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#1268707 - 05/07/2014 12:20 Re: 2014 Typhoon Season (NW Pacific Basin) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2158
Loc: 中国上૲...
Rapid intensification during the last 24 hours and further intensification forecast. JMA 00Z forecast now has peak intensity 925HPa (possible Category 5)

The trajectory has slightly changed and this may affect the southern coastline of South Korea and Jeju, and landfall is expected near western Honshu (Japan) very late Wed night or very early Thu morning

TY 1408 (NEOGURI)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 5 July 2014
Analyses at 05/00 UTC
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°10'(15.2°) E138°20'(138.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE500km(270NM) NW330km(180NM)

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#1268750 - 06/07/2014 07:19 Re: 2014 Typhoon Season (NW Pacific Basin) [Re: Steven]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1641
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Wow... Looks very impressive and fast moving on the satellite pictures.
http://www.bellmereweather.com/MTSatPics/EquatorSlideShow.asp
_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Himawari Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

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#1268784 - 06/07/2014 13:09 Re: 2014 Typhoon Season (NW Pacific Basin) [Re: pabloako]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2158
Loc: 中国上૲...
JMA forecasting landfall for Thursday morning, but this system is large enough that the first effects will be felt hours before this happens. JMA forecast showing Category 3 landfall is likely.

TY 1408 (NEOGURI)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 6 July 2014
Analyses at 06/00 UTC
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N18°00'(18.0°) E133°00'(133.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more S650km(350NM) N440km(240NM)

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#1268795 - 06/07/2014 15:24 Re: 2014 Typhoon Season (NW Pacific Basin) [Re: Steven]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1641
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Here she is today at 13:30 (AEST). Very Beautiful from here, underneath it would be a differ thing!



http://www.bellmereweather.com/MTSatPics/MCIRNegWorld.asp
http://www.bellmereweather.com/MTSatPics/VisWorld.asp
_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Himawari Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

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#1268799 - 06/07/2014 16:00 Re: 2014 Typhoon Season (NW Pacific Basin) [Re: Steven]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5091
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
It's a monster that's for sure. It really is amazing just how much bigger and more powerful the NWP systems get compared to the rest of the world.(on a regular basis that is.)

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#1268801 - 06/07/2014 17:23 Re: 2014 Typhoon Season (NW Pacific Basin) [Re: Steven]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 4171
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Certainly is a monster typhoon alright. Reports has Typhoon Neoguri packing winds now over 250kph.

Satellite Imagery

Hope all will be safe in southern Japan!!
_________________________
MTD: mm
YTD: 2269.6 mm

June- 55.5mm

2014- 2352.6mm
2015- 2635.1mm
2016- 1495.7mm
2017- 2190.0mm
________________________
"Some people feel the rain, others just get wet”

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#1268842 - 07/07/2014 09:29 Re: 2014 Typhoon Season (NW Pacific Basin) [Re: Steven]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 4171
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Typhoon Neoguri is certainly ramping up with maximum winds gusting to 150kts(277kms). Now classified as VIOLENT!!!

The Japanese military in Okinawa has now designated typhoon preparedness level of TCCOR-2. Destructive winds of 50 knots or greater are expected within 24 hours.

Intensity-Violent
Center position of probability circle N24°05'(24.1°) E126°10'(126.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)
_________________________
MTD: mm
YTD: 2269.6 mm

June- 55.5mm

2014- 2352.6mm
2015- 2635.1mm
2016- 1495.7mm
2017- 2190.0mm
________________________
"Some people feel the rain, others just get wet”

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#1268858 - 07/07/2014 12:47 Re: 2014 Typhoon Season (NW Pacific Basin) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2158
Loc: 中国上૲...
JMA details for Neoguri at Jul 7 00Z (10am AEST/9am JST/8am CST)
The previous post is a forecast for Jul 8 00Z

Yesterday Neoguri increased in size (now 1,140km) and the SE quadrant is much stronger than the NW quadrant. The system is not circular and did encounter moderate vertical wind shear which slowed further development.

By tomorrow Neoguri is forecast to be "Violent" which is JMA's way of saying Category 5. JTWC has apparently already upgraded to this classification.

Eventual landfall in Kyushu, Japan late Wed/early Thu may cause serious damage. Very destructive winds are forecast for this area.

TY 1408 (NEOGURI)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 7 July 2014
Analyses at 07/00 UTC
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N20°25'(20.4°) E128°20'(128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL200km(110NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE700km(375NM) NW440km(240NM)

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#1268863 - 07/07/2014 16:00 Re: 2014 Typhoon Season (NW Pacific Basin) [Re: Steven]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1990
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Pressure starting to drop and wind speeds starting to rise in the southern Japanese island chains.
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/map65.html

Some of the temperature/dew point readings there are impressively oppressive.

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#1268887 - 07/07/2014 19:37 Re: 2014 Typhoon Season (NW Pacific Basin) [Re: Steven]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5210
There's also hints of another tropical system possibly forming by next week near where Neoguri formed as per the graphic from the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program:

https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3880/14408175100_4fbf992042_b.jpg


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#1268916 - 08/07/2014 08:47 Re: 2014 Typhoon Season (NW Pacific Basin) [Re: Steven]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 4171
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Super Typhoon NEOGURI is certainly looking the goods on radar now.

