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#1267555 - 25/06/2014 21:19 Re: 2014 Australian Snow Season [Re: dorrigo1]
Cheers Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/05/2007
Posts: 1117
Loc: sevenhills nsw
Originally Posted By: dorrigo1
I wish the experienced people make a thread on this! Its fun anticipating a snow event

Agree but it's probably too far out still.

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#1267559 - 25/06/2014 21:31 Re: 2014 Australian Snow Season [Re: aussiestormfreak]
SSC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2011
Posts: 59
Loc: Casula 70m ASL
So looking forward to Sunday!

Yesterday was great, 1st time I have seen shooters hill covered in so much snow!

Hope Sunday can better it!

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#1267573 - 26/06/2014 08:56 Re: 2014 Australian Snow Season [Re: aussiestormfreak]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
I'm not going to make a thread, lest it kill the system! But I'm not one of those "experienced" folk anyway poke .

At this stage, it should be better than Tuesday on the OP, which was only a dusting anyway by Shooters standards, even in the 21st century.

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#1267575 - 26/06/2014 09:00 Re: 2014 Australian Snow Season [Re: aussiestormfreak]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I keep hoping this will be a really nice change but after so many not so good changes, I'm finding it harder to commit to an outcome myself. I'm slightly concerned for moisture but the usual areas often make it ok anyhow due to orographics etc. Plus you don't need much snow to make it look good.

At least it shouldn't be as windy this time!!

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#1267576 - 26/06/2014 09:09 Re: 2014 Australian Snow Season [Re: aussiestormfreak]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Meteye (BOM) showing snow falling to around 1000 or maybe more like 1100 for an extended period (coming and going in patches) from Sat night through to Monday morning.

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#1267578 - 26/06/2014 09:35 Re: 2014 Australian Snow Season [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Excellent start to the season for our ski resorts, a fraction late but in the end well timed as they got the snow before the school holidays.

Checking my snow depths back to 1950, hitting 100cm by the end of June is only a once in a decade occurrence on average.

If we can get another nice system in the first couple of weeks in July there's a possibility of hitting 2m before the end of July and that's only occurred 3 times going back to 1950.

I hope what were seeing is a season similar to 1981 where the snow started a little late but big falls through late June and early July followed by consistent accumulations after that saw the depth hit 361cm in early September.

Then again there's always the possibility it ends up like 1993 this weekends fall will be the last decent one of the season.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1267598 - 26/06/2014 14:08 Re: 2014 Australian Snow Season [Re: aussiestormfreak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS already showing yet another cold pool low emerging from a similar area as today in south of WA in 6 days time and combining with some moisture from a transitioning sub tropical low off the WA coast
We are currently taking advantage of the favourably positioned westerly belt pulses/bulges emerging at a good place ( BIGHT )to peak near the south east alps.
This current system coming through on the weekend looks to give NZ a good 'touch up' as well

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (26/06/2014 14:09)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1267600 - 26/06/2014 15:11 Re: 2014 Australian Snow Season [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Donza Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/06/2009
Posts: 238
Loc: wollongong
AXS-R is very Bullish for Saturday night for alot of NSW
moist and cold.
Could be widespread.

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#1267627 - 26/06/2014 20:24 Re: 2014 Australian Snow Season [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Cheers Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/05/2007
Posts: 1117
Loc: sevenhills nsw
AXS-R still looking good from Saturday night to Monday morning + MetEye looks better than it did this morning for the OP.

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#1267631 - 26/06/2014 21:19 Re: 2014 Australian Snow Season [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Cheers Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/05/2007
Posts: 1117
Loc: sevenhills nsw
I guess we will have a better idea tomorrow night.

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#1267634 - 26/06/2014 21:34 Re: 2014 Australian Snow Season [Re: aussiestormfreak]
FaulcoChasers Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2008
Posts: 277
Loc: Blue Mountains
Yep hopefully we will be chasing out on the Plateau again ..Tuesday just wet the chasing appetite! Fingers crossed laugh

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#1267666 - 27/06/2014 09:27 Re: 2014 Australian Snow Season [Re: aussiestormfreak]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
The temps look quite hopeful from Saturday arvo through till Monday late. Moisture varies a fair bit but 850 temps and elevations look quite good much of the time. If the moisture can coincide with the coldest temps some half decent snow should fall in the usual haunts.

Monday looks nice n cold but bugger all moisture.

GFS has 850 temps a little less cold at this stage and timing slightly different but overall at various times from Sat Arvo to Monday evening there is moisture and there are cold upper air temps. Snow at times MIGHT get down around 900 but more likely at 1000 and higher.

That's my take on the models, prob wrong left right & centre but if we were in the right place at the right time, could be rather pleasant. smile

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#1267678 - 27/06/2014 10:50 Re: 2014 Australian Snow Season [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Calistob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/11/2006
Posts: 222
Loc: Toongabbie NSW
Looks like I will be definitely out there this time. Staying at Oberon on Saturday night and then heading up to Shooters on Sunday to see what's happening.

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#1267685 - 27/06/2014 11:37 Re: 2014 Australian Snow Season [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Here's the latest output from my snow script. Not a huge amount of change since the last one:

http://i1172.photobucket.com/albums/r566/ahokay1/SnowMap_7days_lagged_zps7f7d876c.png


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#1267741 - 27/06/2014 18:15 Re: 2014 Australian Snow Season [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Ferocious winds in NSW alpine areas right now with Thredbo Top station recently recording a gust of 137kmh. Temp has plummetted too.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1268080 - 29/06/2014 10:49 Re: 2014 Australian Snow Season [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Damn the best June snowfalls in the ski resorts for probably a decade and hardly a peep from anyone in these forums.

Will be interesting to see what the rest of the season brings but there is now a solid base for all resorts down to fairly low levels.

Spencer's Creek reading is 102.1cm and this was taken before the latest system which may well add another meter of snow. This is looking very similar to 1990 and not far away from 1981.


Edited by Locke (29/06/2014 10:56)
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1268081 - 29/06/2014 10:54 Re: 2014 Australian Snow Season [Re: Locke]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2842
Originally Posted By: Locke
Damn the best June snowfalls in the ski resorts for probably a decade and hardly a peep from anyone in these forums.




Zuckerberg cult.
_________________________
Land Ahoy! Ooops!

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#1268202 - 30/06/2014 09:21 Re: 2014 Australian Snow Season [Re: aussiestormfreak]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I guess most Ski/boarding nuts get into Ski.com.au. And we have nobody down there to provide info, whereas in this area there are a number of snow nuts reporting about where they live. smile

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#1268234 - 30/06/2014 13:37 Re: 2014 Australian Snow Season [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Donza Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/06/2009
Posts: 238
Loc: wollongong
Yeah tonnes of snow. Most ive ever seen for 01st of July.
More than any season since 1990 (thats as long as ive been going down).

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#1268270 - 30/06/2014 20:24 Re: 2014 Australian Snow Season [Re: aussiestormfreak]
1st King of QBN Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/07/2013
Posts: 33
Im going up in 26 days (not counting at all) so i'm overjoyed at the current conditions. I do note the naysayers are not turning up now either.

Ps. I dont know much about weather prediction, but i like reading your comments or lack there of at the moment. Back to Ski.com.au

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