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#1253551 - 06/04/2014 17:57 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Trav dawwggg]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 6974
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Trav dawwggg
The ensemble was split sorry


Be interesting to see what they update with the ensemble in a short time. I did see the Ensemble spilt this morning and gave up on anything West. A bit of invigorated belief though this arvo. Might be short lived but that's OK.
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Cable Beach 2014/15 Wet Season Total - 462.6mm

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#1253552 - 06/04/2014 18:00 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Weary Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/03/2014
Posts: 440
Loc: Edge Hill, Cairns
Sorry if this is a bit off topic but is it unusual to have Peipah north of the equator and Ita south of the equator at the same time???
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#1253553 - 06/04/2014 18:06 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
TESHUB Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 1700
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
The core has come apart somewhat in the last hrs, maybe in the morning it will be raging again

Should be some effect on the weather in Mackay too by the morning, extra cloud maybe
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TESHUB was the Hurrian god of sky and storm (the Anatolian area of central Turkey)

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#1253556 - 06/04/2014 18:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2074
Loc: 中国上૲...
Weary: The synoptic situation with Peipah and Ita is not uncommon.
Usually in this type of situation both systems will not be intense at the same time, at least based on recent history (last 10 years).

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#1253569 - 06/04/2014 19:24 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 2998
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Off to the SE??

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MTD: 16.5mm
YTD: 1921.4mm

July- 31.5mm

2014 Totals- 2352.6mm

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#1253571 - 06/04/2014 19:33 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 6974
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
JTWC don't seem overly confident in their track map so I guess we will have to wait and see. With some heading west and some heading SE it must throw a spanner into their track map output hence the low level of confidence in it.

Blurb from them. (cut down version)

DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM,
FOLLOWED BY THE RESUMPTION OF A WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
BASED ON DIVERGING NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF
MOVEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS
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Cable Beach 2014/15 Wet Season Total - 462.6mm

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#1253572 - 06/04/2014 19:36 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2780
I think someone was asking earlier if it'll take a SE'ly path... if so, here's what the NCEP ensemble thinks might happen to Ita for Days 7 to 14 from yesterday (I haven't run my script using the newest runs yet so I don't know if it's changed since then though):

https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7019/13658130924_941a6805b6_o.png


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#1253574 - 06/04/2014 19:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
TESHUB Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 1700
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
I will be eating hats for a week if this thing crosses the Cape, totally doubt it will
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TESHUB was the Hurrian god of sky and storm (the Anatolian area of central Turkey)

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#1253575 - 06/04/2014 19:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 5346
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC ensembles are still split as well.

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#1253576 - 06/04/2014 19:43 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 23635
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
interesting that gfs and access both are in agreement with model consensus now. both have it very close to cairns then south off Townsville, though access weakens the system while gfs keeps it at a moderate strength striking the whitsundays while moving SE. access has it dying off.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2015 Total - 16.6mm (21mm)
July 2015 Total - 0.2mm (14mm)
Year to date total - 368.2mm (1135mm)

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#1253577 - 06/04/2014 19:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 6974
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Ken what does NCEP stand for (or anyone that knows). Which group of models is that? cheers.
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Cable Beach 2014/15 Wet Season Total - 462.6mm

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#1253578 - 06/04/2014 19:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 2998
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
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MTD: 16.5mm
YTD: 1921.4mm

July- 31.5mm

2014 Totals- 2352.6mm

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#1253579 - 06/04/2014 19:58 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 6974
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Another Coral Sea "does your head in" TC. 3rd for the year. haha

This thing could go anywhere. Cool to watch. Good to learn. If it approaches the NTH QLD coast and fizzles into a 30knt CAT 2 you will never hear the end of it. lol. I will stick to my guns and say the less likely Western Wanderer. Things are definitely not stacking in my favour but got to have someone batting for the team.
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Cable Beach 2014/15 Wet Season Total - 462.6mm

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#1253580 - 06/04/2014 20:06 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Hurricane force]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 3704
Loc: El Arish
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We poison the soil, we poison the water, we poison the air, we poison the mind

Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

The longer the shelf life, the shorter your life....

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#1253589 - 06/04/2014 20:52 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
weathermegs Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2010
Posts: 420
Loc: Edmonton QLD
The meaning of the name Ita is "thirst or thirsty" my bet is she stays over water and has a huge drink in the coral sea never making landfall

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#1253591 - 06/04/2014 20:57 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 6974
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Or Flood the Solomons, Flood Cape York, Flood the Top End and then Flood the Kimberley.
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Cable Beach 2014/15 Wet Season Total - 462.6mm

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#1253597 - 06/04/2014 21:39 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
synopig Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 696
Loc: Kewarra Beach, Tropical FNQ
Love your enthusiasm pops,Ive been away for a month. Looks like Ive arrived home at a good time.
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#1253602 - 06/04/2014 21:59 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 23635
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
or could sweep down the central parts of Qld and give them all a nice drink before the wet season ends. the perfect top up they need after the rain in early march.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2015 Total - 16.6mm (21mm)
July 2015 Total - 0.2mm (14mm)
Year to date total - 368.2mm (1135mm)

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#1253606 - 06/04/2014 22:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Mick10]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1522
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Mick10
or could sweep down the central parts of Qld and give them all a nice drink before the wet season ends. the perfect top up they need after the rain in early march.


Fingers crossed for that result Mick 10.

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#1253607 - 06/04/2014 22:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (97P - Coral Sea) - April 2014 - General Discussion [Re: Brett Guy]
Rhubarb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2011
Posts: 467
Loc: West End, Townsville, QLD
OK this is latest FIM for Friday 11/04 ... still looking to cross about Cooktown or to the south on Friday ....hopefully rain for the coast south of the system smile

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Rhubarb
Be as free as a butterfly, say yes instead of no, and go with the ripples ......

Rainfall 2015
YTD: 374.5mm
MTD: 0mm

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