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#1253391 - 06/04/2014 00:43 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1712
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
GFS might be right??

_________________________
Parramatta Park Rainfall Totals 2014
2014 rainfall chart


MTD: 8.0mm
YTD: 2191.5mm

Jan 2014- 467.5mm Feb 2014- 496.0mm March 2014- 544.5mm April 2014- 433.5mm
May 2014- 141.5mm Jun 2014- 102.5mm

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#1253392 - 06/04/2014 00:57 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Trav dawwggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 21088
Loc: Parramatta
I guess the BOM beleive the trough will have more impact on the system than first thought.

Tech bulletin has it too 956hpa, and JTWC has it too 100 knots. Solid cat 3.
_________________________
<<<<<<SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA CHASE VIDEO >>>>>>>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCpJ-985lZM

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#1253394 - 06/04/2014 01:15 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 5786
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
BOM's track map has it moving west so how has the trough impacted on it. Running the Co-ords from the tech bulletin out to 5 days has a slight WSW curve but I think if anything the Trough might temporarily weaken the ridge for a period that's if it can even reach that far nth to where the TC will be located. Be a good one to see unfold but I just don't know how much it will move South of due west.
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Cable Beach 2013/14 Wet Season Total - 867mm

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#1253395 - 06/04/2014 01:21 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 5786
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
BOM tech notes.

+06: 05/1800: 12.1S 155.3E: 070 [135]: 055 [100]: 986
+12: 06/0000: 12.3S 154.9E: 085 [155]: 060 [110]: 982
+18: 06/0600: 12.5S 154.6E: 095 [180]: 060 [110]: 980
+24: 06/1200: 12.6S 154.4E: 110 [200]: 060 [110]: 980
+36: 07/0000: 12.8S 153.9E: 120 [220]: 070 [125]: 975
+48: 07/1200: 12.7S 153.4E: 140 [260]: 080 [145]: 966
+60: 08/0000: 12.7S 152.9E: 160 [295]: 085 [155]: 960
+72: 08/1200: 12.5S 152.1E: 180 [335]: 085 [155]: 958
+96: 09/1200: 12.7S 149.7E: 230 [430]: 090 [165]: 957
+120: 10/1200: 13.7S 147.5E: 320 [590]: 090 [165]: 956
REMARKS:
The Dvorak analysis of Tropical Cyclone Ita was based on a curved band pattern
with a 0.65 degree wrap with an added 0.5 for white band, giving a DT of 3.5.
MET and PAT both give 3.0. FT was based on MET as DT was not completely clear.

Tropical Cyclone Ita has developed gradually over the last 24 hours, though
convection has remained quite deep with very cold cloud top temperatures over
much of this period. The ascending ASCAT-B image at 1045UTC indicated that gales
extend out to approximately 120 nautical miles to the east and south of systems
centre.

Tropical Cyclone Ita is currently moving slowly in a westwards direction under
the the influence of a mid-level ridge extending across the central Coral Sea.
Ita should continue moving in a general westwards direction over the next few
days under the influence of a couple of mid-level ridges that develop across the
Coral Sea. However, a mid-level trough moving across eastern Australia on Sunday
should move into the Coral Sea by Monday and may temporarily halt the westwards
progression on the system for a period.

Tropical Cyclone Ita is in a favourable environment for further development with
low vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures greater than 27 degrees
along most of its forecast track. However, the system may encounter some
increased vertical wind shear on Monday depending on the strength of the
mid-level trough that is expected to move across the Coral Sea, which may limit
or could even temporarily weaken the system on this day.
_________________________
Cable Beach 2013/14 Wet Season Total - 867mm

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#1253396 - 06/04/2014 01:35 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1712
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Mid level troughs....Grrr!!
_________________________
Parramatta Park Rainfall Totals 2014
2014 rainfall chart


MTD: 8.0mm
YTD: 2191.5mm

Jan 2014- 467.5mm Feb 2014- 496.0mm March 2014- 544.5mm April 2014- 433.5mm
May 2014- 141.5mm Jun 2014- 102.5mm

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#1253398 - 06/04/2014 01:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 5786
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
BOMS 5 day co-ords put into Google earth. Bit of a WSW at the end. Maybe sipping cocktails at the pool on Lizard Island 5 star could be a nice chase place.

_________________________
Cable Beach 2013/14 Wet Season Total - 867mm

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#1253399 - 06/04/2014 01:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
AlanJ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2003
Posts: 902
Loc: GoC
I'm hoping in the longer term it's looking good for Groote!!!
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Davis Weatherlink.com
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#1253400 - 06/04/2014 01:53 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Chookie Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/03/2009
Posts: 1582
Loc: Alice River, Townsville
be nice to see this near home but that is me being greedy lol

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#1253401 - 06/04/2014 02:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Eevo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 383
Loc: Bridgewater
oh look, another rain cloud near qld they are calling a cyclone

maybe qld will get lucky this time and get a real cyclone this year.

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#1253403 - 06/04/2014 02:22 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Popeye]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1261
Loc: Kewarra beach
Originally Posted By: Popeye
BOM's track map has it moving west so how has the trough impacted on it. Running the Co-ords from the tech bulletin out to 5 days has a slight WSW curve but I think if anything the Trough might temporarily weaken the ridge for a period that's if it can even reach that far nth to where the TC will be located. Be a good one to see unfold but I just don't know how much it will move South of due west.


