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#1234782 - 27/01/2014 11:47 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
Yeah, autumn, hah! Not yet, not by a long chalk. The yellow leaves are trees doing anything they can to stay alive. Some of mine have failed already, and are dead.

We return to the 30s today, and then 5 days in the very upper 30s come Wednesday.

and as Teddy said, yesterday was oddly hot, I was hacking down and shredding an overgrown Spirea, and had to stop because of overheating a few times, and it was only mid-20s.

That lovely southerly has been saving us, but as the high moves east, pulling that inland heat down to us as it does, that saving breeze will leave.

I'm still hoping that with all that tropical wet activity up north, something will push down to us but so-far, no sign of it.

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#1234787 - 27/01/2014 11:55 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Jon77]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4096
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
After last year's record heat on January 18, temperatures dropped back to average in Sydney and the rest of the Summer was mild to warm (temps close to average), humid and fairly wet. The temperature didn't reach 30 at OH again until March 22, with 'Summer' finishing in a 'mini heatwave' in late March.

Right now, there doesn't seem to be any heat reaching the Coast in the next couple of weeks, although Western Sydney will have some hot days. GFS seems to show us getting into a wetter, Easterly pattern towards the end of its run.

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#1234795 - 27/01/2014 12:13 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
Yep, getting another hit of prolongued heat after the mid January effort is cruel. Heatwaves kill.
People:
(Heatwave blamed for large spike in the number of deaths in Victoria last week) http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/heatw...last-week/26521

and animals:
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/vets-horror-as-80-cows-die-due-to-heat-stress/26538

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#1234804 - 27/01/2014 12:47 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1949
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
I think I remember there was a discussion on the WZ forums or maybe elsewhere regarding studies into heatwave related deaths. It basically showed that after the heatwave there was a fall to below average death rates. The conclusion was that those that died would have died soon regardless; the heatwave had effectively brought forward their time to die.

Once again I think I need to balance this thread and declare my love for Summer. It is January and heat should be embraced or at the least, tolerated.
Everyone has a thought for farmers and all the usual hardships for heat and drought. BUT. The past couple of days on the coast have been pretty ordinary. All those small businesses that heavily rely on Summer tourism and day trippers suffer too especially when long weekends get crappy weather. The local rag, The Manly Daily, invariably has the doing it tough stories when ice cream vendors and the like are shat on by cool, cloudy conditions keeping visitors away.

There's a flip side to every coin.

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#1234820 - 27/01/2014 13:47 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5701
Loc: Dural
Agree Kizz. All forms of weather affect people in one way or another. Being a builder, the heat and wet seriously affect my work. I can cope with the heat, and generally the wet, but sometimes both cost me money (sometimes thousands of $$$), while the cold never does. The colder months generally bring a more sustained run of finer weather (for Sydney anyway) except for the occasional ECL, which can be a killer in my industry.

Anyway, all this talk of autumnal weather I suggested was also prefaced by me knowing that it was a day (night) long event and was not expecting any further respite for quite some time. I agree with Humphrey that about mid March is when I start getting really excited that summer is soon coming to an end. April and May are my favourite months of the year.

Homer

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#1234833 - 27/01/2014 14:13 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4096
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
April and May in Sydney can be a famine or a feast for sun lovers and rain lovers. They are free of heat and, except for the second half of May free of cold. You can get long sequences of warm, sunny days with crisp mornings, but some years the rain just won't go away.

Last year we got both - 200mm of rain in the first 3 weeks of April, followed by a 30 day dry spell, with the rain returning in late May and staying for June.

And of course it always seems to rain at Easter.

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#1234892 - 27/01/2014 16:19 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Canberra's Weather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/11/2005
Posts: 1141
Loc: Canberra
Yeah Kizz but the cool and cloudy conditions is the lesser of the 2 evils when it comes to a choice between heat and cold.
_________________________
Stop the Hot

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#1234896 - 27/01/2014 16:28 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
There's a strong correlation between a favourable opinion of summer and proximity to the coast on this forum, which is understandable. Beacon Hill is very different to Baulkham Hills (and Dural).

