Page 26 of 87 < 1 2 ... 24 25 26 27 28 ... 86 87 >
Topic Options
#1235272 - 28/01/2014 15:00 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
Out of curiosity, Ken, what would you say is causing the system difficulty in getting a well defined LLC at this stage?

Top
#1235273 - 28/01/2014 15:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Alexis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2012
Posts: 97
Loc: reunion island
I am no expert Loren. But there seems to be a consensus in a strengthening of the system in the next 24h to what extent is anyone's guess. But the probability of it getting any bigger than a cat2 are very slim.

Top
#1235276 - 28/01/2014 15:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Rainrunner Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 1353
Loc: Whitsundays
Things, i'll have a go while Ken gets his info together. I think the strong ridge along the coast is causing an unbalanced strong SE wind into the southern side of the system, thus causing an elongated LLC. If there was less wind on the southern side, it would have formed with that consistent inflow.
_________________________
Weather stations: Mount Julian and Proserpine Mill
Cyclone Chasee: Debbie 2017, Ului 2010, Dylan & Ita 2014

Top
#1235278 - 28/01/2014 15:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
If I had to guess I'd say you're spot on there Rainrunner. Which is why I think others are suggesting that if it could get a decent NW flow it might pick up.

Top
#1235280 - 28/01/2014 15:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25304
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
the models were predicting this low to remain weak and elongated until wednesday. people must be patient. its not all going to happen in front of your eyes within in a few hours.
the BOM said today was only a moderate chance of developing, high tomorrow. until the monsoonal flow to the north start wrapping around he wont get real kicking.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

Top
#1235281 - 28/01/2014 15:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Ken Kato]
Loren Avis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/12/2013
Posts: 83
Loc: Brisbane
Look like its not going to hit a CAT3 yet..???
_________________________
www.switchbanks.com.au/satellite.html is my favourite weather site. Women & Weather !!!!

Top
#1235282 - 28/01/2014 15:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3250
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Look at all that convection though associated with the Monsoon, you would think moist NW'lys would be ample at the moment as well. It will strengthen as Mick just said.Wednesday is going to be a big day.


Edited by Steve O (28/01/2014 15:17)

Top
#1235286 - 28/01/2014 15:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
The most recent modelled surface winds and locations for EC (top) and GFS (bottom) for landfall.

Unless it does something outrageous (which is possible) I would guess it will be an awesome rain event. If it rains hard and the big tides push up all the creeks and rivers there could be some reasonable low lying flooding going on about the NQLD coast. Coastal and estuaries.



_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1235297 - 28/01/2014 15:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5416
I'd ideally want the thunderstorm clusters to mass up more with this system to have a quicker chance at intensifying. At the moment, convection looks a bit sparse, thin and disorganised. The elongated shape of the system probably isn't helping it either.
Having said that though, the diurnal cycle of convection for TC's peaks in the early morning hours and decreases in the afternoon (opposite to most thunderstorms over land). So it's too early to tell whether the disorganisation of the convection is part of a sustained trend or if it'll pick up overnight. Like mick10 said, the models weren't going for this system to show much intensification til overnight tonight or later tomorrow so I'd wait til late tomorrow to start drawing conclusions.

1st image: MODIS shot (11:10 to 11:15am today).

2nd image: low level vorticity at the 850hpa level (about 5000ft) from CIMSS satellite data at 10am. In basic terms, the redder the colour, the greater the cyclonic or clockwise curvature of the airflow at that height. You can see there's still a long belt of it draped across the tropics inside which the system is embedded:

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5545/12183804133_e933ab3fb9_b.jpg

http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7353/12183803753_fa5d785c77_c.jpg




Top
#1235299 - 28/01/2014 15:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4146
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Tuesday 28 January 2014
for the period until midnight EST Friday 31 January 2014.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

At 9am, a tropical low was situated in the northern Coral Sea, approximately
870 kilometres east-northeast of Cairns, and moving southwest at around 10
kilometres per hour. The tropical low is expected to move in a general
westwards direction over the next couple of days and may develop further as it
approaches the Queensland east coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday Moderate
Thursday High
Friday Low
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtml
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


Top
#1235302 - 28/01/2014 15:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1141
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
Latest GFS now shows a Townsville crossing Friday on morning!

BSCH Page - 00Z Tuesday run

Keeps us guessing!
_________________________
Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

Top
#1235303 - 28/01/2014 15:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
Models will probably get confused with crossing locations a fair bit until there is at least a well defined circulation. If the LLC decides to develop more to the S, then it's obviously gonna change the impact location vs if it develops further to the North.

Honestly though, as long as that huge high off the NSW coast is sitting there, it ain't going South very far.

