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#1253933 - 08/04/2014 10:39 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
weathermegs Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2010
Posts: 347
Loc: Edmonton QLD
Waiting at brisbane airport on my way home to cairns. I was thinking about extending my stay here but just couldn't miss the opportunity for a potential cat 4 at my door. Let's hope it doesn't disappoint. I am like some others here... Cyclones are my passion. As much as I don't want destruction and damage I just love watching this all unfold. My first possible cyclone. I am itching with anticipation.

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#1253934 - 08/04/2014 10:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Trav dawwggg]
Dodger Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/03/2010
Posts: 164
Loc: Kuranda
Originally Posted By: Trav dawwggg
Originally Posted By: Dodger
Originally Posted By: Trav dawwggg
GFS ensemble and determansitic are pretty similar.

Man that trough in WA has thrown a spanner in the works!


In what way?
.

Ec determanistic and ensemble seems hell bent on Anywhere from Bamaga too cooktown, with some outliers pushing it further north and south of that.

GFS determanistic, well we know what thats showing. The ensemble however is quite close to the determanistic in regards to the trough influencing the system and re curving it down the coast.

Now we know EC is showing a re curve. However much later in the piece.

Its all gonna come down to how much this trough influences the system.

25 mins till next track.

I reckon watch by 5.


So with that in mind thursdays 11am track will be the decider of Itas path?
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#1253937 - 08/04/2014 10:57 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
TESHUB Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 1315
Loc: Tekowai Qld Aus
Wanting to see what it all means for Mackay a bit later in the piece

Will the remnants drift back out to sea over Mackay or will this Ita do a job down a portion of the coast to the Sth?

Could still get quite breezy down here
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TESHUB was the Hurrian god of sky and storm (the Anatolian area of central Turkey)

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#1253945 - 08/04/2014 11:16 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 75
Loc: Cairns, Qld / Kununurra, WA
Now Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita, Cat 3.

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#1253946 - 08/04/2014 11:16 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: RC]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 3464
Loc: El Arish
Originally Posted By: RC
I am more worried about possible repercussions on the price of bananas...


Yeah, if the GFS scenario came across....Mackays Banana's hedged their bets and started a plantation up at Lakeland so they could maximise Profits um production if another cyclone were to hit the Innisfail,Tully region.
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#1253948 - 08/04/2014 11:19 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: payshense]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 6749
Loc: Bohle Plains
Originally Posted By: payshense
Now Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita, Cat 3.


Should get hourly updates once they issue watches grin

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#1253949 - 08/04/2014 11:22 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Chookie Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/03/2009
Posts: 1582
Loc: Alice River, Townsville
Well it is very interesting to watch this cyclone, I still reckon it will dip even further south but that's just me smile

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#1253952 - 08/04/2014 11:32 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
drivenunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 1420
Loc: Kewarra Beach, Cairns
This cyclone has my attention. The others this year were boring but this one has my eyes all over it.
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#1253955 - 08/04/2014 11:37 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 2349
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
It certainly doesn't look like a three yet. No discernable eye on the vis loop but I guess the pressure means it is.

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#1253958 - 08/04/2014 11:40 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 75
Loc: Cairns, Qld / Kununurra, WA
Once Ita gets clear of that SE corner of PNG, and out into open water, Shouldn't she should really start to show her true form?

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#1253960 - 08/04/2014 11:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Ms Milo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 343
Loc: Angourie, North Coast NSW
TC Ita is shaping up to be a beauty.

Now correct me if I'm wrong but regardless of track maps and this that & the other isn't the whole idea of a severe tropical cyclone that it creates in essence it's own weather system and consequently can go where ever it likes if it's strong enough?

To clarify; you can attempt to predict a TC path all you like but it's end course / result can always surprise even the 'experts'
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#1253961 - 08/04/2014 11:45 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
pixelpixie13 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 64
Loc: Trinity Beach
Yes, I wonder how those png islands are faring. Any available obs from there?
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#1253962 - 08/04/2014 11:45 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 2349
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Thoughts go out to those on Tagula island. They are copping a flogging from this system and doing it for a very extended period of time.

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#1253965 - 08/04/2014 11:49 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1710
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
I am with Brett Guy, Hopefully they are OK as Ita has been hovering over them for a few days now.



_________________________
Parramatta Park Rainfall Totals 2014
2014 rainfall chart


MTD: 7.0mm
YTD: 2190.5mm

Jan 2014- 467.5mm Feb 2014- 496.0mm March 2014- 544.5mm April 2014- 433.5mm
May 2014- 141.5mm Jun 2014- 102.5mm

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#1253966 - 08/04/2014 11:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Hurricane force]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 3464
Loc: El Arish
In part from the tech bulletin.

Ita lies in a low shear environment with good upper level outflow. The system
is expected to remain in an environment that ordinarily would be expected to be
favourable for development, though allowances have been made for the high
terrain over Papua New Guinea, which may hinder development over the short term.
_________________________
We now live in a world where it is considered beneficial and necessary to spray poison all over our food and to add more poison (dye,preservatives,flavor enhancers, etc.) in processing our food. Then we take more poisons to counteract the poisons.

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#1253967 - 08/04/2014 11:53 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1710
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Watch her bomb when she gets away from PNG.
_________________________
Parramatta Park Rainfall Totals 2014
2014 rainfall chart


MTD: 7.0mm
YTD: 2190.5mm

Jan 2014- 467.5mm Feb 2014- 496.0mm March 2014- 544.5mm April 2014- 433.5mm
May 2014- 141.5mm Jun 2014- 102.5mm

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#1253968 - 08/04/2014 11:56 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
TESHUB Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 1315
Loc: Tekowai Qld Aus
Tagula weather

TMax: ≈ 30.5 C Cloudy with heavy rain
TMin: ≈ 27.8 C
Chance of precipitation 90 %

Wind: 64.8 km/h from NE
Gusts up 110.2 km/h
_________________________
TESHUB was the Hurrian god of sky and storm (the Anatolian area of central Turkey)

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#1253969 - 08/04/2014 11:57 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/05/2007
Posts: 2642
Loc: Clifton Beach, Cairns - Queens...
Yes Ms Milo you are very correct. When a TC gets to 3 or above they virtually create their own path apart from if there is a dramatic change in local conditions eg higher shear can tear them apart. Ita is one of these systems. The models can not accurately predict the track. With it stalling in favourable conditions it is anyone's guess where it will end up.

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#1253970 - 08/04/2014 12:03 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
daze Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 25/01/2011
Posts: 22
Has anyone seen the uk met track yet..?

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#1253971 - 08/04/2014 12:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 75
Loc: Cairns, Qld / Kununurra, WA
BOM latest track map.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita

Issued at 11:08 am EST Tuesday 8 April 2014. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 photo ita3_zpsdc46d23b.png

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