April-May is when I would recommend a trip to Sydney- with the caveat of rain as pointed out. In April you can still swim in warm water temperatures, whilst May with its low 20s temps, light winds and soft sunshine is ideal for sightseeing.

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#1234899 - 27/01/2014 16:38 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Canberra's Weather]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1949
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Originally Posted By: Canberra's Weather
Yeah Kizz but the cool and cloudy conditions is the lesser of the 2 evils when it comes to a choice between heat and cold.


Tell that to the shop owner who is losing money and their casual staff (school kids trying to save some money) getting laid off.

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#1235080 - 27/01/2014 23:20 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
Damn! Ice cream vendors are doing it tough because it's not hot enough in Sydney! That's terrible! That hundred-odd extra deaths in Victoria due to the heatwave are NOTHING compared to this. What will those schoolkids do for pocket money? Don't know about you guys, but I'm going to lose sleep worrying about this.

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#1235118 - 28/01/2014 08:21 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: ant]
snowforus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/07/2012
Posts: 384
Loc: Lithgow 945m a.s.l. (Central T...
What do they do in winter anyway?
_________________________
It's a long time between snowfalls these days, but I'm always optimistic.
New England Minerals Blog: http://johnsnewenglandminerals.blogspot.com.au
Blue Mountains Blog: http://johnsbluemountainsblog.blogspot.com.au

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#1235119 - 28/01/2014 08:24 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1949
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Don't worry too much Ant. Fingers crossed that this heatwave goes for much longer and spreads to the NSW coast and then the crowds will flock to the Summer hot spots with their bulging wallets.

It warms my heart that you care so much about places apart from your own region.

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#1235135 - 28/01/2014 09:12 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
I don't care at all about ice cream sellers, when literally hundreds of people who would have been alive, are dead, because of a prolongued heatwave. Not one jot do I care. The coming 2-week heatwave for the inland will carry off hundreds more people, plus untold numbers of animals. That's what I care about.

I realise I'm biting your regular trolling, Kizz, and I apologise to other readers for that. Most of the time, we all have more restraint.

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#1235159 - 28/01/2014 10:25 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10130
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
We have an excellent Ice Cream shop here (Annies - all locally made etc) that goes well summer and winter. Seems us Bathurstians just like ice cream no matter the weather. smile

I went to the Turon River yesterday (2nd major stream of the region after the Macquarie). It is DRY it is not running - nowhere near running. I was absolutely shocked, I'm not aware of it eve being as dry as it is now. It is individual pools with lots of lengths of rock and stony banks in between, sometimes 100 metres between pools. Absolutely unbelievable.

I spoke to a local of many years at Sofala who said they had NEVER seen the river like that.

The paltry 8mm we had last week was an insult!!

We have more heat coming, no cool or wet in sight. Not enjoying this summer. It's been too hot and too dry too long. (OUT HERE)

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#1235179 - 28/01/2014 11:29 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
davidg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/06/2008
Posts: 2234
Loc: Glenbrook/Penrith
Same here in the lower BM's DaveM. January should come in around average temperature wise despite the heatwave earlier this month but the main concern is rainfall.

More often than not February/March/April delivers the goods though so fingers crossed we get some sort prolonged wet/cool period. Not concerned for the garden as i can keep it going with the hose (however annoying) but the bushland down this way is tinder dry. Wouldn't take much to set it all off again.


Edited by davidg (28/01/2014 11:31)

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#1235205 - 28/01/2014 13:05 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4096
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney looks like finishing the month close to or slightly above average for temperatures, from the Coast to Penrith (using 1981-2010 average for OH).

There's no more rain forecast for the month so January at OH will probably finish with less than 20% of the average rainfall. December and January combined will likely finish with under 50mm, about 28% of the average. It's very dry around Sydney now, in spite of a couple of spells of cooler, cloudy weather with light showers. I don't think I've seen a thunderstorm since December 20.