Top
#1235304 - 28/01/2014 15:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
tiger1980 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 155
Loc: cairns, edmonton
Gfs still looks like its north of Cairns to me???

Top
#1235308 - 28/01/2014 16:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Rainrunner Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 1353
Loc: Whitsundays
Thanks for your explanation Ken.
_________________________
Weather stations: Mount Julian and Proserpine Mill
Cyclone Chasee: Debbie 2017, Ului 2010, Dylan & Ita 2014

Top
#1235312 - 28/01/2014 16:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1561
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Yeah, a lot of it will hit here and there, but we really have to wait for a LLC to form and be defined before i think any of the models can possibly predict a path


Edited by paulcirrus (28/01/2014 16:22)
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

Top
#1235318 - 28/01/2014 16:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1141
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
This is kinda reminding me of cyclone Ellie in 2009, in regards to landfall predictions. Forecasts had it over Townsville/Lucinda mid-Monday morning for sometime, then all of a sudden she took a sharp unexpected turn to the west and crossed Mission Beach on Sunday Night. Huge rains to the south, Ingham flooded for a week, and the Burdekin Dam roared! Lucky this time round, the catchments are dry as a bone and any flooding shouldn't be as extensive at is was then.
_________________________
Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

Top
#1235320 - 28/01/2014 16:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Things]
justme Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 207
Loc: Pacific Haven QLD
Think and hope you are right Things Wether it turns into a cyclone or not we just want some rain in the Wide Bay, hoping the high wil keep it from heading south in a hurry.
Originally Posted By: Things
Models will probably get confused with crossing locations a fair bit until there is at least a well defined circulation. If the LLC decides to develop more to the S, then it's obviously gonna change the impact location vs if it develops further to the North.

Honestly though, as long as that huge high off the NSW coast is sitting there, it ain't going South very far.

Top
#1235324 - 28/01/2014 16:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Loren Avis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/12/2013
Posts: 83
Loc: Brisbane
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL and ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES
For people in the
Northern Tropical Coast and Tablelands,
Herbert and Lower Burdekin and parts of the
Central Coast and Whitsundays Forecast Districts.
Issued at 10:34 am Tuesday, 28 January 2014.
Synoptic Situation: At 9am, a tropical low was situated in the northern Coral Sea, approximately 870 kilometres east-northeast of Cairns, and moving southwest at around 10 kilometres per hour. The tropical low is expected to move in a general westwards direction over the next couple of days and may develop further as it approaches the Queensland east coast. The potential for the system to develop into a tropical cyclone will be assessed during today and Tropical Cyclone Advices will be issued if required.
Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, and damaging winds, with peak gusts in excess of 90km/h, are expected to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Port Douglas and the area north of Mackay during Wednesday afternoon. 24 hour rainfall totals in excess of 200mm are possible.
Water levels on the high tide are also likely to exceed the highest tide of the year about coastal areas between Port Douglas and the areas north of Mackay over the next couple of days.
Locations which may be affected include Hamilton Island, Proserpine, Bowen, Townsville, Cairns, Port Douglas and Mareeba.
Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.
The next warning is due to be issued by 4:35 pm.

WTPS21 PGTW 280300
_________________________
www.switchbanks.com.au/satellite.html is my favourite weather site. Women & Weather !!!!

Top
#1235327 - 28/01/2014 16:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25304
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 3:54 pm EST on Tuesday 28 January 2014

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Port Douglas to Proserpine.

At 1:00 pm EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
760 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 790 kilometres northeast of
Townsville and moving west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Thursday.

The tropical low, is expected to move in a general westwards direction over the
next couple of days and may develop further as it approaches the Queensland
east coast. GALES may develop between Port Douglas and Proserpine during
Wednesday afternoon and could persist into Thursday.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about
coastal and adjacent inland areas of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands,
Herbert and Lower Burdekin and northern parts of the Central Coast and
Whitsundays districts during Wednesday afternoon and should continue into
Thursday.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a storm tide is expected between Port
Douglas and Proserpine, mainly on the high tide on Wednesday and Thursday.
Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in
areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect
their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

People between Port Douglas and Proserpine should consider what action they
will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Low at 1:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 14.8 degrees South 152.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Tuesday 28 January.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

Top
#1235331 - 28/01/2014 16:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
tiger1980 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 155
Loc: cairns, edmonton
Is there a track yet?

Top
Page 26 of 87 < 1 2 ... 24 25 26 27 28 ... 86 87 >


Who's Online
8 registered (Petros, Nature's Fury, Mike Hauber, Snapper22lb, Colin Maitland, Pharbelle, logansi, BIG T), 389 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
alby, controler, NCSC - Antonio, puca
Forum Stats
29681 Members
32 Forums
23981 Topics
1501044 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image