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#1249722 - 18/03/2014 12:13 Re: Aviation, Flying, and your flying / travel experiences & photos / movies... [Re: tornadochaser_76]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome

Yep seems that way, big search started from OZ navy and airforce off the Western Australian coast..

Hope they find it soon...stop all the speculation wink shocked poke
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1249725 - 18/03/2014 12:19 Re: Aviation, Flying, and your flying / travel experiences & photos / movies... [Re: tornadochaser_76]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17705
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
The best hypothesis on the missing plane yet... and no conspiracy theories in it....
https://plus.google.com/106271056358366282907/posts/GoeVjHJaGBz

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#1249727 - 18/03/2014 12:46 Re: Aviation, Flying, and your flying / travel experiences & photos / movies... [Re: tornadochaser_76]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3838
Loc: Broome



Yes teckert that sounds plausible but leaves a lot of questions unanswered like a lot of the other theories.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1249728 - 18/03/2014 13:05 Re: Aviation, Flying, and your flying / travel experiences & photos / movies... [Re: tornadochaser_76]
rain gauge Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/02/2006
Posts: 4556
Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
The link Teckert posted In my opinion carries some weight and does explain a few things.
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June Rain. 127.5mm
YTD-557.1
2018 rainfall-1125.1mm





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#1249729 - 18/03/2014 13:16 Re: Aviation, Flying, and your flying / travel experiences & photos / movies... [Re: tornadochaser_76]
rain gauge Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/02/2006
Posts: 4556
Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
There was also the Value jet DC-9 accident a few ago when shortly after take off a fire took hold over the aircraft in just a few minutes. However I think that fire might of been burning before the plane took off. I don't think there were smoke detectors in the cargo area of those aircraft in those days.
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June Rain. 127.5mm
YTD-557.1
2018 rainfall-1125.1mm





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#1249787 - 18/03/2014 21:26 Re: Aviation, Flying, and your flying / travel experiences & photos / movies... [Re: tornadochaser_76]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5159
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Teckerts link is certainly the most plausible thing I have heard. Yes it does leave a few questions unanswerwed but what everyone has to remember is that problems occur on aircraft all the time. The reason they don't have crashes all the time is because they have so many built in safety and redundancy features. Every so often however(and thankfully very rarely), everything cascades and goes wrong together. Fast decrompression or fire issue may have made the pilots atomatically put all teir attention into saving the plane instead of communicating ad by the time they had some semblance of control it may have been too late to communicate(comms damaged) or stay conscious(CO2 or O2 deprivation etc). The chances of this sort of scenario happening is of course very low but it is also guaranteed. It will happen at some stage. As I said, that is how modern airliners crash.

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#1249815 - 19/03/2014 09:26 Re: Aviation, Flying, and your flying / travel experiences & photos / movies... [Re: tornadochaser_76]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17705
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Interesting & good to see that article being picked up a bit by mainstream media now too...

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#1249817 - 19/03/2014 09:40 Re: Aviation, Flying, and your flying / travel experiences & photos / movies... [Re: tornadochaser_76]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17705
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
and also updated with references to the new evidence re. radar locations and altitude readings...
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

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#1249825 - 19/03/2014 11:15 Re: Aviation, Flying, and your flying / travel experiences & photos / movies... [Re: tornadochaser_76]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23724
Loc: Townsville
But why would the pilots fly it above its max ceiling height to FL450????

Sort of screws that theory up. I read that guys theory 3 days ago and it was relevent then, but now? Im not as sure.
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2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1249826 - 19/03/2014 11:25 Re: Aviation, Flying, and your flying / travel experiences & photos / movies... [Re: tornadochaser_76]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5159
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
There were theories put forward in the article regarding that Trav. It is by no means a slam dunk but it sounds far more plausible that a plane being stolen and hidden.

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#1249827 - 19/03/2014 11:28 Re: Aviation, Flying, and your flying / travel experiences & photos / movies... [Re: tornadochaser_76]
rain gauge Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/02/2006
Posts: 4556
Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
I think people want the sensational conspiracy type ending to this rather than the mundane most plausible cause. I notice all the conspiracy nutters online dismiss this story for no reason of course.
_________________________
June Rain. 127.5mm
YTD-557.1
2018 rainfall-1125.1mm





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#1249832 - 19/03/2014 12:17 Re: Aviation, Flying, and your flying / travel experiences & photos / movies... [Re: Brett Guy]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
I guess if you allow for a set of circumstances that completely disable pilot communication with the outside world then some of what transpired makes sense.

But then you have an emergency that

1) Prevents the pilots from communicating anything of their situation to the outside world whilst

2) Allowing them to take a number of steps to save the plane before incapacitating them and then

3) Allows the plane to continue to fly intact for 6 hours afterwards after having accomplished steps 1 and 2.

This would I think require the most unusual emergency in aviation history and yet we should regard it as more plausible than a hijacking?

I can think of many emergencies over the years that might have singular aspects of the above but then key differences.

The Air France disaster so no communication from the plane but the aircraft came down within minutes of striking trouble.

Payne Stewart was killed when the plane he was in depressurised and the plane continued until it ran out of fuel and crashed. In that case there was no breakdown of equipment on the plane, no disabling of acars and no maneuvers by those on board to save the plane.

