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#1243855 - 20/02/2014 16:10 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17520
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Cos it's only once in a hundred years.... wink
Still can't quite grasp the magnitude of that fall tbh.... Put another 1.5mm in the rainfall chart this morning and still had to look at the 100 from last Friday in disbelief..... Anyone would think its a typo...
Another perspective.... 1/5 of my annual average fell in 2 days.... In February....

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#1243863 - 20/02/2014 17:01 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
kgb007 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/12/2010
Posts: 1515
Loc: Hope Valley, SA
5mm from showers overnight, nothing today!

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#1243870 - 20/02/2014 17:37 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Max Record Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/04/2009
Posts: 1658
Loc: Adelaide
I've got 109mm for this month so far; only March 2011 (115.4) is higher since I started in December 2008.

Despite all the days above 40 and even 42, and going by forecasts no records will be set for the hottest summer; hottest first two months of the year; as Tim said, February, for any of minimum, maximum or mean temperature. I suppose record breaking summer sounds good for a headline though.

I've got another obscure record though, a record low minimum for the 20th of February set today (10.7, previous was 10.8 in 1942) It's also the coldest February morning since 19/2/1999 (10.0)
_________________________
2017: 124.2mm
2016: 680.0mm
2015: 392.8mm
2014: 450.4mm
2013: 470.6mm
2012: 426.8mm
2011: 518.2mm
2010: 549.4mm
2009: 459.2mm
Yearly Average: 460mm

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#1243892 - 20/02/2014 21:02 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Max Record Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/04/2009
Posts: 1658
Loc: Adelaide
The first 8 days of this year averaged 24.6
The next 35 days averaged 35.7 (11 days above 40, 18 above 35, lowest 26.8)
The last 8 days have averaged 24.6
The next week forecasts average is 26.0
_________________________
2017: 124.2mm
2016: 680.0mm
2015: 392.8mm
2014: 450.4mm
2013: 470.6mm
2012: 426.8mm
2011: 518.2mm
2010: 549.4mm
2009: 459.2mm
Yearly Average: 460mm

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#1243909 - 20/02/2014 21:56 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14865
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Looks like we are heading into a classic March boredom pattern of large high's and ridges as the monsoon has also carked it so nothing to really feed down into us, though there is an attempt from QLD for a bit but I don't like our chances to get much from it. Large highs and ridges, mild to warm conditions and briefly hot before cooling down again.

TS cool

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#1244211 - 22/02/2014 15:08 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1644
Loc: Uleybury
One of the better Rainbows that I've seen




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#1244249 - 23/02/2014 06:19 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Farm Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2009
Posts: 845
Loc: West Mallee SA
best falls from deluge a week ago in mallee a small place called galga had a whopping 161mm not sure if that was states highest plenty in the area scored 150 so say its true
_________________________
Average Rainfall 340mm

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#1244393 - 24/02/2014 12:30 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17520
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Great article from Rex Jory in today's paper...
adelaide-would-suffer-unimaginable-damage-if-the-wake-of-a-100year-flood

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#1244424 - 24/02/2014 15:30 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2077
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Looks like perfect weather for Clipsal 500 and more to come next week then mother nature can dump a whole load of rain on the LSE for all i care in the 3rd week of March :-)

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#1244453 - 24/02/2014 18:56 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14865
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Easterly dip on models is having a fair crack at us in a week...

TS cool

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#1244472 - 24/02/2014 21:12 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1644
Loc: Uleybury
Rex Jory makes a good point, this City will be a disaster zone if anything like that were to hit, a few years ago (think 2009), a single cell dumped 25mm in the space of 30 minutes and areas flooded, January 7 2012, Elizabeth regions flooded when 40mm fell in the space of 30 minutes and back in February 2011 both on a Friday, my area got smacked with 2 dumps of 28mm and 34mm and were less than 25 mintues, we need better drainage systems, don't know about what you guys think but the rate we're going, over the last few years, we've been getting some goof falls of rain that fall in small and that is likely to continue, we've had plenty of warning signs from previous weather events.