With four mostly sunny days remaining, sunshine hours will finish a little above the average of 7.5 hours per day.

Sun and blue skies here, about 27 degrees with sea gales. The temperature might drift up another degree or so.


Edited by Steve777 (28/01/2014 13:11)
Edit Reason: Sunshine

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#1235289 - 28/01/2014 15:27 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Steve777]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1949
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Sydney looks like finishing the month close to or slightly above average for temperatures, from the Coast to Penrith (using 1981-2010 average for OH).


Are they from some of your own calculations? I noticed that the BoM calendar now lists the average January maximum for Sydney (OH) as 27.0C. I have been meaning to crunch the numbers to see how they get that number as the calendar averages for OH get bumped up every year or two.

There was a piece on the WeatherBrains podcast just recently (episode 414) where they explained how the 'normal' means the average of the past 30 years. They were referring to the USA but it may be because they are following global WMO standard practice. I think they update this every decade rather than year on year. Your mention of the 1981-2010 period does seem to correlate with this.

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#1235309 - 28/01/2014 16:15 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: kizz]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4096
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I was using averages for 1981-2010. For Observatory Hill for January that's a min/max of 19.6 - 26.5:

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/cvg/a...sizebutt=normal

In fact, in terms on temperatures, today at OH has been spot-on 'average'.

Sydney Airport January averages are 19.5 to 27.0 for the same period. When I saw 'Sydney's' average in the BOM calendar I was assuming it was referring to the Airport.

For OH, not so much for Summer but for most of the year, the time before about 1960 seems to have been a different country, so I think the most recent 30 year period is the most relevant for comparing current weather and also for comparing with other sites that only have short records.

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#1235311 - 28/01/2014 16:21 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: DaveM]
Jon77 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/04/2012
Posts: 447
Originally Posted By: DaveM
We have an excellent Ice Cream shop here (Annies - all locally made etc) that goes well summer and winter. Seems us Bathurstians just like ice cream no matter the weather. smile

I went to the Turon River yesterday (2nd major stream of the region after the Macquarie). It is DRY it is not running - nowhere near running. I was absolutely shocked, I'm not aware of it eve being as dry as it is now. It is individual pools with lots of lengths of rock and stony banks in between, sometimes 100 metres between pools. Absolutely unbelievable.

I spoke to a local of many years at Sofala who said they had NEVER seen the river like that.

The paltry 8mm we had last week was an insult!!

We have more heat coming, no cool or wet in sight. Not enjoying this summer. It's been too hot and too dry too long. (OUT HERE)


I think I know the ice cream place you mean, on the corner near the carillon park? Me and my son go there every time we are up there.

As for the Turon River, one of our favourite drives over the years has been up to Hill End way via Sofala / Turondale. The Turon River totally stopped flowing and went dry in I think either late 2002 or early 2003. It was in that drought we had at the time that culminated in those bad bushfires that hit Canberra. Surprised the Sofala locals can't remember it like that as it does happen.

It brought a tear to a relatives eye as he loves it out that way and wants his ashes scattered on that river when he pops off!


Edited by Jon77 (28/01/2014 16:23)

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#1235314 - 28/01/2014 16:28 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: davidg]
Jon77 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/04/2012
Posts: 447
Originally Posted By: davidg
Same here in the lower BM's DaveM. January should come in around average temperature wise despite the heatwave earlier this month but the main concern is rainfall.

More often than not February/March/April delivers the goods though so fingers crossed we get some sort prolonged wet/cool period. Not concerned for the garden as i can keep it going with the hose (however annoying) but the bushland down this way is tinder dry. Wouldn't take much to set it all off again.


Yep, did a short bush walk near Blaxland this weekend and is about as dry as I have seen it at this time of year since the early 2000's I think. Still plenty of snake activity also, seen a few good brownies.

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