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#1267536 - 25/06/2014 19:08 Re: 2014 Guyra and Northern Tablelands Snow Chances [Re: paulcirrus]
IslandSandMan Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 09/07/2013
Posts: 37
Amazing work Ken! Fingers crossed !

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#1267542 - 25/06/2014 19:33 Re: 2014 Guyra and Northern Tablelands Snow Chances [Re: paulcirrus]
IslandSandMan Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 09/07/2013
Posts: 37
BOM's MetEye is now on board for 10am Monday for Guyra then easing back by 1pm. Still many days out so anything can change! Depending on moisture this could be a very short lived event.

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#1267543 - 25/06/2014 19:56 Re: 2014 Guyra and Northern Tablelands Snow Chances [Re: paulcirrus]
alby_14 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2005
Posts: 265
Loc: Bathurst, NSW
Originally Posted By: IslandSandMan
alby_14 it was iceman? as shared on South Brisbane Storms, so if Ken goes by that name? Or if someone else leaked his work? Apologies. I'm a bit of a newbie in this forum when it comes to the real names of pseudonyms? Cheers Tony.


Didn't mean to come across as having a shot, I just like to see people acknowledged for their work. And yeh, too many aliases to keep track off, so confusion (this time on my part), is bound to occur.


Edited by alby_14 (25/06/2014 19:57)

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#1267548 - 25/06/2014 20:32 Re: 2014 Guyra and Northern Tablelands Snow Chances [Re: paulcirrus]
IslandSandMan Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 09/07/2013
Posts: 37
@alby_14 not at all mate, glad to know now who is behind such amazing modelling and possible insight! Will always source so those get credit now :), Ken deserves it bigtime!

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#1267589 - 26/06/2014 12:17 Re: 2014 Guyra and Northern Tablelands Snow Chances [Re: paulcirrus]
Aeros Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/10/2012
Posts: 151
Monday is looking like snow, right? -2c with a maximum of 6, and possible showers?

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#1267592 - 26/06/2014 13:07 Re: 2014 Guyra and Northern Tablelands Snow Chances [Re: paulcirrus]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1415
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
looks less promising now. Don't think i will make a trip for this one.
Reason:
Models show the 540 line north of guyra(good) but with little precip if any(bad)
Mete-eye not on board(bad - though i'm still assessing its accuracey)
Bom forecast not on board.(sometimes bad though it has snowed before with their forecast of just showers - but need to see at least snow showers in the forecast)

So i think when all 3 are nil then i think this is your answer for today anyway. But the models are showing less likely as time goes by.
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#1267613 - 26/06/2014 17:15 Re: 2014 Guyra and Northern Tablelands Snow Chances [Re: paulcirrus]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2209
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Heading down Monday. Ran it through ecmf snow cast so will see what happens. It's the only window I have this year anyway.
BOM district forecast for NT
Monday 30 June
Areas of morning frost. Isolated snow showers in the south above 1000 metres in the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Winds westerly 20 to 30 km/h turning southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between minus 3 and 4 above zero with daytime temperatures reaching between 7 and 16.
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#1267713 - 27/06/2014 16:24 Re: 2014 Guyra and Northern Tablelands Snow Chances [Re: Colin Maitland]
James Chambers Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/07/2001
Posts: 1163
Loc: Springfield, SE Qld
It's looking pretty good for snow the way things look at the moment. GFS has come back on board quite nicely. Really bad timing (for a chase)... if only it could happen a couple of days earlier.

BoM forecast still mentions the S word:
Quote:
Sunday 29 June
Mostly sunny. Patchy morning frost. The chance of showers in the south in the late morning and afternoon, falling as snow above 1100 metres late in the morning.

Monday 30 June
Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the south in the morning, falling as snow above 900 metres


Edited by James Chambers (27/06/2014 16:32)
Edit Reason: BoM forecast update
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#1267771 - 27/06/2014 21:01 Re: 2014 Guyra and Northern Tablelands Snow Chances [Re: paulcirrus]
IslandSandMan Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 09/07/2013
Posts: 37
Look at BOM's METEYE for Monday, 7am. Wow!