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#1244615 - 25/02/2014 22:21 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1689
Great pics guys. Easterly dip towards weekend but upper trough progged by the models for south east OZ earlier on has weakened by the look of recent runs should be enough instability around though. Fingers crossed.
_________________________
Come and check out my weather page on facebook https://www.facebook.com/JohnsWeatherChannelJwc?ref=hl

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#1244725 - 26/02/2014 22:28 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1644
Loc: Uleybury
Browsing through some of the other forums around the place and stumbled across a map.

The same type of map appeared here in the forum about the heatwave http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1228529/22
right at the bottom - the Fire forecast,
Does anyone know the website link?

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#1244791 - 27/02/2014 12:36 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17520
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
That's Ken's own forecast scripts he uses... not publicly accessible. (although much of the data (ingredients) he uses is)

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#1244808 - 27/02/2014 15:37 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1644
Loc: Uleybury
Oh okay,

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/thunder-and-heat-creeping-further-south-in-sa/26990

Report saying that early next week may be thundery for the eastern parts of the state and potentially come as far as Adelaide.

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#1244856 - 27/02/2014 20:07 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Max Record Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/04/2009
Posts: 1658
Loc: Adelaide
Unless this is stolen from this post, you are unlikely to hear that using the forecast temperature tomorrow, this will be the coldest 2nd half of February in 50 years, so far as maximum temperatures go:

1949 23.22
1952 23.59
1940 23.97
1924 24.14
1954 24.31
1964 24.49
1945 24.59
1946 24.63
2014 24.66
1928 24.88
_________________________
2017: 124.2mm
2016: 680.0mm
2015: 392.8mm
2014: 450.4mm
2013: 470.6mm
2012: 426.8mm
2011: 518.2mm
2010: 549.4mm
2009: 459.2mm
Yearly Average: 460mm

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#1244859 - 27/02/2014 20:36 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17520
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Love your work Kyle. And yer won't hear anything about that tomorrow, mainly cos it mentions the c word.... wink

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#1244898 - 27/02/2014 23:12 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Max Record Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/04/2009
Posts: 1658
Loc: Adelaide
I'll give you more c-word records! This is equivalent minimum and mean for the same period:

Minimum:
1954 13.35
1891 13.46
1952 13.50
1924 13.57
1918 13.76
1940 13.89
1932 13.95
1903 14.07
1888 14.17
1949 14.60
2014 14.64

Mean:
1952 18.54
1954 18.83
1924 18.85
1949 18.91
1940 18.93
1891 19.31
2014 19.65
1964 19.68
1928 19.79
1903 19.79


These final figures will of course not be known until 9am Saturday, but with the forecasted temps included, is where they stand now.
_________________________
2017: 124.2mm
2016: 680.0mm
2015: 392.8mm
2014: 450.4mm
2013: 470.6mm
2012: 426.8mm
2011: 518.2mm
2010: 549.4mm
2009: 459.2mm
Yearly Average: 460mm

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#1245003 - 28/02/2014 17:02 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
kgb007 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/12/2010
Posts: 1515
Loc: Hope Valley, SA
Amazing month Feb has been! Started out blazing hot heading for possibly hottest Feb on record, then we get slammed by storm force gully winds, then pounded by a tropical low and flooding in the streets, and rounded out by below average temps for the second half! Half way through Feb my average max was around 35C, have finished off the month being about half a degree below average for both max and min! What will March bring I wonder?

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#1245157 - 01/03/2014 15:49 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1644
Loc: Uleybury
I think the weatherzone news story got it wrong again..., "All Capital Cities experienced hotter and drier conditions except Darwin"
I know that Adelaide had a warmer summer than normal but I don't think with drier, 124.6 mm for the summer with the average being 61.4 mm (26.4 mm for both Dec and Jan).
The Seasonal report does state that it was dry for the first 2 months but I wouldn't say it being a "drier" summer but then again if you take out Feb's big dump then it'll be drier but that's my opinion.

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