So my biggest question is what disabled the pilots who were apparently actively in control of the aircraft and trying to save those onboard (according to the Chris Goodfellow theory), at the same time completely preventing the pilots from communicating with the outside world but still allowing other systems to do so but then somehow allowed the plane to continue flying for another 6 hrs?
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1249834 - 19/03/2014 12:41 Re: Aviation, Flying, and your flying / travel experiences & photos / movies... [Re: tornadochaser_76]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5159
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Actually step 2 would be step 1. They would try to save the plane first then they would point the plane in the right direction to land it and then they would try and communicate their troubles to ATC. Like I said it is highly unlikely but what if during the time they were saving the plane and pointing it in the right direction the comms were damaged in a wholesale fashion. If it was a fire the smoke inhalation/co2 might already be affecting them and they switch to auto pilot in order to try and sort out their own safety. This fails and they succumb to the effect of the fumes. Fire is often capable of smouldering for a long time and if it is in the right areas/areas it could damage some but not all vital systems. Plane flies in direction set until running out of fuel. I know the chances of all these things occurring are ridiculously remote but like I said something like this is guaranteed to happen at some stage. It's a numbers game. It still sounds more likely to me than Evading notice in a 777 and somehow preventing all of the passengers from communicating anything over their phones, the landing that aircraft without notice and hiding it successfully from the entire world. If it was hijackers then surely someone would have claimed responsibility by now.
I would not discount any possibility completely but I know what seems more likely to me.

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#1249836 - 19/03/2014 13:04 Re: Aviation, Flying, and your flying / travel experiences & photos / movies... [Re: tornadochaser_76]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
If communication was still available I cannot believe that a pilot endeavouring to save their plane would not indicate they were in trouble.

So communications would have to have gone down first.

There are also reports that the planes diversion from its course occurred 12 minutes after the co-pilots last calm "good night".

That would pretty much shoot the Goodfellow hypothesis out of the water.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1249837 - 19/03/2014 13:09 Re: Aviation, Flying, and your flying / travel experiences & photos / movies... [Re: tornadochaser_76]
rain gauge Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/02/2006
Posts: 4556
Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
I guess you can pull apart the best scenario. But its still better than some Ive heard. Like all the passengers are a on a deserted island sipping coconut milk with a bunch of head hunters waiting to be rescued.
_________________________
June Rain. 127.5mm
YTD-557.1
2018 rainfall-1125.1mm





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#1249838 - 19/03/2014 13:17 Re: Aviation, Flying, and your flying / travel experiences & photos / movies... [Re: tornadochaser_76]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5159
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Did your actually read the whole article? It explained the standard processes that may have happened. What if they pulled out all the 'Busses'(I think that's what they were called, to isolate the fire then when they put them back in the comms didn't work?
12 minutes from goodnight to diversion doesn't shoot anything down. 12 minutes is a bloody long time. Do you remember the Bradford football stadium fire in the UK in 1985. That fire engulfed an entire stand in under 4 minutes. Things can often happen very quickly and again while the odds for this are extremely low logic dictates it will happen eventually.

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#1249839 - 19/03/2014 13:26 Re: Aviation, Flying, and your flying / travel experiences & photos / movies... [Re: tornadochaser_76]
rain gauge Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/02/2006
Posts: 4556
Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
yes I did read the whole article. IMO it's another possible scenario, maybe in reality it may of happened a little differently.
_________________________
June Rain. 127.5mm
YTD-557.1
2018 rainfall-1125.1mm





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#1249840 - 19/03/2014 13:44 Re: Aviation, Flying, and your flying / travel experiences & photos / movies... [Re: Brett Guy]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Did your actually read the whole article? It explained the standard processes that may have happened. What if they pulled out all the 'Busses'(I think that's what they were called, to isolate the fire then when they put them back in the comms didn't work?
12 minutes from goodnight to diversion doesn't shoot anything down. 12 minutes is a bloody long time. Do you remember the Bradford football stadium fire in the UK in 1985. That fire engulfed an entire stand in under 4 minutes. Things can often happen very quickly and again while the odds for this are extremely low logic dictates it will happen eventually.


And yet in the face of such a fire the plane seemingly flew on for 6 hours?

And being aware of a problem with the plane the pilots took a course of action that could disable their planes communication before actually telling anyone on the ground about the emergency?

Yes I did read the entire article and regrettably the many pages of inane comments that followed it.

I'm not saying the mechanical failure couldn't have bought the plane down but Chris Goodfellows explanation is far from being the most likely explanation.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1249843 - 19/03/2014 13:54 Re: Aviation, Flying, and your flying / travel experiences & photos / movies... [Re: tornadochaser_76]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5159
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
We don't know what sort of a fire it was (if it was a fire at all) Fire isn't always flames and immediate death. Some produce huge quantities of smoke and not much else and some will travel slowly before breaking out all of a sudden. Unless you can tell us what happened I don't see how this isn't a highly likely scenario. You completely ignore the statement I made about the fact that modern commercial airliners tend to crash when a whole pile of things go wrong at precisely the wrong time and in the worst possible order. That is the main point I am trying to make. One tiny thing followed by another and another and another and so on.
I am not saying this is definitely what happened but I haven't heard any other theory that even comes close to being as likely a cause. What theory is better than this one?

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#1249844 - 19/03/2014 13:58 Re: Aviation, Flying, and your flying / travel experiences & photos / movies... [Re: tornadochaser_76]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23724
Loc: Townsville
That its very unlikely that the pilots couldn't call a may day at all for 6 hours. Thats the biggest question


Why did they not call a may day?

Why did they fly to FL450?

Then back to FL230?

It all makes no sense and thats the only reason why I suspect foul play.
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2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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