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#1260730 - 23/04/2014 08:54 USA Virtual Chase Target Game
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3040
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Anybody interested in playing this game. It is a great way to tune up your USA forecasting skills. To participate simply nominate a target and date. For example Wednesday 23rd (USA Time). Target - Bison Butt, Nebraska., and why this is your target. You can be as brief or complex as you want.

At this stage we will not have a score unless people want one. Let me ASAP via this thread if you want some sort of scoring.

Entries will close at midnight, for targets in the USA in the following morning (OUR TIME). The cut off is to simulate the driving experience.

Tonight and later this weekend should give the first opportunity to hone your skills.

Some links that may help ( Generally 18 to 21Z is the evening hours in mid west US when severe storms are most likely.
_
GFS via BSCH - http://usa.bsch.com.au/stormcast.html

College of Du Page – read and weep compared to what we have here. http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Storm Prediction Centre: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1260737 - 23/04/2014 10:47 Re: USA Virtual Chase Target Game [Re: ozthunder]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 5913
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Hello Ozthunder:

What a great idea you have here--will be very interested in keeping up with this thread.

Here are a couple of my fave weather links, which may be of help:

US Weather Feature Map (updated twice daily; map also shows where areas of Severe Thunderstorms are possible, etc.):
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.gif
BTW, currently, 0Z is 7PM US Central Time.

Satellite Images (Infrared, Visible Light & Water Vapor Loops. Loop View time options [24 Hours, 12 Hours, 6 Hours] below each map):
http://www.weather.gov/satellite

Happy Chasing~~~Wet Snow

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#1260775 - 23/04/2014 18:25 Re: USA Virtual Chase Target Game [Re: ozthunder]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3040
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Wednesday 23 April, Target – Laverne, Oklahoma.

With the latest model runs I have pushed my target about 50-100 miles further north. This is because surface winds appear to maintaining S/SE direction much further north, with the better directional shear stretching northwards too. Earlier fears of a too linear setup northwards from central Kansas appear to be weakening, so that may be a last minute game changer. In the Oklahoma panhandle directional shear will be adequate to keep initial storms discreet. Dewpoints will be the limiting factor and I expect initial storms on the dryline to be rather elevated. Is suspect Gorilla hail is possible with one or two of the stronger supercells. Towards evening DP’s may close the gap on surface temperatures enough to lower the LCL to a possible very isolated tornado level.

Storms will be very photogenic. In my opinion a much better chase prospect than a high risk day with the LCL dragging the ground, and full on gloom fest with 50mph moving storms, even if there is EF4-5.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1260777 - 23/04/2014 18:57 Re: USA Virtual Chase Target Game [Re: ozthunder]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10218
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
My 'virtual' chasing target will be: Arnett (Ellis County), Oklahoma
DPs more firmly into the 50s, with decent road options available to make adjustments if need be.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2017 Rainfall: 25.2mm (Dec Avg. 117.7mm) // December 2017 Raindays: 5 (Dec Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1493.4mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 155 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

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#1260801 - 23/04/2014 22:25 Re: USA Virtual Chase Target Game [Re: ozthunder]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
Love the idea of this thread.

Ill give a go this weekend for sure.
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1260830 - 24/04/2014 09:48 Re: USA Virtual Chase Target Game [Re: ozthunder]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 533
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Yeah cant count me now but said Hobart yesterday and not to bad getting weak squall now.
Would be 100 miles south now on the cells near Seymour hopefully wouldn't have got sucked into the TX PH junk vection. but hard to say.

Seymour cell looking good hook trying to develop its tail end 3.5 inch hail she looking good.

New scan up to 4 BEAST of a cell

3 weeks till i am there cant wait


Edited by Twister1 (24/04/2014 09:49)
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1260872 - 24/04/2014 14:01 Re: USA Virtual Chase Target Game [Re: ozthunder]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10218
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Not completely sure how I went, but judging by the "Storm total" precip. I would've had to travel 100kms further south (via Highway 283) to the I-40 to get a decent storm.
Is there a US radar archive?
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2017 Rainfall: 25.2mm (Dec Avg. 117.7mm) // December 2017 Raindays: 5 (Dec Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1493.4mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 155 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

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#1260877 - 24/04/2014 14:08 Re: USA Virtual Chase Target Game [Re: ozthunder]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3040
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
A lone LP formed about 40 miles west of my target, so I probably would have gone with that. Clyve and jane have posted a few pics on Farcebook, quite nice looking. Hail to about golf ball judging by GRLVL3.

