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#1271173 - 28/07/2014 17:05 SA - Strong Cold Front and cold outbreak July 30 - Aug 1 2014
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1642
Loc: Uleybury
Maps pointing to a strong front at the end of the week, bringing strong winds and very cold air resulting in showers and hail and potentially another dusting of snow.

Temperatures in the 700 mark resulting between -12 and -14, with 500 at -34. Scattered hail showers and the possibility of snow and the chance of sleet on the Mount Lofty Rangers Friday Morning, also grading to Mt Remarkable and Bryan also St Marys Peak. Showers could be gusty with winds of 75 to 85km/h with averaging winds of 55-65km/h with some areas peaking to 100-110 km/h rain wise ranging from 10 to 20mm, increasing to 20 to 50mm on the Mt Lofty Rangers, and up to 50mm in the LSE.

Going for 20mm for my area. Going to be a wet finish to an already wet July.

Conditions to ease Friday afternoon as a High moves through which will result in some cool to cold nights.

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#1271182 - 28/07/2014 18:45 Re: SA - Strong Cold Front and cold outbreak July 30 - Aug 1 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2071
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Have yet to see any impact of this weather system today looks like its died in the butt and will smash victoria

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#1271205 - 28/07/2014 21:21 Re: SA - Strong Cold Front and cold outbreak July 30 - Aug 1 2014 [Re: rstewart84]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14848
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Originally Posted By: rstewart84
Have yet to see any impact of this weather system today looks like its died in the butt and will smash victoria


It's not due till Thursday!

TS cool

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#1271236 - 29/07/2014 11:10 Re: SA - Strong Cold Front and cold outbreak July 30 - Aug 1 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2071
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
It seems the forecast has changed for thursday TS doesnt look to be as wild what i wouldnt give for mother nature to shift all this wet weather away from Australia so we can have a dry august

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#1271242 - 29/07/2014 13:35 Re: SA - Strong Cold Front and cold outbreak July 30 - Aug 1 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
liz Offline
Wind Speed Queen

Registered: 02/12/2001
Posts: 1901
Loc: Near Victor Harbor S.A.
Gusty winds along the coast, 46 knot gust recorded at Kingscote K/Island.

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#1271243 - 29/07/2014 13:35 Re: SA - Strong Cold Front and cold outbreak July 30 - Aug 1 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 527
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
BOM spokesperson on the ABC Country Hour today mentioned the "possibility" of a light dusting of snow on the higher peaks early friday. Mentioned also very cold temps.

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#1271245 - 29/07/2014 14:13 Re: SA - Strong Cold Front and cold outbreak July 30 - Aug 1 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2103
Loc: Clare, SA
Both GFS and Access have the 528 line touching Adelaide, how far this cold air pushes north is the question, if that colder air can go north into the Mid North, it will be a very nice outcome. Certainly Mount Lofty is also a reasonable chance of flakes as it currently stands.
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#1271260 - 29/07/2014 17:20 Re: SA - Strong Cold Front and cold outbreak July 30 - Aug 1 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1642
Loc: Uleybury
Thursday:
15
Partly cloudy. Scattered showers developing during the morning, increasing to widespread and becoming heavy at times about the hills mid-morning. Possible small hail during the evening. Isolated thunderstorms during the evening. Winds northwesterly 40 to 55 km/h tending westerly 45 to 60 km/h in the middle of the day then decreasing to 35 to 45 km/h in the evening. 3-10mm

Friday:
13
Partly cloudy. Possible small hail and isolated thunderstorms in the morning. Scattered showers, easing to isolated showers by afternoon. Winds west to southwesterly 35 to 45 km/h tending south to southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the evening. 1-4mm

6-15mm and 2-6mm for here.

State Forecast Friday:
Possible snow about the higher peaks of the Mount Lofty and Flinders Ranges during the early morning.

Mt Lofty Ranges:

Possible snow showers above 600 metres in the morning

Flinders Ranges:
Isolated showers south of Hawker until evening, possibly falling as snow above 900 metres in the morning.

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#1271261 - 29/07/2014 17:22 Re: SA - Strong Cold Front and cold outbreak July 30 - Aug 1 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2103
Loc: Clare, SA
BoM already have in their state forecast for Friday, it's pretty rare for them to chuck this in this early.

Quote:
"Possible small hail and isolated squally thunderstorms south of about Adelaide until early afternoon. Possible snow about the higher peaks of the Mount Lofty and Flinders Ranges during the early morning"


I don't want to get my hopes up but it is looking pretty good atm. Latest GFS runs are very close to being as cold as the October 2012 event. Very much a ssw aspect to this, which is perhaps less favorable for the Lofties as it is a little dry and Mount Lofty could be shadowed, but provided a stream establishes, could do very well for the Mid North. Almost a certainty for snow on peaks higher than 800m or so if one trusts current runs. Still the chance the shortwave responsible for dragging this colder air up could go south so have to wait and see.
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#1271262 - 29/07/2014 17:30 Re: SA - Strong Cold Front and cold outbreak July 30 - Aug 1 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2103
Loc: Clare, SA
And this is in the Mount Lofty Ranges forecast.

