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#1235237 - 28/01/2014 14:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1190
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Apparently one of the radio stations said it would make landfall tonight and that there was significant rain up north now.

So if the 'low' is still 3.5 days off making landfall, what is the large cloud mass over the top of north QLD that I can see on the satellite image above? Is it related to the 'low'? Sorry, just confusing having the two cloud masses moving away from each other up there, the satellite and the MTSAT look very interesting anyway.
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#1235241 - 28/01/2014 14:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Loren Avis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/12/2013
Posts: 83
Loc: Brisbane
Dont think it will hit Cairns at all.... more likely to go South - Flying there tomorrow for a police conference - no flight delays at all.
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#1235242 - 28/01/2014 14:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
cheekeymonkey Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 176
Loc: Yorkeys Knob, Cairns
Just had a look at the Weipa 512km radar & can't see too much that looks significant at the moment

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#1235243 - 28/01/2014 14:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Lani]
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 703
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
What you are seeing there is convection along the Monsoon Trough.

The LOW is still connected to the Monsoon Trough.

Originally Posted By: Lani
Apparently one of the radio stations said it would make landfall tonight and that there was significant rain up north now.

So if the 'low' is still 3.5 days off making landfall, what is the large cloud mass over the top of north QLD that I can see on the satellite image above? Is it related to the 'low'? Sorry, just confusing having the two cloud masses moving away from each other up there, the satellite and the MTSAT look very interesting anyway.

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#1235246 - 28/01/2014 14:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
My place gets salt water inundation from a 1m storm surge above a HAT ( king tide ).

Gonna start figuring out a plan I think.
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#1235247 - 28/01/2014 14:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
slipperyfish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 1377
Loc: South Mission Beach QLD
Yeah Trav, I like it for our region at this stage. A slight westerly movement for a bit then a general SW curve as the land mass comes into play.

Personally I would like it further north so we get more rain further out west, but lets face it, we will take what we get given.

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#1235248 - 28/01/2014 14:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Dawgggg]
RWM's Daughter Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/12/2010
Posts: 1125
Loc: North Lakes, Brisbane QLD
Originally Posted By: Trav dawwggg
My place gets salt water inundation from a 1m storm surge above a HAT ( king tide ).

Gonna start figuring out a plan I think.


Yikes Trav you need to start sand-bagging or something - when are you guys planning on hitting the road?
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#1235249 - 28/01/2014 14:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Dawgggg]
RumGumby Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 16/12/2011
Posts: 12
Loc: Cairns
There is a nice Google Earth overlay available from JTWC here: http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

What are good websites for projected multi-model tracks?

Stormcast (GFS) had the eye passing pretty much directly over Cairns late Thursday from their latest run.

http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/stormcast.html?ops=gfs:2014012718:2014013006:qld:s700:null:0#sc


Edited by RumGumby (28/01/2014 14:29)

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#1235250 - 28/01/2014 14:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
Man it's looking horrible out there, really needs to get some formation going if it's gonna make TC status frown

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#1235251 - 28/01/2014 14:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Loren Avis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/12/2013
Posts: 83
Loc: Brisbane
Does that mean when an eye is above cairns its going to be nice and sunny....??????
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#1235253 - 28/01/2014 14:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12998
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
I don't know if it's just my eyes, but there seems to be a new Low spinning up to the SE of this system, and it appears to be moving to the SSE..

You can clearly see something on the animated infrared sat image.

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#1235256 - 28/01/2014 14:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Things]
slipperyfish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 1377
Loc: South Mission Beach QLD
Originally Posted By: Things
Man it's looking horrible out there, really needs to get some formation going if it's gonna make TC status frown


Yeah Things, it looks to struggling a bit, but there is still time. Even if it does make TC status it wont be strong, but looking at the cloud mass associated with it, should be some pretty good moisture for a few days.

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#1235259 - 28/01/2014 14:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
To be honest the LLC actually looks like it's pulling together, but no doubt that dry air to the South is making it a bit more difficult.

I think that's just the lower edge of the LLC you're looking at RD. http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=148.60,-18.82,2049

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#1235260 - 28/01/2014 14:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Loren Avis]
Alexis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2012
Posts: 97
Loc: reunion island
Loren, this thing doesnt have an 'eye' (Clear and defined LLCC) as of yet wink And it won't unless it strengthens a lot more. But every cyclone is different and the eye is an ever changing phenomenom (it can destroys and rebuild itself ). The only time I have been in the eye of a cyclone it was cloudy although we did get a few rays of sunshine here and there.
And it is far from certain it will be a direct hit for cairns....

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#1235261 - 28/01/2014 14:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
show_me_weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 125
Loc: Ingham
I think it finally starting to get a nice in feed from the NW and staring to pull together and starting to look organised, i think it looks like a seconday low from the outflow and the trough which is aiding the outflow and the strong SE surge


Edited by show_me_weather (28/01/2014 14:46)

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#1235262 - 28/01/2014 14:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Loren Avis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/12/2013
Posts: 83
Loc: Brisbane
So Alexis are you thinking its going to be a CAT 1-2 for Cairns region or forming to a stronger more serious phrase in a few days.
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#1235264 - 28/01/2014 14:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 626
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
Don't rule out the possibility of marginal cat 3 system for this one guys. Just remember Cyclones Ului's rapid intensification prior to landfall and the ingredients were not as good as they are today. I would say 970hpa at cross point.


Edited by E-J (28/01/2014 14:48)
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#1235268 - 28/01/2014 14:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5476
For anyone interested, here's a graphic I posted earlier showing all the potential intensity scenarios (purple lines) generated by data from the NCEP ensemble. Note that many models have trouble accurately forecasting TC intensity:

http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3800/12179667033_34de9891a1_b.jpg


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#1235269 - 28/01/2014 14:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Cybermouse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 285
Loc: Brinsmead, Cairns
Interesting to see if this low ramps it up a few notches in terms or organisation tonight. It's looked so messy up until this morning but nice to see some rotation starting to happen. Could be Dylan's swan song "Blowin in the wind" grin
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#1235271 - 28/01/2014 14:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dylan (Coral Sea) January 2014 - GENERAL DISCUSSION [Re: Inclement Weather]
Loren Avis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/12/2013
Posts: 83
Loc: Brisbane
Lol Mouse - I just hope it decresses and does not intensify due to YASI and the amount of destruction that had done on the land and structures of buildings - people were destroyed from that one.
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www.switchbanks.com.au/satellite.html is my favourite weather site. Women & Weather !!!!

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