You've had your fair share of a dismal Aus TC season this year Pop's, all we've had over here so far is a couple of glorified tropical storms designated just to keep the numbers up for the sake of the global warming mantra.
This one looks like becoming a nice CS monster, but it's ours until we're finished with it, if your lucky you might get sloppy third's after the NT has had it's fun with her but for now Ita is all ours. smile
She is a little reminiscent of Monica but seems so far to be a lot slower moving and it will be interesting to see what happens in coming days, if she takes advantage of the conditions and builds quickly she could then choose her own track.
From watching over the years some of these stronger larger systems pay little heed to what is expected and make their own weather/way.
An interesting end to what has been a dull season for weather watchers so far anyway.

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#1253406 - 06/04/2014 06:01 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: marakai]
MareebaWeather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 15/12/2003
Posts: 1626
Loc: Mareeba 17 S 145.2 E
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Mareeba - Queensland - Australia
[img]http://www.gorgecreekorchards.com.au/wx/gizmo.gif[/img]
Live Weather Data & Lightning Tracker

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#1253407 - 06/04/2014 06:05 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
TESHUB Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 1315
Loc: Tekowai Qld Aus
Cooktown may become less sleepy in a few days time
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TESHUB was the Hurrian god of sky and storm (the Anatolian area of central Turkey)

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#1253408 - 06/04/2014 06:35 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Inclement Weather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 4738
Loc: Bribie Island
Welcome Ita
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#1253409 - 06/04/2014 06:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Trav dawwggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 21088
Loc: Parramatta
EC now makes landfall just south of COEN.
_________________________
<<<<<<SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA CHASE VIDEO >>>>>>>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCpJ-985lZM

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#1253410 - 06/04/2014 06:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 665
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Gfs still has it drifting down the coast. SST are still good Fraser north but marginal further south. Bring it on, give it all you got. By the time Ita maybe gets here, turning extratropical wont matter much. So, give it your best shot. Its all in the timing between systems so, Go Ita!

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#1253411 - 06/04/2014 06:53 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
TESHUB Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 1315
Loc: Tekowai Qld Aus
Looks excellent on the windcharts, some velocity happening now
_________________________
TESHUB was the Hurrian god of sky and storm (the Anatolian area of central Turkey)

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#1253413 - 06/04/2014 07:19 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Trav dawwggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 21088
Loc: Parramatta
Joint Typhoon Warning Centre has pushed it up too 110 knot gusts overnight. Thats 204kmhr. Not much more and shes going cat 4 by them.

Sustained 90 knots...WOW

JTWC has pushed the track much further WSW than previous track maps.

120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.7S 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 154.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 599 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
RECENT PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 051614Z SSMI PASS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES
AND PGTW. DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS IN THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 23P IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE SOUTH. THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF TC 23P IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A BREAK
IN THE STEERING RIDGE AFTER TAU 12. AS A RESULT, THE CYCLONE WILL
ENTER A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY
QUASISTATIONARY BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48. AS THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD, SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ITS
WAKE AND IS EXPECTED TO STEER TC 23P BACK TOWARD A WESTWARD TRACK
AFTER TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN THE NEAR TERM, AS
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS OFFSET BY CONTINUING, THOUGH
DECREASING, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POTENTIAL OCEAN COOLING DURING
THE ANTICIPATED PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY MOTION. AFTER TAU 48,
HOWEVER, GENERALLY STEADIER INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK,
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
QUASISTATIONARY MOTION IN THE MEDIUM TERM, FOLLOWED BY THE
RESUMPTION OF A WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, BASED ON
DIVERGING NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.//
NNNN


Edited by Trav dawwggg (06/04/2014 07:20)
_________________________
<<<<<<SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA CHASE VIDEO >>>>>>>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCpJ-985lZM

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#1253414 - 06/04/2014 07:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Popeye]
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3364
Loc: Mackay, Nth Beaches -YTD 985mm...
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Yeah I would feel fine. Always a chance to do so. I will keep out of it until it does move west if that makes you feel better. Looks good though tonight.


Doesnt bother me either way Popeye, its looking great on satellite.


Edited by Tempest (06/04/2014 07:25)

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#1253415 - 06/04/2014 07:28 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 1646
Multi-model track and intensity spread out to 5 days from yesterday's 00z runs of the models via the US Navy's verification system (ECM = EC, AVNO = GFS, etc). As always, the intensity scale isn't based on the Australian system. It's still going for a general westwards drift... although there's still some spread in the exact tracks:

https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3787/13651959205_30a514e848_b.jpg
https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3801/13651959025_5663f38897_b.jpg




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#1253416 - 06/04/2014 09:00 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 3421
Loc: Wynnum
If it decides to drift south or southwest it won't last long as the " too far north STJ, typical of El Nino like conditions " , which have persisted for most of this Wet, will shear off the top half and the bottom half will just wallow around, as have all east coast TC's this wet, bar one which was up near the Cape and out of the reach of the STJ.
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