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#1247268 - 08/03/2014 19:15 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian (GOC & Indian Ocean) - March 2014 [Re: WANDJINA G'vale]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 865
Loc: North Point
I'd imagine with the onshore winds coming from the opposite directions that they would on the east coast, the bulk of Gillian's rain will be to the north.
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#1247299 - 08/03/2014 19:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian (GOC & Indian Ocean) - March 2014 [Re: Popeye]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Hope you don't leave the forum s-c..You are not a troll but a contributor to WZ. Don't pay attention to rude comments. Only need to appease the mods and owners..
I hate that word.. very offensive and bullying.

As to the most rain intense side of Gillian ( heaviest rain wise)

Here is a snap of ACCESS R showing the western side as most intense with rain. Have no idea why? The strongest winds are the n/west cross equatorial according to ACCESS wind streams



http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View






Edited by crikey (08/03/2014 19:47)
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#1247321 - 08/03/2014 20:11 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian (GOC & Indian Ocean) - March 2014 [Re: Popeye]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17913
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
? What word?

BoM's Cape track is based on the last ensemble run from EC ,GFS and UKMET all being in excellent agreement. Their Deterministic runs are all slightly west and keep it over water.
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#1247328 - 08/03/2014 20:23 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian (GOC & Indian Ocean) - March 2014 [Re: Popeye]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14156
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics


Now Gillian be a good girl and move due south for the next 48 hours and give all the drought effected farmers some much needed relief.
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202mm April 2017
Best 156mm 19/5/17
Oct 143mm
2017 Total 836mm
2016 Total 649mm
2015 Total 375mm
2014 Total 1032mm
2013 Total 715mm







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#1247332 - 08/03/2014 20:23 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian (GOC & Indian Ocean) - March 2014 [Re: Popeye]
fnq1 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/03/2005
Posts: 1503
Loc: trinity beach blue water
Agree cf all models going for a crossing over the peninsula to where nobody knows at this stage too early to tell. All I want if you have a different opinion then tell us why not that hard hey. Back up you're comments. I could say this thing is going to broome people will ask me why do you think that. Not hard. If you have the knowledge of weather then share it so we all can learn. Waiting patiently for next update.

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#1247334 - 08/03/2014 20:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian (GOC & Indian Ocean) - March 2014 [Re: Popeye]
fnq1 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/03/2005
Posts: 1503
Loc: trinity beach blue water
Yes sbt we are being greedy ATM when the farmers absolutely need it the most well said. I for one would love that scenario. It would be the best outcome this season.

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#1247343 - 08/03/2014 20:37 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian (GOC & Indian Ocean) - March 2014 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7776
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Did someone say Broome?? lol. Welcome Gillian. Now you be a good girl and get to at least a CAT 3.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1247349 - 08/03/2014 20:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian (GOC & Indian Ocean) - March 2014 [Re: Popeye]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17913
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
I've done a quick (crude) sketch to show where the deterministic models want it (last run).It's actually a little further east than that but you get the idea.



No good for our farmers either as it wouldn't go south far enough on that projection.
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#1247360 - 08/03/2014 20:55 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian (GOC & Indian Ocean) - March 2014 [Re: Popeye]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17913
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
IDQ20026
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued at 7:51 pm EST on Saturday 8 March 2014

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Kowanyama to Saibai Island,
including the Torres Strait Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Gilbert River
Mouth to Kowanyama and inland to Cape Grenville.

At 7:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Gillian, Category 1 was estimated to be
265 kilometres west of Thursday Island and
320 kilometres northwest of Weipa and
moving east southeast at 12 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical cyclone Gillian is forecast to move in a southeast direction over the
remainder of the weekend while intensifying. The core of the tropical cyclone
is expected to cross the west coast of Cape York Peninsula between Cape
Keerweer and Thursday Island during Monday morning or possibly as early as
Sunday afternoon.

GALES are expected to develop between Cape Keerweer and Cape Grenville,
including the Torres Strait Islands, on Sunday morning, possibly extending
further south to Kowanyama later on Sunday and to Gilbert River Mouth during
Monday.

DESTRUCTIVE winds of up to 150 km/hr may develop during Sunday afternoon or
overnight between Kowanyama and Thursday Island if the cyclone continues to
intensify.

Coastal residents between Weipa and the Torres Strait Islands are specifically
warned of the
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast late Sunday or early
Monday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal
tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the
shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should
take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to
follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the
authorities.

Very heavy rainfall that could potentially lead to flash flooding is expected
to develop over the Peninsula District Saturday night and persist into Sunday.

