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#1239016 - 03/02/2014 01:37 Developing Tropical Low 95S (Indian) - February 2014
FujiWha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 154
Loc: Moranbah
NRL INVEST - 95S

JTWC Advisory:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6S 126.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A 020239Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS A BROAD CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH THE PRIMARY DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A PARTIAL 020022Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 25 TO 30
KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
TROUGHTON ISLAND, ABOUT 40 NM WEST OF CENTER, INDICATE 20 TO 25 KNOT
SUSTAINED WINDS AND SLP NEAR 997 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 25S 132E. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD, SKIRTING THE COAST, WITH CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, HINDERED BY THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

Mods, please delete if this does not meet guidelines for creating a new thread.

Ta,
Fuji


Edited by Mick10 (08/02/2014 17:51)

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#1239021 - 03/02/2014 06:12 Re: Developing Tropical Low 95S (Indian) - February 2014 [Re: FujiWha]
MillnerNT Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/01/2010
Posts: 324
Loc: Millner NT
This low is looking very healthy in the JBG. Wadeye gusting to 38 kts. Pressure down to 994.6.

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#1239022 - 03/02/2014 06:27 Re: Developing Tropical Low 95S (Indian) - February 2014 [Re: FujiWha]
MillnerNT Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/01/2010
Posts: 324
Loc: Millner NT
IDD20040
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

PRIORITY

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Locally Damaging Winds, Heavy Rainfall, Abnormally High Tides and Large
Waves
for people in all Northern Territory coastal areas and the southern Darwin-Daly
District.
Issued at 5:00 am CST Monday 3 February 2014

Synoptic Situation: An active monsoon trough is located over the Top End with a
vigorous monsoon flow to its north. A tropical low 993 hPa about 45 kilometres
north northwest of the WA/NT Border at 3:30 am CST is expected to cross the
southwest Top End coast south of Wadeye this morning, then continue to move
inland over the Top End during the day with increasing monsoon squalls and heavy
rain as the low approaches.

Another tropical low 996 hPa south southeast of Mornington Island in Queensland
is expected to move into the far southern Gulf of Carpentaria this morning. A
Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this low - telephone 1300 659 211 or
www.bom.gov.au/cyclone.

Monsoon squalls with locally damaging wind gusts to 100 km/h are expected about
the coast between Daly River Mouth and the WA border, including Wadeye, during
this morning. Locally damaging wind gusts to 90 km/h are also possible along the
coast between Daly River Mouth and Nhulunbuy, including Darwin and the Tiwi
Islands during today.

Heavy rain over the southern Darwin-Daly District, including Wadeye, is expected
during today, which may lead to flash flooding.

High astronomical tides combined with strong onshore winds are likely to cause
the sea level to rise above the highest tidal level of the year across Northern
Territory coastal areas. These conditions are likely to persist until late
today. Large waves may also cause coastal erosion.

Wind gust of 81 km/hr was reported at Darwin Airport in the early hours of the
morning.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure loose
outside objects and seek shelter when conditions deteriorate. Driving conditions
may be hazardous - avoid flooded roads and watercourses. Abnormally high tides
could cause minor flooding at the coast.

The next warning is due to be issued by 11:00 am Monday

This warning is also available on telephone 1300 659 214 or on the internet at
www.bom.gov.au.

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#1239081 - 03/02/2014 10:02 Re: Developing Tropical Low 95S (Indian) - February 2014 [Re: FujiWha]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
OI BOM ?????????????????????? WAKE UP ?????????????????? HELLO ?????????????????????????

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#1239082 - 03/02/2014 10:12 Re: Developing Tropical Low 95S (Indian) - February 2014 [Re: FujiWha]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Looks a beautiful LOW developing fast. Running out of water though but gee got a surprise when I looked at that.

OSCILMET RADAR LOOP WYNDHAM
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#1239095 - 03/02/2014 11:01 Re: Developing Tropical Low 95S (Indian) - February 2014 [Re: FujiWha]
FujiWha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 154
Loc: Moranbah
Yes, looks more like a cyclone than Edna ever did laugh

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#1239108 - 03/02/2014 12:14 Re: Developing Tropical Low 95S (Indian) - February 2014 [Re: FujiWha]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
YEAH NT and WA this season just needed the Australian continent to shift a bit and we could have had a couple of nice TC's. Some of the nicest developed LOWS that just didn't quite have the time over water to really crank to their full potential. Goes to show that when the conditions are ideal it will go off out there. Another 10 weeks to go so no doubt we will see some amazing TC action soon.
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#1239297 - 03/02/2014 22:07 Re: Developing Tropical Low 95S (Indian) - February 2014 [Re: Popeye]
croc crew Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2007
Posts: 187
Loc: Maningrida, Arnhem Land, NT
Originally Posted By: Popeye
10 weeks to go so no doubt we will see some amazing TC action soon.


Yep, this year certainly has been a good one so far with some favourable systems developing. The next few days are going to be interesting up my way. It sure is nice to go to sleep with the rain pelting down and the sound of thunder in the skies around us - and the frogs croaking outside the house. This is what the wet season is all about.

Send 'er down Huey.

