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#1246027 - 06/03/2014 08:02 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Coral Sea) - March 2014 [Re: Dawgggg]
psychlonique Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/02/2011
Posts: 194
Loc: Annandale Qld
Originally Posted By: Trav dawwggg
Originally Posted By: Catalpa
Looking at the earth wind map nullschool.net, the low has definitely moved south from where it was this morning


The earth wind is not real time I think. Im pretty sure it runs of gfs

EC keeps it offshore
GFS nails between tsv and Mackay. Like it has all week.


This was a very short take on things for you Trav...are you giving up on this low lol.

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#1246028 - 06/03/2014 08:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Coral Sea) - March 2014 [Re: Mick10]
Rainrunner Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 1331
Loc: Whitsundays
After hovering around in almost the same location for the past week, the low is definately looking like its on the moooove SW ...

Here's a comparison from Tuesday arvo to now, about 1.75 days ago:

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#1246029 - 06/03/2014 08:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Coral Sea) - March 2014 [Re: Mick10]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2160
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Looking good RR
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#1246034 - 06/03/2014 09:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Coral Sea) - March 2014 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23525
Loc: Townsville
ACCESS R has a Cairns landfall.

GFS still is continuing to smash the coastline between Cardwell and Mackay

EC Ensemble keeps the system offshore, however some runs from the ensemble still have it crossing the coast.


ARGHHHHHHHHH coral sea !!!
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#1246036 - 06/03/2014 09:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Coral Sea) - March 2014 [Re: Mick10]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2160
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
This weather setup will make a fool of anyone who tries to predict (or model lol) it.

So complex


Edited by TESHUB (06/03/2014 09:11)
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#1246039 - 06/03/2014 09:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Coral Sea) - March 2014 [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17299
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Nothing like a good media release and footage of devastation in Althea to get people panic buying. Disgraceful media.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queen...ub_uid=76372169
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#1246043 - 06/03/2014 10:00 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Coral Sea) - March 2014 [Re: Mick10]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
Definitely a lot more consolidation this morning. Hopefully this thing bombs now grin

The winds are already a lot more consistent on each side, moreso than even Dylan, it's just quite elongated right now.

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#1246058 - 06/03/2014 11:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Coral Sea) - March 2014 [Re: Mick10]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2160
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Crazy elongation - squashed appearance
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#1246059 - 06/03/2014 11:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Coral Sea) - March 2014 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24719
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
i might be reading too much into it. but yesterday the BOM were only going for 35knot coastal winds for the townsville waters district. now that has been updated to include areas south of cairns and north of mackay. is this meaning they are thinking it will get closer to the coast on saturday, and further north?
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April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
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#1246061 - 06/03/2014 11:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Coral Sea) - March 2014 [Re: Mick10]
RWM's Daughter Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/12/2010
Posts: 1125
Loc: North Lakes, Brisbane QLD
Originally Posted By: Mick10
i might be reading too much into it. but yesterday the BOM were only going for 35knot coastal winds for the townsville waters district. now that has been updated to include areas south of cairns and north of mackay. is this meaning they are thinking it will get closer to the coast on saturday, and further north?


One can only hope and dream Mick10 lol smile
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#1246063 - 06/03/2014 12:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Coral Sea) - March 2014 [Re: Mick10]
Mr_Billiam Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 21
Loc: Townsville
Maybe that's their response to the most recent ACCESS-R model run that's showing it crossing the coast around Cairns?

http://www.bom.gov.au/charts_data/IDY203....png?1394042400


Edited by bbbbk (06/03/2014 12:03)

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#1246065 - 06/03/2014 12:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Coral Sea) - March 2014 [Re: Mick10]
weathermegs Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2010
Posts: 444
Loc: Edmonton QLD
Can someone post a link to the latest pics showing the elongation? I am on my iPhone....

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#1246066 - 06/03/2014 12:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Coral Sea) - March 2014 [Re: Mick10]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA

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#1246068 - 06/03/2014 12:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Coral Sea) - March 2014 [Re: Mick10]
weathermegs Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2010
Posts: 444
Loc: Edmonton QLD
Thanks things

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#1246070 - 06/03/2014 12:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Coral Sea) - March 2014 [Re: Mick10]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12542
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
All models seem to have the Low move toward, then away from the coast without crossing. Still can change though.
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#1246075 - 06/03/2014 12:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Coral Sea) - March 2014 [Re: Raindammit]
gazzatsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2011
Posts: 639
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
All models seem to have the Low move toward, then away from the coast without crossing. Still can change though.


All models? Don't worry about access and gfs then or the fact that some runs of the EC have a possible crossing. Yes the likelihood is better for no crossing but I think it's still game on. Thing is that most modeling has this low as being stronger at this point than it really is. Will be interesting to see if this has any affect.

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#1246076 - 06/03/2014 12:54 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Coral Sea) - March 2014 [Re: Mick10]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4272
Loc: Brisbane
I think the biggest concern would be if it stalls just off the coast for a few days rather than making landfall and moving inland a couple of 100kms.

The rainfall totals in the GFS modelling are currently mitigated somewhat by the system moving inland and weakening. If it stays over water but very close to the coast then rainfall to the South of the system will be substantially enhanced.

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#1246079 - 06/03/2014 13:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Coral Sea) - March 2014 [Re: Mick10]
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3568
I agree Locke,places south of Tvll may be in for a very wet 4 to 5 days if it does stall just off the coast.

Currently GFS is showing a crossing, the other models are showing it to hug the coast and then move out, until it fully develops the models will chop and change.

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#1246080 - 06/03/2014 13:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Coral Sea) - March 2014 [Re: Mick10]
psychlonique Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/02/2011
Posts: 194
Loc: Annandale Qld
Wind Shear close to the coast doesn't look all that favourable...hope it will decrease over the next couple of days.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=sht&zoom=&time=


Edited by psychlonique (06/03/2014 13:19)

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#1246081 - 06/03/2014 13:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Coral Sea) - March 2014 [Re: Mick10]
PVW Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2372
Loc: Thuringowa, Townsville QLD
Originally Posted By: Mick10
i might be reading too much into it. but yesterday the BOM were only going for 35knot coastal winds for the townsville waters district. now that has been updated to include areas south of cairns and north of mackay. is this meaning they are thinking it will get closer to the coast on saturday, and further north?


I'm getting the feeling that the BOM may be expecting Future TC Gillian to get a lot closer to the coast than EC and other models are predicting.

The latest BOM Mackay CWS forecast is forecasting wind of 65 km/h with gusts to 91 km/h in Mackay at Midnight on Monday morning.

The worded forecast is mostly the same as yesterday, however this section has changed:
Quote:
Outlook for Saturday and Sunday:
Reduced forecast confidence; dependent on the development and movement of the tropical low...SE quadrant flow persisting, though speeds are expected to pick up to be mostly in the 25/33 knot range at least with 34/40 knot speeds a possibility from Saturday afternoon. Significant wave heights 1.5 to 2.0 metres, rising to 2.0 to 3.0 metres inshore and up to 3.0 to 4.0 metres offshore from Saturday evening. Showery conditions turning into rain by Saturday evening. Rain Sunday, possibly heavy at times.

Looking further ahead:
Reduced forecast confidence; dependent on tropical low...for now, expect very windy conditions with strong to gale force winds persisting into Monday ahead of moderation from Tuesday. Wet weather lingering with a good chance of heavy rainfalls again Monday; rainfall tapering off from Tuesday.

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