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#1267795 - 28/06/2014 00:40 Re: 2014 Guyra and Northern Tablelands Snow Chances [Re: IslandSandMan]
Aeros Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/10/2012
Posts: 151
Whats it saying? Is Guyra going to be the place to be? and how many MM's are you guys predicting?
I am unsure wether to go or not

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#1267819 - 28/06/2014 06:54 Re: 2014 Guyra and Northern Tablelands Snow Chances [Re: paulcirrus]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1415
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
yeah unsure as even meteye has snow falling in a very short period sunday morning and for a short period monday. MMM think i'll can this one
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#1267886 - 28/06/2014 13:57 Re: 2014 Guyra and Northern Tablelands Snow Chances [Re: paulcirrus]
Aeros Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/10/2012
Posts: 151
Just not enough moisture?

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#1267965 - 28/06/2014 19:19 Re: 2014 Guyra and Northern Tablelands Snow Chances [Re: paulcirrus]
Aeros Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/10/2012
Posts: 151
Meteye is saying 7am - 1pm Walcha to Guyra will be snowing, this is better then yesterday's forecast. BOM is now saying minus 5c in parts of NT too

Any thoughts guys?

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#1267981 - 28/06/2014 20:31 Re: 2014 Guyra and Northern Tablelands Snow Chances [Re: paulcirrus]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10101
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
If it was me, I wouldn't go snowchasing to the Northern Tablelands unless you lived fairly close-by. It is looking marginal.
Moisture will likely be a problem, there's a possibility precip may not get as far north as the Guyra Plateau. If precip does occur, it may only be enough for a little dusting or some flurries (Forecast precip totals are below 1mm).
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#1268174 - 29/06/2014 22:29 Re: 2014 Guyra and Northern Tablelands Snow Chances [Re: paulcirrus]
IslandSandMan Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 09/07/2013
Posts: 37
Looks like some very light snow showers have just passed over Mt Kaputar heading for the Guyra plateau by early hrs which lines up with METEYE on BOM. Black Mountain/Guyra/Ben Lomond will probably get a light dusting tonight! Precip is on radar but it's nothing major.

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#1268183 - 30/06/2014 05:47 Re: 2014 Guyra and Northern Tablelands Snow Chances [Re: IslandSandMan]
SnowBM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/07/2010
Posts: 76
Loc: Black Mountain NSW 1340m ASL
Currently snowing at Black Mountain with a light dusting on the ground. Temperature +0.5degC.

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#1268186 - 30/06/2014 06:50 Re: 2014 Guyra and Northern Tablelands Snow Chances [Re: paulcirrus]
SnowBM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/07/2010
Posts: 76
Loc: Black Mountain NSW 1340m ASL
See this page:

http://users.tpg.com.au/limnodyn/

for a picture of this morning's snow at Black Mountain, and some graphs showing trends in the amount of rainfall received on snow days at Guyra.

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#1268198 - 30/06/2014 08:59 Re: 2014 Guyra and Northern Tablelands Snow Chances [Re: paulcirrus]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2209
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Just getting a few snow flakes again at Guyra. Snow settled in a few places especially around Ben Lomond Hill
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#1268213 - 30/06/2014 10:31 Re: 2014 Guyra and Northern Tablelands Snow Chances [Re: paulcirrus]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2209
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Heavy snow from Black Mountain , Toms Hill and now back in Guyra. Having a good snow chase.
we have had about 40 minutes worth of snow and still coming down.
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#1268219 - 30/06/2014 11:06 Re: 2014 Guyra and Northern Tablelands Snow Chances [Re: paulcirrus]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2209
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Still heavy snow drifting horizontally. Back to Black Mountain and see what it looks like .
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