People between Kowanyama and Sabai Island, including the Torres Strait Islands
should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats
and property using available daylight hours.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

People from Gilbert River Mouth from Kowanyama and inland to Cape Grenville
should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat
increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Cyclone Gillian at 7:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 10.7 degrees South 139.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Saturday 08 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

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#1247366 - 08/03/2014 21:05 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian (GOC & Indian Ocean) - March 2014 [Re: fnq1]
Crystal Valley Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/01/2013
Posts: 269
Loc: Woopen Creek
Now this has my undivided attention!
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CV Weather Cam

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#1247370 - 08/03/2014 21:09 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian (GOC & Indian Ocean) - March 2014 [Re: Popeye]
Cape Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/01/2013
Posts: 6
Loc: Bamaga
Clouds are moving fast but still no wind at ground level here at bamaga
Raining off and on

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#1247373 - 08/03/2014 21:12 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian (GOC & Indian Ocean) - March 2014 [Re: Popeye]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17913
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Certainly not going west yet. 4 of the models on the deterministic run put it straight out into the CS. Most don't however.

_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

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#1247434 - 08/03/2014 22:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian (GOC & Indian Ocean) - March 2014 [Re: Popeye]
troycookie Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 13
Loc: Currajong, Townsville
Heavy rainfall off and on here in Badu Island. No flights between Cairns and Horn Island until cyclone goes through. I fly out to Boigu Island on Tuesday morning and I am not looking forward to a little Piper Cherokee plane in this weather.


Edited by troycookie (08/03/2014 22:26)

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#1247436 - 08/03/2014 22:29 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian (GOC & Indian Ocean) - March 2014 [Re: Popeye]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 875
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
If this Gillian is anything like mine you'll hear her chuckle just before she takes off across the room and makes landfall in just the place you don't want her.

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#1247490 - 09/03/2014 00:01 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian (GOC & Indian Ocean) - March 2014 [Re: Popeye]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24822
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 10:27 pm EST on Saturday 8 March 2014

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Kowanyama to Saibai Island,
including the Torres Strait Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Gilbert River
Mouth to Kowanyama and inland to Cape Grenville.

At 10:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Gillian, Category 1 was estimated to be
235 kilometres west of Thursday Island and
270 kilometres northwest of Weipa and
moving southeast at 13 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical cyclone Gillian is forecast to move in a southeast direction over the
remainder of the weekend while intensifying. The core of the tropical cyclone
is expected to cross the west coast of Cape York Peninsula between Cape
Keerweer and Thursday Island early Monday morning or possibly as early as
Sunday afternoon.

GALES are expected to develop between Cape Keerweer and Cape Grenville,
including the Torres Strait Islands, on Sunday morning, possibly extending
further south to Kowanyama later on Sunday and to Gilbert River Mouth during
Monday.

DESTRUCTIVE winds of up to 150 km/hr may develop during Sunday afternoon or
overnight between Kowanyama and Thursday Island if the cyclone continues to
intensify.

Coastal residents between Weipa and the Torres Strait Islands are specifically
warned of the
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast late Sunday or early
Monday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal
tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the
shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should
take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to
follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the
authorities.

Very heavy rainfall that could potentially lead to flash flooding is expected
to develop over the Peninsula District Saturday night and persist into Sunday.

People between Kowanyama and Sabai Island, including the Torres Strait Islands
should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats
and property using available daylight hours.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

People from Gilbert River Mouth from Kowanyama and inland to Cape Grenville
should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat
increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Cyclone Gillian at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 10.9 degrees South 140.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am EST Sunday 09 March.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
October 2017 total - 101.4mm (26mm)
November 2017 total - 0.0mm (54mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 807.8mm (1122mm)

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#1247494 - 09/03/2014 00:08 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian (GOC & Indian Ocean) - March 2014 [Re: Popeye]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17913
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

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#1247497 - 09/03/2014 00:09 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian (GOC & Indian Ocean) - March 2014 [Re: Popeye]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17913
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Nudged back south slightly on crossing.
_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

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#1247498 - 09/03/2014 00:11 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian (GOC & Indian Ocean) - March 2014 [Re: Popeye]
tiger1980 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 155
Loc: cairns, edmonton
Not looking great for us in Cairns atm, stock in the middle of it all

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#1247531 - 09/03/2014 00:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian (GOC & Indian Ocean) - March 2014 [Re: Popeye]
drivenunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 1995
Loc: Kewarra Beach, Cairns
Nah, it looks too far west for us to score rain. How can we have such bad luck to miss out on both events?
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Bring on the rain!!!

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#1247542 - 09/03/2014 00:37 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian (GOC & Indian Ocean) - March 2014 [Re: Popeye]
tiger1980 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 155
Loc: cairns, edmonton
Will probably be all different again in the morning, we may end up with the mother load... Very wishful thinking

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