"Partly cloudy. Possible snow showers above 600 metres in the morning. Possible small hail in the morning. Scattered showers, becoming less likely during the afternoon, clearing during the evening. Isolated thunderstorms in the morning. Winds west to southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h turning southerly 25 to 35 km/h during the afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h during the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 8 and 12."

Another point to note is VERY strong winds with the trough, 45 knots at 850, certainly gusts of 90km+ on the highest peaks you would have to expect.

Sorry Stormcapture, didn't see your post poke


Edited by Markus (29/07/2014 17:32)
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#1271263 - 29/07/2014 17:33 Re: SA - Strong Cold Front and cold outbreak July 30 - Aug 1 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1642
Loc: Uleybury
I would love to see this event unfold at Lofty, I can get as far as the City and not up to Lofty itself frown , but some really good weather on the way.

Will be freezing there.

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#1271266 - 29/07/2014 17:57 Re: SA - Strong Cold Front and cold outbreak July 30 - Aug 1 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1642
Loc: Uleybury
Friday:
Melrose Snow Overnights include -2 then -5 then -6 and -5
Hallet Snow
Mt Lofty Snow

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#1271267 - 29/07/2014 18:12 Re: SA - Strong Cold Front and cold outbreak July 30 - Aug 1 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7029
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
GFS [NOAA] (run 00Z 29 jul 2014 to 12Z 05 aug 2014) => diurnal temperature changes could be disrupted, if not already.

Snow (possible higher peaks) => by 31st (same run). Getting colder.

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#1271271 - 29/07/2014 18:45 Re: SA - Strong Cold Front and cold outbreak July 30 - Aug 1 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17491
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
I can't get up to the summit or anywhere first thing as I am working Friday..... BUT.... it just so happens my tour is to the hills, which generally includes a visit to the summit first thing (approx. 9.30) so hoping there is something still around...

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#1271287 - 29/07/2014 20:17 Re: SA - Strong Cold Front and cold outbreak July 30 - Aug 1 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
Jaybee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2011
Posts: 93
Loc: Hope Valley, SA
I will be able to be up at Mt Lofty from as early as I can be bothered getting up until 11:30am. Any idea what the best time might be for snow?

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#1271288 - 29/07/2014 20:25 Re: SA - Strong Cold Front and cold outbreak July 30 - Aug 1 2014 [Re: Jaybee]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1642
Loc: Uleybury
Originally Posted By: Jaybee
I will be able to be up at Mt Lofty from as early as I can be bothered getting up until 11:30am. Any idea what the best time might be for snow?


MetEye is saying anywhere between 4:00AM to 9AM. 7AM being the possible hotspot time imo, by 10:00, gone.

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#1271291 - 29/07/2014 20:44 Re: SA - Strong Cold Front and cold outbreak July 30 - Aug 1 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1642
Loc: Uleybury
Although not SA related, poor tassie being smashed by those fronts, Maatsuyker Island battered with 174km/h, 19 AWS's topping 100 or more, 6 of them over 130, 2 over 150km/h.

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#1271294 - 29/07/2014 21:05 Re: SA - Strong Cold Front and cold outbreak July 30 - Aug 1 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
kgb007 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/12/2010
Posts: 1511
Loc: Hope Valley, SA
Originally Posted By: StormCapture
Although not SA related, poor tassie being smashed by those fronts, Maatsuyker Island battered with 174km/h, 19 AWS's topping 100 or more, 6 of them over 130, 2 over 150km/h.


According to Wikipedia 176kmh is the highest recorded there, this was in 2011! This is equivalent to a Cat 3 cyclone!

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#1271301 - 29/07/2014 22:09 Re: SA - Strong Cold Front and cold outbreak July 30 - Aug 1 2014 [Re: StormCapture]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 527
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
I have to be at work at 7am friday, so I will take my chance from 5 am on mt barker summit

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#1271304 - 29/07/2014 23:12 Re: SA - Strong Cold Front and cold outbreak July 30 - Aug 1 2014 [Re: rstewart84]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14848
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Originally Posted By: rstewart84
It seems the forecast has changed for thursday TS doesnt look to be as wild what i wouldnt give for mother nature to shift all this wet weather away from Australia so we can have a dry august


No....the forecast changed to make it more wild! Has been upgrading with every run since 2 days ago this system.

TS cool

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