what the doctor ordered. Farmers out west will be pleased.
_________________________
Nice tree.
I have the power of instant knowledge.
You have the assisted ability to take out my house.
Shall we call it a draw?

Top
Page 24 of 87 < 1 2 ... 22 23 24 25 26 ... 86 87 >


Who's Online
14 registered (Kino, Timbuck, Weather_Viewer, Markus, Snapper22lb, RC, snowbooby, DMK, GringosRain, DaveM, Sidney, Eevo, 2 invisible), 112 Guests and 2 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Chris #3, Cloudwatcher, dave-tsv, GuyH, Joshg, Prettybub, s016230, Sprouts
Forum Stats
29700 Members
32 Forums
24005 Topics
1503011 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image