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#1236658 - 30/01/2014 14:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 626
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
Going off surface obs, sat pics, radar AND the latest two advices from the BOM, the system IS and HAS moved west in the last 6 hours. Even JTWC says that in their discussion. Wishful thinking much????
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#1236660 - 30/01/2014 14:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
I do see that West movement element to it, but really still looks generally SW to me. What's your thoughts on a crossing location TSVWeatherNerd?

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#1236661 - 30/01/2014 14:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 626
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
You can't talk generally when things are this close to the coast. Any slight change can make a huge difference, especially when the BOM sit on their hands and leave stuff to the last minute. Then they get criticized. Lose-Lose for BOM because of idiotic public perception
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#1236663 - 30/01/2014 14:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Try this link and speed it up with the > button. Link should update and is a great way to see which way the thing is moving as it approaches the coast. Even with this its still a bit hard to figure out.

OSCILMET BOWEN 512KM LOOP 80 run.
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#1236665 - 30/01/2014 14:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: E-J]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
Originally Posted By: E-J
You can't talk generally when things are this close to the coast.


By generally I mean by ignoring LLC wobble, but it is pretty difficult to track.

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#1236667 - 30/01/2014 14:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Things]
BrisWeatherNerd Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 936
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Kedron, ...
Originally Posted By: Things
I do see that West movement element to it, but really still looks generally SW to me. What's your thoughts on a crossing location TSVWeatherNerd?


Well, I've said Hinchinbrook area right from the start - a couple of weeks ago (before even the models picked it up), and I'm tending to think northern beaches of Townsville - Lucinda seems the likely spot now.


Edited by TSVWeatherNerd (30/01/2014 14:47)
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#1236669 - 30/01/2014 14:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 626
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
Agreed. But I think a 42km divergence is hardly a wobble
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#1236670 - 30/01/2014 14:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 626
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
I seriously agree with you TSVWeatherNerd
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#1236671 - 30/01/2014 14:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
A Lucinda crossing would require them to extend the warning back North again, we'll find out soon I guess. But I'm not yet convinced (although I'd like to be poke )

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#1236672 - 30/01/2014 14:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
adam17 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/01/2002
Posts: 3260
Loc: Townsville - Queensland
Nahh.. given its intensity I doubt it will have much of an effect for those north of the system

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#1236673 - 30/01/2014 14:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12989
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
HELLO DYLAN!!

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 1:49 pm EST on Thursday 30 January 2014

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including
Collinsville..

At 1:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category 1 was estimated to be 235
kilometres northeast of Townsville and 290 kilometres north of Proserpine and
moving west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Dylan has formed off the north Queensland coast and is
expected to continue moving in a general southwesterly direction and gradually
intensifying, before crossing the Queensland coast between Lucinda and
Proserpine in the early hours of Friday morning.

The cyclone and a strong ridge of high pressure further south are combining to
generate GALES at times along much of the east coast between Cardwell and St
Lawrence. Winds are expected to increase further between Lucinda and St
Lawrence, particularly about the Central Coast and Whitsundays district, during
the remainder of today and extending to adjacent inland areas on Friday morning
with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour possible.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about
coastal and adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the
Central Coast and Whitsundays districts during today.

Coastal residents between Lucinda and St Lawrence, including Townsville are
specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide
today and on Friday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well
above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas
close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this
flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and
be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised
to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Lucinda, particularly on the high
tide on Thursday and Friday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the
foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should
take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to
help their neighbours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island
communities from Cooktown to Cardwell and from St Lawrence to Gladstone.

People between Cardwell and Mackay should take precautions and listen to the
next advice at 5pm.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Cyclone Dylan at 1:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 17.8 degrees South 148.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 987 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Thursday 30 January.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1236675 - 30/01/2014 14:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
PVW Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2404
Loc: Thuringowa, Townsville QLD
It's been named...

EDIT:
Posted warning, but Raindammit beat me to it!


Edited by PVW (30/01/2014 14:51)

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#1236676 - 30/01/2014 14:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Popeye]
Alexis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2012
Posts: 97
Loc: reunion island
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Try this link and speed it up with the > button. Link should update and is a great way to see which way the thing is moving as it approaches the coast. Even with this its still a bit hard to figure out.

OSCILMET BOWEN 512KM LOOP 80 run.


Looking at that loop it looks like the LLC regenerated itself north of where it previously was at some stage last night

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#1236678 - 30/01/2014 14:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Xavo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/11/2009
Posts: 1954
Loc: Airlie Beach & Brisbane
Welcome, Dylan.

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#1236682 - 30/01/2014 14:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3585
We'll see what the next track update looks like,

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#1236684 - 30/01/2014 14:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Popeye]
Cynister Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/12/2011
Posts: 53
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Try this link and speed it up with the > button. Link should update and is a great way to see which way the thing is moving as it approaches the coast. Even with this its still a bit hard to figure out.

OSCILMET BOWEN 512KM LOOP 80 run.


Cheers popeye (bookmarked). Even in that radar image Dylan seemed to curve in westward and it looks like the BOM agreed. They've really got a hardon for Ayr at the moment though?
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Stay safe everyone.

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#1236686 - 30/01/2014 14:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12989
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
What's interesting is that it wasn't supposed to reach TC strength until much later tonight, going by the earlier tech bulletin. Still has a lot of water to travel over in the meantime..
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Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1236688 - 30/01/2014 15:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Tempest]
Unsettled Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/03/2010
Posts: 216
Loc: Gordonvale
Originally Posted By: Tempest
We'll see what the next track update looks like,


On current form, the eyewall could be brushing Cape Grafton and they'd still have an arrow pointing to Ayr wink
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Then feed it rum, and sit back to enjoy the show.

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#1236690 - 30/01/2014 15:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
adam17 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/01/2002
Posts: 3260
Loc: Townsville - Queensland
Welcome Dylan.

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#1236691 - 30/01/2014 15:05 Re: Developing Tropical Low (99P, Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Alexis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2012
Posts: 97
Loc: reunion island
If the deepening remains constant until landfall it could reach 980hpa.

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