Overall however moisture really was thin and limited potential. The Texas storms were is slightly better DP's.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1260921 - 24/04/2014 21:03 Re: USA Virtual Chase Target Game [Re: ozthunder]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3040
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
I think it is safe to say that Wednesday was not as good as I expected. Both targets nominated would have been positions that would have allowed adjustments to real time happenings. Mine to had 30 miles west for the LP. The Arnett target close to some cells in TX panhandle.

The next day worth chasing is Saturday (Sunday our time).

This appears to be a near classic setup. Beautiful if it comes off, however at this stage hinting at two targets well apsrt - Nebraska or Texas. the Texas option looks as though it may be centred on the "hill country", not exactly ideal chase country, unless you want to reminded of Australian mallee scrub.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1261089 - 26/04/2014 00:38 Re: USA Virtual Chase Target Game [Re: ozthunder]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 533
Loc: Chadstone Vic
If only forcing sped up 6 hours then Saturday would be huge.

Sun Mon and Tues in Dixie ally looking massive. epic strong upper bombing the stalling low over Central high plains.
Its a 3 day tornado outbreak in the jungles with strong short waves riding the base.
Watch for 70kt 500 Mon and possible near 90kt 500 Tue with Dps near 70F huge 3 days.

Flooding also a massive risk with training and clusters of sups in the overnight hours.

Hobart got some weak storm action but would have had to off driver to near Seymour.
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1261140 - 26/04/2014 19:06 Re: USA Virtual Chase Target Game [Re: ozthunder]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3040
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Saturday 26th April (USA Time) – Target, Clinton, Oklahoma

The two big concerns are dewpoints and CAP strength. GFS appears to be overcooking dewpoints a little, 2-3C compared to other models. The surface low (lee cyclone) has not had enough time to advect the richer moisture too far north into the better shear. I think you will need position as far south along the dry line as possible without losing the shear. The thermal trough is hanging way back on the Rockies still near sunset, so it may be too capped until after dark as that trough noses forwards. However I still think some isolated supercells should form along the dryline in Oklahoma and far northern Texas.

After dark things get interesting as dewpoints increase and surface temperatures cool, plus the upper level support strengthens, this could be interesting at 1-2am for certain Aussies at their chase base in Kansas, a nocturnal tornado is not out of reason. My target is Clinton, OK, it is as far south as I dare to go. I expect large hail, lovely high based supercell structure and lightning. There may be a surprise tornado near sunset if GFS optimism about dewpoints holds.

Clnton also set ups good for the moderate risk day in Arkansas on Sunday. Ironically after reading many USA chasers thoughts, many will stand out for Saturdays storms in reasonable chase topography, and chase a higher tornado risk on Sunday, but in thick forest and hills, I cannot understand that.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1261156 - 27/04/2014 02:08 Re: USA Virtual Chase Target Game [Re: ozthunder]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10218
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
I had fictionally imagined being in Lawton, Oklahoma today but I think I will pass on today, and head eastwards (largely via Highway 70) for DeQueen, Arkansas.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2017 Rainfall: 25.2mm (Dec Avg. 117.7mm) // December 2017 Raindays: 5 (Dec Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1493.4mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 155 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

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#1261175 - 27/04/2014 11:32 Re: USA Virtual Chase Target Game [Re: ozthunder]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3040
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
A couple of cells just on the verge of moving from Texas into SW Oklahoma. They should encounter better shear and dewpoints should hold of maybe improve a little. About 15 mins to sunset. I think daylight will be gone before anything turns supercell and there is tomorrows target of western Arkansas to think about, about 5-7 hour drive, quite makable even if mucking around in west Oklahoma until mid evening today.


Edited by ozthunder (27/04/2014 11:34)
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1261207 - 27/04/2014 18:19 Re: USA Virtual Chase Target Game [Re: ozthunder]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3040
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
If I was being true to a virtual chase I would be targeting a similar area to Seabreeze, an easy 5-6 hour drive from today's target. Missouri is probably out of the question. So it is De Queen for me too - sorry Seabeeze not a lot of options in Arkansas.