_________________________
MTD: mm
YTD: 2269.6 mm

June- 55.5mm

2014- 2352.6mm
2015- 2635.1mm
2016- 1495.7mm
2017- 2190.0mm
________________________
"Some people feel the rain, others just get wet”

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#1268947 - 08/07/2014 13:14 Re: 2014 Typhoon Season (NW Pacific Basin) [Re: Steven]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1990
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Observations in the Naha area are telling a story now.

Itokazu recorded a wind gust of 180 km\h about an hour ago.
Naha itself recorded a gust of 169 km\h and a pressure of 981hPa in the past hour.
Kerama Airport just to the west of Naha now off line.

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#1268963 - 08/07/2014 14:25 Re: 2014 Typhoon Season (NW Pacific Basin) [Re: Steven]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1990
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Bit more searching on the JMA site. Highest wind I could find so far.

Tokashiki: sustained 124km\h, gusting 189 km\h

Pressure still dropping at Naha; 980.4 hPa.

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#1269005 - 08/07/2014 17:03 Re: 2014 Typhoon Season (NW Pacific Basin) [Re: Steven]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 4171
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Interesting observations. Looks like Typhoon Neoguri is now moving over the southern Japanese islands with maximum winds recorded at 191km/h.

Reading reports coming out of the area, there are about 68 500 without power, trees down, cars flipped and minor structure damage at present.
_________________________
MTD: mm
YTD: 2269.6 mm

June- 55.5mm

2014- 2352.6mm
2015- 2635.1mm
2016- 1495.7mm
2017- 2190.0mm
________________________
"Some people feel the rain, others just get wet”

Top
#1269059 - 08/07/2014 20:19 Re: 2014 Typhoon Season (NW Pacific Basin) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2158
Loc: 中国上૲...
The JMA track/threat map shows the yellow outer circle has reached the Chinese coastline (Zhejiang province) and in the last hour has been moving NNW towards China.

This change in direction is temporary, the system will eventually move east and will hit Japan.

TY 1408 (NEOGURI)
Issued at 09:50 UTC, 8 July 2014
Analyses at 08/09 UTC
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N27°05'(27.1°) E125°30'(125.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more E280km(150NM) W200km(110NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E700km(375NM) W440km(240NM)

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#1269094 - 09/07/2014 02:34 Re: 2014 Typhoon Season (NW Pacific Basin) [Re: Steven]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5091
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
I think those oslands have been quite lucky with this one. Didn't seem to get as intense as predicted and no absolute direct hits?

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#1269173 - 09/07/2014 14:09 Re: 2014 Typhoon Season (NW Pacific Basin) [Re: Steven]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 4171
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Yeah the eye of Typhoon NEOGURI just licked the southern Islands. Very luck I would say.
_________________________
MTD: mm
YTD: 2269.6 mm

June- 55.5mm

2014- 2352.6mm
2015- 2635.1mm
2016- 1495.7mm
2017- 2190.0mm
________________________
"Some people feel the rain, others just get wet”

Top
#1269224 - 09/07/2014 16:40 Re: 2014 Typhoon Season (NW Pacific Basin) [Re: Steven]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5210
Still looking like heavy rain/flooding/potential landslides/tornado ingredients are the main risks for Japan during the next couple of days as Neoguri accelerates ENE.

The rugged mountainous terrain just behind the southern coast of Shikoku and Honshu will probably further enhance the rainfall amounts in those areas as the moist winds slam into them. Could also be heavy rainfall for some parts further north as well in addition to the current rainfall there near the stationary front.

P.S. oh and there was also an interesting article from Jeff Masters on the wrinkle that developed coming out of the eyewall at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2721

1st image: estimated rainfall in the 24hrs to 10am Thu from NOAA's satellite-based Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential system.

2nd image: estimate of landslide potential after 72hrs from 10am today from NASA. The white circles indicate areas where potential exists.

3rd image: estimate of flood potential by Sun morning from NASA.








Edited by Ken Kato (09/07/2014 16:42)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1269259 - 09/07/2014 19:31 Re: 2014 Typhoon Season (NW Pacific Basin) [Re: Steven]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 4171
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Thanks for the great info Ken. Very interesting article on the eye wall wrinkle.
_________________________
MTD: mm
YTD: 2269.6 mm

June- 55.5mm

2014- 2352.6mm
2015- 2635.1mm
2016- 1495.7mm
2017- 2190.0mm
________________________
"Some people feel the rain, others just get wet”

Top
#1269388 - 10/07/2014 15:34 Re: 2014 Typhoon Season (NW Pacific Basin) [Re: Steven]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5210
No probs HF.

Here's some remarkable footage that was captured in Nagano prefecture of one of the landslides that have already occurred: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YDioLimIS0

Last I heard, 3 have died so far in Japan and 40 injured.

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