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#1269332 - 10/07/2014 08:29 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Anthony Violi Offline
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Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2315
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
Levi's page is good Bill. Been following him on twitter for a couple of years.

But for graphics WB and Ryan Maue are the best IMO.

The info is the same but i love Ryans stuff.

You can see from here why Nino 3.4 has dropped, SE trades roaring along now and have pushed some cooler water NW into the Central Pacific, as well as the upwelling cooling effect.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-116.80,2.35,556

To me i don't see it changing, as much i want to see a Nino like 2009 its getting less likely by the day. I saw a video a few years back of the 1997 Kelvin Wave in action, will see if i can find it.
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#1269333 - 10/07/2014 08:43 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Anthony Violi Offline
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Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2315
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
Found it. This is a great video, one of my favourite on the subject of SSTs.

Notice how much water moves from the Western Pacific Warm pool into the Indian through the Indonesian Flowthrough.

Bob Tisdale has been onto this for many years.

Also another thing, if you look at 2009 the area from Chile atm is colder than normal, in 2009 it was warmer and that fed up into the Central pacific.

Watch the two Kelvin waves in 1997, phenomenal.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELDkYJWHNiU
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#1269351 - 10/07/2014 10:47 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
retired weather man Offline
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Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4265
Loc: Wynnum
Each week the local ABC TV weather presenter issues the latest weekly SOI and what it might mean for certain State areas. Sometimes a minor variation causes alterations to the same forecast area but the resultant weather usually remains unchanged.

Meanwhile the conjecture continues as it has done for about 10 months now as to if, when, how strong the coming El Nino will be. I have previously commented on all this so no need repeating it again.

With Australia sitting neatly between the Indian and Pacific Oceans both IOD and ESNO influence us, as well as the Southern Ocean but this latter one seems more complex.

I have never been a fan of the MJO and feel it is an " effect " rather than a " cause " and seems to be tied to the IOD.

Here on the East Coast the ESNO seems to reign supreme with little said about the IOD in the media whereas both influence us and when they work together such in 2010-11, we know the results.

Therefore I feel it is time for the experts to think of a COMBINED IOD/ESNO index for public consumption, which could iron out a few bumps over medium term forecasting.
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#1269355 - 10/07/2014 11:13 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1654
Cheers thanks Bill
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#1269363 - 10/07/2014 12:10 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: retired weather man]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17725
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
I have never been a fan of the MJO and feel it is an " effect " rather than a " cause "


Ditto.
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#1269397 - 10/07/2014 16:41 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: _Johnno_]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2610
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
while some other organisations around the world were screaming Super El Nino.



Which organisations? Certainly not any with credibility in weather/climate such as BOM or NOAA which were saying things like 70% chance of El Nino with no mention of strong, and certainly not super. After the 97/98 El nino the forecasters were criticized for not forecasting the strength of the event after the initial massive Kelvin Wave, so they can't win either way.

Of course there are always plenty of media reporters willing to take comments from sensible forecasters noting that conditions were very similar to 97/98 and that we could see a repeat and put this under a 'forecasters warn of super El Nino' headline.

Heat content in the western Pacific is rising again and is now above average. If we do get any significant westerly wind bursts there is a lot more potential than normal at this time of year during a possible El Nino year for a strong Kelvin Wave.


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#1269404 - 10/07/2014 17:35 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: Mike Hauber]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Mike said
"Which organisations? Certainly not any with credibility in weather/climate such as BOM or NOAA which were saying things like 70% chance of El Nino with no mention of strong, and certainly not super"

These organisations Mike
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/califor...erts-say-n83526
Monster El Nino May Be Brewing, Experts Say

By John Roach

quote/extract
'System is ripe'

"Other experts are more bullish on the prospects for an El Niņo, including Klaus Wolter at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Earth Systems Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo.

He independently tracks El Niņo conditions using an index based on observations of six variables such as sea surface and air temperatures as well as winds and clouds in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The index has pointed toward El Niņo formation since last December.