Looks like chasers with no home base option will follow this system almost to the Atlantic seaboard as the plains have a 5-6 rest.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1261228 - 27/04/2014 19:48 Re: USA Virtual Chase Target Game [Re: ozthunder]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10218
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
I have been considering heading a bit further east than I planned yesterday, somewhere around Texarkana and Hope instead of DeQueen. smile
For my fictional chase today, I will settle on: Garland, Arkansas
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2017 Rainfall: 25.2mm (Dec Avg. 117.7mm) // December 2017 Raindays: 5 (Dec Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1493.4mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 155 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

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#1261246 - 27/04/2014 22:40 Re: USA Virtual Chase Target Game [Re: Seabreeze]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 5913
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Hello ALL:

You've picked very good "virtual chase" targets, Seabreeze & Ozthunder, as the areas around DeQueen, Hope, Texarkana and Garland are much flatter than they are through here.

On an Arkansas map, if you drew a line from the towns of DeQueen (Sevier Co.) and NE'ward through Arkadelphia (Clark Co.), Malvern (Hot Spring Co.), Little Rock (Pulaski Co.), Searcy (White Co.), Newport (Jackson Co.) and then straight northwards to the Missouri border--all the areas to the E & SE of this line would be in the flatter parts of Arkansas.

After you "virtual" chasers get finished chasing, you might want to take in the very nice town of Hot Springs, AR (Garland County); now would be a good time to go there as it's not that crowded as "tourist season" hasn't really arrived yet. Garvan Woodland Gardens looks spectacular.

Keeping an eye to the sky here as things could get very interesting a little later (not often is the "Tornado" word used in our area forecast).

Happy "Virtual" Chasing~~~Wet Snow


Edited by Wet Snow (27/04/2014 22:42)

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#1261272 - 28/04/2014 08:56 Re: USA Virtual Chase Target Game [Re: ozthunder]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3040
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Hope all is safe Wet Snow, as I see a few tornado warnings in Arkansas.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1261283 - 28/04/2014 10:08 Re: USA Virtual Chase Target Game [Re: ozthunder]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 5913
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Hello Ozthunder & All:

My area/town has been Blessed by having no Severe Weather hit us thus far on Sunday (currently 7PM Sunday), my area & much of Arkansas remains under a Tornado Watch until 11PM (a short while ago, a Severe Warned cell just missed my area to the NW [cell moving from SW to NE]).
IMO, the better environment for Severe/Tornadic Thunderstorms appears to be East of my area, in those portions of Arkansas.

Just listening to storm coverage on KKOW 860AM radio (Pittsburg, KS) and they mentioned that part of a train was lifted off the rails at a grain elevator near Fort Scott, KS., likely due to severe thunderstorm winds.

Kind Wishes & Take Care~~~Wet Snow

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#1261299 - 28/04/2014 11:24 Re: USA Virtual Chase Target Game [Re: ozthunder]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3040
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Almost impossible to say what today's chase target would have been like. Whether one would have jumped early for Missouri or stuck to Arkansas.

The target nominated would have been a great position to latch onto the start of the tail end charlie which is now a nasty tornado on the ground now about 2 hours NE of the target.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1261303 - 28/04/2014 11:39 Re: USA Virtual Chase Target Game [Re: ozthunder]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 5913
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Folks:

The long-lived and destructive twister remains on the ground (has been on ground for around 60 minutes now)...significant damage near Mayflower, AR area (NW of Little Rock)...around 1-mile wide "debris ball" earlier from this twister on Doppler Radar...Twister continues--no sign of abating--NE track towards towns of Searcy & Bald Knob...also damage in the Vilonia area...terrible damage pictures from the Mayflower area...Top of this thunderstorm cell is near 60,000FT...Reed Timmer has been chasing this twister (and giving reports to the US Weather Channel)...TWC personnel says this twister could be the strongest tornado in the US thus far this year...twister moving NE at 45mph...currently 8:36PM Sunday...Thinking now is twister is likely a high-end EF-3 or maybe even an EF-4...twister could now be rain-wrapped. Hopefully the death toll will be very low.

Terrible, Terrible news~~~Wet Snow

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