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#1252824 - 02/04/2014 14:38 Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4304
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
I reckon we are far enough into this one for it to have a dedicated tread. At the moment I would say it is looking better than any other CS low(this year) this early in it's life. Models as usual are all over the shop so once again will be interesting to watch.
Visible Loop
It is tightening up nicely and losing it's elongation.


Edited by Mick10 (09/04/2014 08:46)
Edit Reason: title change

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#1252839 - 02/04/2014 16:11 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 1899
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Ah hah, I just noticed this thing on the wind map and was wondering if any action on the forum
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#1252845 - 02/04/2014 17:14 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
explorer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 508
Loc: Coolum Beach, Qld
The MTSAT loops are not loading for me at the moment, is there any issues with their site? Neither the infrared or vapour one ...

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#1252851 - 02/04/2014 17:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: explorer]
Rhubarb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2011
Posts: 636
Loc: West End, Townsville, QLD
The connection is timing out at the moment for me too frown
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#1252852 - 02/04/2014 17:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4304
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
It was working this morning but I am unable to load it now as well. Pity it was really looking good on the vis loop.

Edit..Scratch that it just came good


Edited by Brett Guy (02/04/2014 17:28)

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#1252853 - 02/04/2014 17:29 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
explorer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 508
Loc: Coolum Beach, Qld
Is loading now again ... nice to know it was not just me .. smile

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#1252857 - 02/04/2014 17:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2515
Loc: Edens Landing, QLD
I checked fim9 last night had an interesting scenario heading SW...but not making landfall. Though I have not looked at the latest model guidance. Probably should before posting but generally I was thinking SE with an upper trough but an upper ridge over Qld with more Nw'ly steering influences, not sure what will win over. on a guess I think it will eventually go Se.

though GFS was showing abit of something near the GoC, maybe that's this lows destination? No idea..


Edited by Steve O (02/04/2014 18:01)

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#1252865 - 02/04/2014 18:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2515
Loc: Edens Landing, QLD
WATL/Pme output showing the northern parts of the Coral Sea with descent rainfall areas from this system by the end of the 4 day outlook.


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#1252871 - 02/04/2014 20:08 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 1899
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Anyone got some funky model outputs on this invest. Might as well get one last dose of dodgy modelling again for the season lol
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#1252874 - 02/04/2014 20:45 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7319
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
At a guess I think this one will make its way across Cape York and give the Top End a touch up in 10-12 days time. Like anything that originates out there though it could fluff around for days and end up screaming off to Fiji and then NZ instead.
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#1252875 - 02/04/2014 20:49 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2515
Loc: Edens Landing, QLD
Here's some dodgy modelling for you.
Where as yesterday this system was getting caught up in an upper trough and turning Se. GFS was suggesting that too, as the two use similar variables I guess.



Edited by Steve O (02/04/2014 20:53)

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#1252877 - 02/04/2014 20:53 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 1899
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Its gaining size nicely
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#1252908 - 03/04/2014 08:08 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Dodger Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/03/2010
Posts: 175
Loc: Kuranda
Long range GFS has it taking a drive down the Eastern Seaboard stopping of in Hobart for tea and scones. I blame its reluctance to cross the coast on the excessive use of WD40. Just a theory.
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#1252925 - 03/04/2014 10:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 1899
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Lovely form this morning on the wind map

The MTSAT looks quite amazing too ........ well done so far 97P!
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#1252927 - 03/04/2014 10:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8343
Loc: Freshwater, Cairns
Looks amazing this morning, better than any system so far this season in the CS lol grin

Come SW please!
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#1252929 - 03/04/2014 11:00 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 592
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Even if it amounts to nothing, its certainly worth watching at the moment. Seems to be growing rather quickly this morning.

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#1252937 - 03/04/2014 12:06 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
SBT Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 13939
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
School holidays start next week so of course it is going to belt down.
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#1252938 - 03/04/2014 12:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4304
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Such a massive divergence in model guidance. I wouldn't put money on what this thing will do that is for sure but I might just stop eating my way through my cyclone kit for a week or so.

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#1252939 - 03/04/2014 12:11 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Donweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/01/2009
Posts: 150
Loc: Brisvegas
Haven't JTWC got a little typo error for this system? Shouldn't its location be NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 159.4E

http://jtwccdn.appspot.com/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt

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#1252945 - 03/04/2014 13:03 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 1899
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Hmm, BOM current wind charts show it dissipating into nothing after late Tuesday ......
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