The index, he said, reinforces what a battery of computer models say: that it looks increasingly likely that there could be a large-scale El Niņo. In fact, the majority of a type of model based on conditions in the ocean and atmosphere "say that this looks bigger; this doesn't look like just your small event that is not going to produce that much impact."

Another researcher bullish on the prospects of another El Niņo is Wenju Cai, a climate scientist at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization in Australia who is the lead author of a paper published this January in Nature Climate Change that predicted the frequency of extreme El Niņo events will double this century.

-------
I have kept track of some of these predictions here
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2013/08/10/2014-long-range-forecasts/
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#1269409 - 10/07/2014 18:06 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: crikey]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2610
Loc: Buderim
As I said this is media reporters taking individual experts saying stuff like 'could be a large scale el nino' and putting it under a headline 'monster El Nino may be brewing'

The main expert quoted puts his own statement up at (link) and nowhere does he say monster or super el nino. The most aggressive statement he makes is '...el nino.. is clearly underway, leading to the next question of how big it will get'.

The organisation that he belongs to issued its monthly statement shortly before this article was published (here). It stated a 50% chance of an El Nino forming, and a model projection shows a peak strength of roughly 0.7. The model runs shows nino 3.4 ramping up to just below 0.6 in July, compared to a current value of about 0.4.

That is certainly not an organisation screaming super el nino.

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#1269421 - 10/07/2014 19:20 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: retired weather man]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Each week the local ABC TV weather presenter issues the latest weekly SOI and what it might mean for certain State areas. Sometimes a minor variation causes alterations to the same forecast area but the resultant weather usually remains unchanged.

Meanwhile the conjecture continues as it has done for about 10 months now as to if, when, how strong the coming El Nino will be. I have previously commented on all this so no need repeating it again.

With Australia sitting neatly between the Indian and Pacific Oceans both IOD and ESNO influence us, as well as the Southern Ocean but this latter one seems more complex.

I have never been a fan of the MJO and feel it is an " effect " rather than a " cause " and seems to be tied to the IOD.

Here on the East Coast the ESNO seems to reign supreme with little said about the IOD in the media whereas both influence us and when they work together such in 2010-11, we know the results.

Therefore I feel it is time for the experts to think of a COMBINED IOD/ESNO index for public consumption, which could iron out a few bumps over medium term forecasting.


RWM - you've got my vote.

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#1269430 - 10/07/2014 20:04 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Interesting ..The San Diego coast is being overrun by anchovies. http://oak.ctx.ly/r/1cq8e

"cool period in the PDO tends to favor La Niņa conditions and anchovies"
http://www.santacruzwaves.com/local-loop/ocean-circulation-and-the-amazing-anchovies-of-2013/
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#1269436 - 10/07/2014 20:58 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
I spose we all have to remember that those predicting super Ninos (or ninas for that matter) early on are more than likely going to be aligned with a particular ideology and want to push that point. But the fact remains that the general public were led to believe that a super nino was likely.

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#1269441 - 10/07/2014 22:06 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2315
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
JMA still going for a strong event, as is EC.

Im not going to include CFS because it doesn't even classify as a model.

Its garbage is what it is.
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#1269450 - 11/07/2014 01:11 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: Brett Guy]
Kev in Bello Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5041
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
I spose we all have to remember that those predicting super Ninos (or ninas for that matter) early on are more than likely going to be aligned with a particular ideology and want to push that point. But the fact remains that the general public were led to believe that a super nino was likely.

Could also say that some who see conspiracies in the climate debate perhaps see conspiracies everywhere wink
Nothing to do with climate change in this debate.... Has been fascinating to watch so far. Feels to me that all that was missing was a wwb at the right time.... And when that didn't happen the potential for a strong event dropped with it. So that asks why the mjo sat in one phase... Which leads to more questions. Don't feel like there is one answer either, more a case of understanding what causes each of the pieces that come together to make the El nino jigsaw...what effects they will have... Then working out if they are all fitting together and what the picture will look like. Great stuff to watch and learn about.