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#1239597 - 05/02/2014 13:07 Re: Developing Tropical Low 95S (Indian) - February 2014 [Re: FujiWha]
FujiWha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 154
Loc: Moranbah
JTWC Advisory:

(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8S
131.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
MAINTAINING A GOOD OVERALL STRUCTURE DESPITE CONTINUING TO TRACK
FURTHER INLAND. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK; HOWEVER,
THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK OVER, OR
JUST SOUTH, OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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#1239715 - 05/02/2014 21:53 Re: Developing Tropical Low 95S (Indian) - February 2014 [Re: FujiWha]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Seems like this LOW stands out the most across the tropics of Australia. I have read somewhere that it might continue west and pass inland through the Pilbara again and dump some more rains. Bit like the last one that came down through NT and across. Bring it on.
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#1239777 - 06/02/2014 08:02 Re: Developing Tropical Low 95S (Indian) - February 2014 [Re: FujiWha]
FujiWha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 154
Loc: Moranbah
JTWC Advisory:

ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZFEB2014//

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3S
132.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 131.9E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE LLCC IS MAINTAINING A GOOD OVERALL STRUCTURE
DESPITE CONTINUING TO TRACK INLAND. RADAR LOOP FROM HALLS CREEK
DEPICTS THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY SLOWING DOWN AND LOOPING BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE COAST, NEAR WYNDHAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON THE SYSTEM BEING
OVERLAND AND TRACKING TOWARDS THE COAST, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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#1239852 - 06/02/2014 16:43 Re: Developing Tropical Low 95S (Indian) - February 2014 [Re: FujiWha]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
BOMS ACCESS model pops it back offshore and down around the Pilbara, GFS has it meandering its way around the Kimberley, EC has it pushing Nth and then also cruising down inland. Interesting times ahead for this LOW. Hope it gives us a quick surprise because nothing much else on the horizon looks likely for the next 10 days.
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#1239923 - 06/02/2014 22:55 Re: Developing Tropical Low 95S (Indian) - February 2014 [Re: FujiWha]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
CMON you can do it. POPS offshore and give us a TC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.6S
131.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 130.1E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE LLCC HAS ELONGATED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
BUT IS MAINTAINING AN ORGANIZED STRUCTURE. THE LLCC REMAINS OVER
LAND BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
AUSTRALIAN COAST NEAR WYNDHAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON THE SYSTEM BEING OVERLAND AND TRACKING
TOWARDS THE COAST, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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#1239926 - 06/02/2014 23:02 Re: Developing Tropical Low 95S (Indian) - February 2014 [Re: FujiWha]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Even if it did hit the JBGULF it would have to have a big shove to the Nwest to clear it around Kalumburu to get it around the Kimberly coast. I really cant see this happening. Maybe approach the coast and swing west across the kimberley before sneaking offshore around Kuri Bay/Derby through the islands of the West Kimberley and down near Cape Leveque and Broome. It could be a good one for Broome maybe. If it can get offshore from here then rapid development is always on the cards and places like Bidyadanga, Eighty Mile Beach, Pardoo and even Hedland will be the places to watch. Could be a good one to watch.

If it shows it's form from day one again watch out. Should have been named on day 1 in my opinion.
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#1239943 - 07/02/2014 00:07 Re: Developing Tropical Low 95S (Indian) - February 2014 [Re: FujiWha]
FujiWha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 154
Loc: Moranbah
Come on "Cyclone Gillian", you can do it grin (shame you couldn't be a Cyclone Stan "The Man!")

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#1240003 - 07/02/2014 11:28 Re: Developing Tropical Low 95S (Indian) - February 2014 [Re: FujiWha]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Latest EC deterministic is close to supporting your theory Popeye. Just a little bit further and it will be off the coast.

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#1240005 - 07/02/2014 11:39 Re: Developing Tropical Low 95S (Indian) - February 2014 [Re: FujiWha]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah Sepo I think its game on. TC off our coast pushing offshore between Cape Leveque and Broome, intensifying and crossing down near Hedland. Even the EC ensemble is saying a similar prediction now. Lovely rain this morning to.
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#1240019 - 07/02/2014 13:00 Re: Developing Tropical Low 95S (Indian) - February 2014 [Re: FujiWha]
FujiWha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 154
Loc: Moranbah
Question for the more technically savvy out there, how much of a boost would this system have got when traversing over Lake Argyle which is a considerable body of water?

Going by Wyndham radar, she is trying her hardest to get back over water...

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#1240033 - 07/02/2014 14:14 Re: Developing Tropical Low 95S (Indian) - February 2014 [Re: FujiWha]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah good question FujiWha. I would say given that Lake Argyle is Australia's biggest inland body of water and the surrounding landscapes would be quite waterlogged it would have to contribute to at least keeping the engine room going. Water temps around late JAN were approx. 28-29 in Argyle waters so enough to contribute something. They might have cooled a little since all the rainfall inflows.

Current Lake Argyle water temps

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#1240036 - 07/02/2014 15:11 Re: Developing Tropical Low 95S (Indian) - February 2014 [Re: Popeye]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4152
Loc: El Arish
At 12:30 am CST [11:00 pm WST] Friday 7 February, another tropical low, 998
hPa, was located near 16.6S 129.5E, about 80 km southwest of Timber Creek and
moving slowly northwest. This low is expected to continue to move
northwestwards nearing the southern Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on Saturday, before
moving west into the Kimberley.

Likelihood of this low being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Friday Low
Saturday Moderate
Sunday Moderate

http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/tcoutlook.shtml
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