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#1253551 - 06/04/2014 17:57 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Trav dawwggg]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 5875
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Trav dawwggg
The ensemble was split sorry


Be interesting to see what they update with the ensemble in a short time. I did see the Ensemble spilt this morning and gave up on anything West. A bit of invigorated belief though this arvo. Might be short lived but that's OK.
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Cable Beach 2014/15 Predicted Wet Season Total - 2867mm lol

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#1253552 - 06/04/2014 18:00 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Weary Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/03/2014
Posts: 155
Loc: Edge Hill, Cairns
Sorry if this is a bit off topic but is it unusual to have Peipah north of the equator and Ita south of the equator at the same time???
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Love the sound of rain on a tin roof

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#1253553 - 06/04/2014 18:06 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
TESHUB Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 1338
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld Aus
The core has come apart somewhat in the last hrs, maybe in the morning it will be raging again

Should be some effect on the weather in Mackay too by the morning, extra cloud maybe
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TESHUB was the Hurrian god of sky and storm (the Anatolian area of central Turkey)

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#1253556 - 06/04/2014 18:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2014
Loc: 中国上૲...
Weary: The synoptic situation with Peipah and Ita is not uncommon.
Usually in this type of situation both systems will not be intense at the same time, at least based on recent history (last 10 years).

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#1253569 - 06/04/2014 19:24 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 2002
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Off to the SE??

_________________________
Parramatta Park Rainfall Totals 2014
2014 rainfall chart


MTD: 14.0mm
YTD: 2267.5mm

September- 3.0mm

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#1253571 - 06/04/2014 19:33 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 5875
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
JTWC don't seem overly confident in their track map so I guess we will have to wait and see. With some heading west and some heading SE it must throw a spanner into their track map output hence the low level of confidence in it.

Blurb from them. (cut down version)

DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM,
FOLLOWED BY THE RESUMPTION OF A WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
BASED ON DIVERGING NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF
MOVEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS
_________________________
Cable Beach 2014/15 Predicted Wet Season Total - 2867mm lol

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#1253572 - 06/04/2014 19:36 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 1877
I think someone was asking earlier if it'll take a SE'ly path... if so, here's what the NCEP ensemble thinks might happen to Ita for Days 7 to 14 from yesterday (I haven't run my script using the newest runs yet so I don't know if it's changed since then though):

https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7019/13658130924_941a6805b6_o.png


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#1253574 - 06/04/2014 19:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
TESHUB Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 1338
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld Aus
I will be eating hats for a week if this thing crosses the Cape, totally doubt it will
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TESHUB was the Hurrian god of sky and storm (the Anatolian area of central Turkey)

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#1253575 - 06/04/2014 19:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 5129
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC ensembles are still split as well.

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#1253576 - 06/04/2014 19:43 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 22537
Loc: Vincent, Townsville - NQld.
interesting that gfs and access both are in agreement with model consensus now. both have it very close to cairns then south off Townsville, though access weakens the system while gfs keeps it at a moderate strength striking the whitsundays while moving SE. access has it dying off.
_________________________
Vincent, Townsville Nth Qld -
May Total - 13.8mm (17mm)
June Total - 61.2mm (21mm)
2014 Total to Date - 1000.2mm (1107mm)

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#1253577 - 06/04/2014 19:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 5875
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Ken what does NCEP stand for (or anyone that knows). Which group of models is that? cheers.
_________________________
Cable Beach 2014/15 Predicted Wet Season Total - 2867mm lol

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#1253578 - 06/04/2014 19:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 2002
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
_________________________
Parramatta Park Rainfall Totals 2014
2014 rainfall chart


MTD: 14.0mm
YTD: 2267.5mm

September- 3.0mm

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#1253579 - 06/04/2014 19:58 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 5875
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Another Coral Sea "does your head in" TC. 3rd for the year. haha

This thing could go anywhere. Cool to watch. Good to learn. If it approaches the NTH QLD coast and fizzles into a 30knt CAT 2 you will never hear the end of it. lol. I will stick to my guns and say the less likely Western Wanderer. Things are definitely not stacking in my favour but got to have someone batting for the team.
_________________________
Cable Beach 2014/15 Predicted Wet Season Total - 2867mm lol

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#1253580 - 06/04/2014 20:06 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Hurricane force]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 3527
Loc: El Arish
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We are now firmly entrenched in the notion that spraying poison on our food is somehow safe and beneficial.

We are brainwashed into believing that small amounts of poisons are perfectly permissible.

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#1253589 - 06/04/2014 20:52 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
weathermegs Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2010
Posts: 347
Loc: Edmonton QLD
The meaning of the name Ita is "thirst or thirsty" my bet is she stays over water and has a huge drink in the coral sea never making landfall

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#1253591 - 06/04/2014 20:57 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 5875
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Or Flood the Solomons, Flood Cape York, Flood the Top End and then Flood the Kimberley.
_________________________
Cable Beach 2014/15 Predicted Wet Season Total - 2867mm lol

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#1253597 - 06/04/2014 21:39 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
synopig Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 603
Loc: Kewarra Beach
Love your enthusiasm pops,Ive been away for a month. Looks like Ive arrived home at a good time.

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#1253602 - 06/04/2014 21:59 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 22537
Loc: Vincent, Townsville - NQld.
or could sweep down the central parts of Qld and give them all a nice drink before the wet season ends. the perfect top up they need after the rain in early march.
_________________________
Vincent, Townsville Nth Qld -
May Total - 13.8mm (17mm)
June Total - 61.2mm (21mm)
2014 Total to Date - 1000.2mm (1107mm)

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#1253606 - 06/04/2014 22:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Mick10]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1261
Loc: Kewarra beach
Originally Posted By: Mick10
or could sweep down the central parts of Qld and give them all a nice drink before the wet season ends. the perfect top up they need after the rain in early march.


Fingers crossed for that result Mick 10.

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#1253607 - 06/04/2014 22:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Rhubarb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2011
Posts: 276
Loc: Townsville, QLD
OK this is latest FIM for Friday 11/04 ... still looking to cross about Cooktown or to the south on Friday ....hopefully rain for the coast south of the system smile


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