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#1269459 - 11/07/2014 07:06 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: Anthony Violi]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2610
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Anthony Violi
JMA still going for a strong event, as is EC.

Im not going to include CFS because it doesn't even classify as a model.

Its garbage is what it is.


At the start of the year CFS was correctly forecasting a trend towards El Nino (which may be about to bust, but has been close so far). And POAMA was forecasting a continuation of cool neutral....

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#1269468 - 11/07/2014 08:26 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: Kev in Bello]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Bello Boy
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
I spose we all have to remember that those predicting super Ninos (or ninas for that matter) early on are more than likely going to be aligned with a particular ideology and want to push that point. But the fact remains that the general public were led to believe that a super nino was likely.

Could also say that some who see conspiracies in the climate debate perhaps see conspiracies everywhere wink
Nothing to do with climate change in this debate.... Has been fascinating to watch so far. Feels to me that all that was missing was a wwb at the right time.... And when that didn't happen the potential for a strong event dropped with it. So that asks why the mjo sat in one phase... Which leads to more questions. Don't feel like there is one answer either, more a case of understanding what causes each of the pieces that come together to make the El nino jigsaw...what effects they will have... Then working out if they are all fitting together and what the picture will look like. Great stuff to watch and learn about.


Agree, but I don't always see a conspiracy. It just seems that when statements were made on model outputs alone they have tended to be conservative but when they get human input into the final outcome(ie oppinions)the predictions have been far more bullish. But you could be right about most of the ingredients being there and one or two things just failing to step things up. Although while I am by no means knowledgable on this subject I have always thought there is far more to ENSO and the weather it brings than just ENSO and this year may be a great example of that.

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#1269471 - 11/07/2014 08:42 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4265
Loc: Wynnum
In taking my recent post a stage further -

The public thanks to the media equates a positive SOI with wetter periods. The IOD is rarely heard here and in general a negative IOD equates with a wetter period.

So if a combined index is to be thought of, one of the indices would have to be reversed, say the IOD, equating a positive reading to wet. Also the amplitude would have to be widened to something akin to the SOI which roughly varies between +25 to -35.

Therefore in taking the recent "super" La Nina of 2010-12, where both worked together there would be a positive reading of around the 60 mark.

The situation could also work in reverse. As I have commented often lately the current NE Australia dry spell really started in August last year and has been going for nearly a year, despite rising SOI values for many months until recently, but no official El Nino declared.

However the positive IOD is most likely behind this dry spell but the general public over here is largely unaware of this and keep questioning the validity of the SOI readings alone and the so called reliance ( in the public eye ) on these readings.

A combined index in the manner described earlier in this post could shed more light for the public on what is happening and help them gain a bit more understanding of the processes involved.


Edited by retired weather man (11/07/2014 08:43)
Edit Reason: errors
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#1269620 - 12/07/2014 14:53 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Bang on RWM. It will get taken up soon enough once the exitement dies down from the discovery of ENSO. As far as I am aware ENSO only became even moderately understood 30 odd years ago which reality is not long enough to uunderstand how it really works and interacts with other phenomena.

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#1269681 - 12/07/2014 23:48 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1654
The IOD readings have been negative for the past month RVM so I think the persistent dry spell over Queensland has little to do with both the IOD and SOI/ENSO at the moment and other factors are coming into play.

From the BOM last week...

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has recorded negative values for three weeks, with the latest weekly index value (29 June) −0.7 °C. Waters to the northwest of Australia and south of Indonesia are warmer than average while sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea are near average.

Before this and most of 2014 the IOD had been neutral.


Edited by _Johnno_ (12/07/2014 23:52)
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#1269702 - 13/07/2014 09:10 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Bill Illis Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/07/2010
Posts: 1003

The fuel that fuels an El Nino is spent.


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#1269730 - 13/07/2014 14:22 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2315
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
Says it all Bill, there is no coming back. Which is a shame, i wanted a decent El nino to remove us from this state of flux we have been in since mid 2012.
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