The Dvorak analysis of Tropical Cyclone Ita was based on a curved band pattern
with a 0.6 degree wrap, giving a DT of 3.0. MET and PAT both give 3.0. FT was
based on MET.
Convection appears to be rejuvenating around Tropical Cyclone Ita in the last
few hours, although the cloud top temperatures are not quite as cold as they
have been over the last couple of days. The 89GHz AMSUB microwave image at
1525UTC appears to show a more well defined mid-level circulation compared to
this time yesterday and it is on the western flank of this circulation that
fresh convection has started to fire over the last few hours.
Tropical Cyclone Ita is currently moving in a general westwards direction and
should continue moving in this direction under the influence of a mid-level
ridge that develop across the central Coral Sea this week.
Tropical Cyclone Ita is beginning to move into a more favourable environment for
further development with lowering vertical wind shear and sea surface
temperatures greater than 27 degrees along most of its forecast track. At the
moment, the system appears to still be feeling the affects of some vertical wind
shear associated with a mid-level trough moving between Vanuatu and the Solomon
Islands. As Ita continues to move in a westwards direction today, the vertical
wind shear should reduce during the course of the day allowing further
intensification to take place into Tuesday.
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