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#1251406 - 26/03/2014 16:43 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4464
Loc: Brisbane
One of the strongest cyclones ever seen in the Southern Hemisphere, TC Monica, formed mid April in 2006.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1251408 - 26/03/2014 16:51 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
Gave you an excuse to go to maningrida hey locke
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#1251420 - 26/03/2014 17:08 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4464
Loc: Brisbane
Wish I'd made it to Maningrida (or not as it would likely have killed me given the lack of decent shelter). Sadly I only got as far as Nhulunbuy (very interesting town) which still managed about 150kmh even though the eye passed 80km to the North. best part of that trip was the plane actually flew over the top of the storm (must have been very close to its operational ceiling).

Interesting thing about Monica was that year went on to an El Nino event. Raises the question what comes first the chicken or the egg.

If conditions are heading towards an El Nino is a system out near the Solomons more likely to encounter conditions that send it West. And If a system does head West at this time of year will it generate another kelvin wave.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1251695 - 27/03/2014 11:56 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
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Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2366
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Maybe we can see more info of our next cyclone

http://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/march/fir...e/#.UzN1r86kstO


Edited by TESHUB (27/03/2014 11:56)
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#1252082 - 28/03/2014 18:35 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
Weary Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2014
Posts: 1069
Loc: Edge Hill, Cairns
Tell you what, with the increasing humidity and Northerlies it starting feel all cyclone seasony again
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#1252083 - 28/03/2014 18:35 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
Weary Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2014
Posts: 1069
Loc: Edge Hill, Cairns
Tell you what, with the increasing humidity and Northerlies it starting feel all cyclone seasony again
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#1252087 - 28/03/2014 18:52 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS is confirming that observation 'weary' . A significant tropical storm and cyclogenesis in the coral sea at 155E 10s( BOM jurisdiction) next Thursday 3rd april..
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1252089 - 28/03/2014 19:00 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
EC has an area of LOW pressure up around the Solomons around the same time. Long way out but hope there is one last system somewhere in the tropics. Maybe this one could form up in the Coral sea, head west across the Cape, then onto the Top End and then finish up over in the Kimberley. Ha that would be a nice present from you guys. Your last offering Gillian went to CAT 5 so send em our way. Thanks.
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#1252170 - 29/03/2014 11:04 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
Tempest Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3585
You can have them Popeye, I,m over this season (lack of season), looking forward to winter, it has been very warm and humid here so we could still see potential activity in the coming weeks.

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#1252359 - 30/03/2014 19:09 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS has the above mentioned low moving westward along latitude 10s this week arriving just off the far Nth qld peninsula and new guinea having morphed into a double yoker.
This low should get an INVEST by Tuesday. Expecting YASI to drop by soon with that news.
wonder how far west this low will go across the top of OZ..
Reckon by Friday there will be a TC watch for the peninsula area?

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (30/03/2014 19:10)
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#1252364 - 30/03/2014 19:40 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: crikey]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18424
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: crikey
This low should get an INVEST by Tuesday. Expecting YASI to drop by soon with that news.


Can you please clarify exactly what you mean by this?
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#1252389 - 30/03/2014 21:40 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
sorry CF.. ACCESS must be the only model calling this low?
ACCESS has the low taking more shape from tomorrow so maybe some convection might be evident then
checking..Notice none of the agencies have absolutely nothing.
Here is a snap of where ACCESS takes this low this week
It doesn't look like TC status but the gradient wind pattern looks like it will make INVEST stage if ACCESS forecast eventuates
No sign on the sat pic yet
The ts becomes a large TS near the nth peninsula and over new guinea at t = ~160hr

By YASI ,l meant member 'yasishak' who always posts the Invest and TC reports which l give thanks

Just following this ACcESS forecast

here is the low track map for this week



http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg

correction , l said position was 10s , update says 5s

Here, l will post a hot linked wind stream map showing TS


source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (30/03/2014 21:41)
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#1252394 - 30/03/2014 22:02 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
EC ensembles pick up an area of interest in the Nth GOC/Arafura Sea in about 10 days time. Whether it develops in to anything is yet to be seen. I hope so. To just end the season with nothing would be a let down for what has been a let down season. So lets hope something goes off with a bang in April. Can only hope.
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#1252397 - 30/03/2014 22:05 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
Things Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
Only thing going off with a bang this season will be everyones disappointment IMO grin

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#1252400 - 30/03/2014 22:18 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Things]
drivenunder Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 2063
Loc: Kewarra Beach, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Things
Only thing going off with a bang this season will be everyones disappointment IMO grin


The most profound and accurate statement of the whole season! What a sad state of affairs!


Edited by drivenunder (30/03/2014 22:18)
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#1252417 - 30/03/2014 23:06 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah I cant believe we have to wait until DEC for the realistic start of the next TC season. Seems like such a long way away but no doubt it will be here soon enough. Years seem to fly by which is scary.
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#1252585 - 01/04/2014 08:22 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18424
Loc: Burnett Heads
CMC has an interesting take on that trough. smile

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#1252606 - 01/04/2014 09:57 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
gazzatsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2011
Posts: 663
Loc: Townsville
This must be no less than the 30th cyclone CMC has forecast this wet season.


Edited by teckert (01/04/2014 14:31)
Edit Reason: deleted unnecessary comments

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#1252610 - 01/04/2014 10:37 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
AccessG is putting a small system on to the Cape York Peninsula, EC has an area of LOW pressure. I think Coldfront might be on to something. There is still time for another QLD 30knt CAT 2 before the season is out. poke
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#1252611 - 01/04/2014 10:41 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Popeye]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4464
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Popeye
AccessG is putting a small system on to the Cape York Peninsula, EC has an area of LOW pressure. I think Coldfront might be on to something. There is still time for another QLD 30knt CAT 2 before the season is out. poke


Another QLD 30knt Cat 2 that zips across the top end and winds up into a Cat 5 off the WA coast ;-)
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