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#1253418 - 06/04/2014 09:01 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Ms Milo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 343
Loc: Angourie, North Coast NSW
Team Ita. Keep it spinning hard.
_________________________
somethings gotta give

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#1253420 - 06/04/2014 09:06 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: retired weather man]
Sunsets Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/06/2012
Posts: 281
Loc: Magnetic Island Australia
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
If it decides to drift south or southwest it won't last long as the " too far north STJ, typical of El Nino like conditions " , which have persisted for most of this Wet, will shear off the top half and the bottom half will just wallow around, as have all east coast TC's this wet, bar one which was up near the Cape and out of the reach of the STJ.

thanks RWM

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#1253423 - 06/04/2014 09:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 665
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thanks RWM, didnt really want to read that.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (06/04/2014 09:27)

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#1253427 - 06/04/2014 09:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Hopefull Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 423
Loc: Burpengary QLD
I am reminded of the saying "be careful what you wish for because you might get what you want". What if we end up with slow to medium moving, Cat 3 cyclone, heading for say just north of Cairns crossing the coast at high tide. I have never been to Cairns but I have heard and seen programs on radio and tv saying some built up areas are very vulnerable to storm surge and I am sure I heard once someone who warned of the danger was actually told to keep his mouth shut.Anyway ,just my thoughts.

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#1253428 - 06/04/2014 09:52 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
WeatherWhisperer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2010
Posts: 71
Loc: Qld Australia, Cairns
Hi Hopefull, yes we are vulnerable in Cairns being 600mm above sea level, and if this system crosses just north of us it could be very interseting.

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#1253430 - 06/04/2014 10:00 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
scales Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 40
Hey Trav dawwggg.I dont understand any of the tech stuff,but enjoy reading all the posts.What are your latest thoughts on Ita??

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#1253432 - 06/04/2014 10:04 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 12697
Loc: Cairns
For the archives.

_________________________
IF IT'S FLOODED FORGET IT.


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#1253435 - 06/04/2014 10:45 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
leaparsons Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/03/2007
Posts: 80
Loc: Kewarra Beach, Qld
Let's see the panic buying begin.......

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#1253437 - 06/04/2014 10:52 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Hopefull]
Catalpa Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/11/2013
Posts: 34
Loc: Magnetic Island, Queensland
Originally Posted By: Hopefull
I am reminded of the saying "be careful what you wish for because you might get what you want". What if we end up with slow to medium moving, Cat 3 cyclone, heading for say just north of Cairns crossing the coast at high tide. I have never been to Cairns but I have heard and seen programs on radio and tv saying some built up areas are very vulnerable to storm surge and I am sure I heard once someone who warned of the danger was actually told to keep his mouth shut.Anyway ,just my thoughts.


Exactly what I said during the last couple of cyclones off the coast. I find it hard to believe that anyone would want 200kmh winds ripping the roof off their houses. Especially the way the new houses are built in NQ.

Only thing I wish for is that the people that are wishing for it get the full brunt of the devestation directly and everyone else comes out ok.

I'm still of the opinion that most of the people that wish for it have never been through a REAL severe system, not just been on the edge of one. After having been through a couple I'm hoping it stays well north on the cape and crosses in a very unpopulated area, if at all.

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#1253438 - 06/04/2014 10:55 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 1641
Originally Posted By: marakai
You've had your fair share of a dismal Aus TC season this year Pop's, all we've had over here so far is a couple of glorified tropical storms designated just to keep the numbers up for the sake of the global warming mantra.

Not sure how global warming fits into this event? Most recent research has been suggesting that the overall frequency of TC's is likely to decrease (but out of the proportion of intense ones that do occur, they're likely to be more intense).

Back to the subject of Ita, yesterday's 00z and 12z runs of FIM look interesting... they're divided between a crossing on the far north tropical coast... and Ita slowing down as it gets close to the coast before curving SE.

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#1253439 - 06/04/2014 10:56 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: marakai]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 5784
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: marakai
This one looks like becoming a nice CS monster, but it's ours until we're finished with it, if your lucky you might get sloppy third's after the NT has had it's fun with her but for now Ita is all ours. smile


haha. Seeing as though you describe it like that I think we might not want TC Ita.

My Western Wanderer dream may be fading I think. Still good to see an April Severe system. Just as long as the CAT 3 status that BOM give her don't just fizzle down to nothing as usual for QLD.

Interesting that the EC ensembles have a huge spread beyond 5 days. If it does head a little more South in the next few days Watch out Cooktown to Cairns. Like RWM said though conditions may not be as favourable the further south it gets. Time will tell.
_________________________
Cable Beach 2013/14 Wet Season Total - 867mm

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#1253442 - 06/04/2014 11:00 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1708
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.


TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 10:42 am EST on Sunday 6 April 2014
At 10 am EST Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Ita (Category 1) with central pressure
998 hPa was located over the northern Coral Sea near latitude 12.1 south
longitude 154.4 east, which is about 1210 km east of Lockhart River and 1070 km
east northeast of Cairns.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY 1, is expected to continue moving in a general
westwards direction over the next few days, while intensifying. Tropical
Cyclone Ita is expected to remain well offshore for the next few days and poses
no immediate threat to the Queensland coast.
_________________________
Parramatta Park Rainfall Totals 2014
2014 rainfall chart


MTD: 7.0mm
YTD: 2190.5mm

Jan 2014- 467.5mm Feb 2014- 496.0mm March 2014- 544.5mm April 2014- 433.5mm
May 2014- 141.5mm Jun 2014- 102.5mm

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#1253443 - 06/04/2014 11:02 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
explorer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 497
Loc: Coolum Beach, Qld
Is this for real?

http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/stormcast.html?ops=gfs:2014040518:2014041318:aus:mslp:null:0#sc

April 14th, latest GFS

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#1253444 - 06/04/2014 11:03 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1261
Loc: Kewarra beach
.


Edited by marakai (06/04/2014 11:04)

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#1253445 - 06/04/2014 11:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Catalpa]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 2349
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Catalpa
Originally Posted By: Hopefull
I am reminded of the saying "be careful what you wish for because you might get what you want". What if we end up with slow to medium moving, Cat 3 cyclone, heading for say just north of Cairns crossing the coast at high tide. I have never been to Cairns but I have heard and seen programs on radio and tv saying some built up areas are very vulnerable to storm surge and I am sure I heard once someone who warned of the danger was actually told to keep his mouth shut.Anyway ,just my thoughts.
.

Exactly what I said during the last couple of cyclones off the coast. I find it hard to believe that anyone would want 200kmh winds ripping the roof off their houses. Especially the way the new houses are built in NQ.

Only thing I wish for is that the people that are wishing for it get the full brunt of the devestation directly and everyone else comes out ok.

I'm still of the opinion that most of the people that wish for it have never been through a REAL severe system, not just been on the edge of one. After having been through a couple I'm hoping it stays well north on the cape and crosses in a very unpopulated area, if at all.


Lived in Innisfail for Larry and Yasi and still love em. Yes they are dangerous but still want too see them as much as possible. I'll happily take a nice cat 3 anyday. The saying 'be careful what you wish for' though is ridiculous because nature won't alter according to our wishes.

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#1253446 - 06/04/2014 11:08 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: explorer]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1708
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Originally Posted By: explorer
Is this for real?

http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/stormcast.html?ops=gfs:2014040518:2014041318:aus:mslp:null:0#sc

April 14th, latest GFS


If the GFS is right it will be sheared to bits by the time it gets that far south as the conditions are unfavorable. Surf should be good tho.
_________________________
Parramatta Park Rainfall Totals 2014
2014 rainfall chart


MTD: 7.0mm
YTD: 2190.5mm

Jan 2014- 467.5mm Feb 2014- 496.0mm March 2014- 544.5mm April 2014- 433.5mm
May 2014- 141.5mm Jun 2014- 102.5mm

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#1253449 - 06/04/2014 11:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Hopefull Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 423
Loc: Burpengary QLD
This point was well explained by one of the moderators after Yasi.Both Yasi and Larry were very fast moving cyclones (unusually so for their size) and did not cross at high tide and missed the major cities which greatly reduced their destructive potential. A slow moving Cat 3 crossing at high tide just north of a major populated area could cause far more damage and loss of life than yasi or larry.


Edited by Hopefull (06/04/2014 11:26)

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#1253451 - 06/04/2014 11:31 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Trav dawwggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 21084
Loc: Parramatta
System is developing some very nice infeed banding to its north. Hopefully shear can relax a little bit and we can see this get to its full potential.

if this goes any further south than cairns though, one would think its going SE.

I expect the EC determanistic to show a cooktown crossing or cape melville crossing. Lets see what happens!!

Damn coral sea.
_________________________
<<<<<<SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA CHASE VIDEO >>>>>>>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCpJ-985lZM

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#1253461 - 06/04/2014 12:33 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
PVW Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 1986
Loc: Douglas, Townsville QLD
Latest 5-day BOM Track Map on the BOM CWS Page I have access to shows Ita approaching Cooktown on Friday morning as a Category 4.
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Davis Vantage Vue in Eton, QLD (30km SW of Mackay):
- MY WEATHER WEBSITE!
- MY 12-HR MACKAY RADAR LOOP
- MY 9-DAY MACKAY AREA FORECAST

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#1253469 - 06/04/2014 13:01 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
psychlonique Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/02/2011
Posts: 155
Loc: Annandale Qld
If Bom is predicting Cooktown I'm gonna go with a more southern swing and say it will go for the cyclone magnet Innisfail haha P.S that's a ridiculous guess from a lay person so don't take me seriously.

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