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#1271145 - 28/07/2014 13:02 VIC - West/Northwesterly Wind Belt With Embedded Lows & Fronts - Mild & Windy Ahead Of Major Cold Outbreak With Squalls, Heavy Rain, Storms, Hail, Possible Low-Level Snow - July 28 - August 2 2014
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5526
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
G'day and bula everybody! smile

I had meant to start this topic over the weekend but the forum was down. The last event wasn't that exciting but this upcoming event sure looks very promising, so here we go! smile

High pressure to our north is spreading a persistent west/northwest/northerly airflow across much of Southern Australia and Tasmania, as well as over the Great Australian Bight and the Southern Ocean to the south. Embedded in this airstream to the south, a series of cold fronts, troughs and low pressure cells are currently on the move.

Northerly winds are expected to strengthen across Victoria as the first one or two of these cold fronts brush past the State later today and tomorrow, before moderating somewhat and shifting northwesterly. Then on Wednesday, winds will swing back northerly and strengthen once again, possibly to gale-force, ahead of a potentially major cold front, which looks set to burst across Victoria on Thursday and Friday.

Conditions ahead of the approaching storm are expected to be fairly mild, almost springlike, with high temperatures reaching around 16-17C here in Melbourne and up to 20C in Mildura between now and Wednesday. In the wake of the front due on Thursday/Friday is a very, VERY cold airmass!! smile grin eek crazy

Monday: Mostly fine today, apart from possible showers and maybe a thunderstorm developing later over the Southwest, with the possibility of afternoon showers over the Northwest/Mallee region as well. Fresh, gusty northwest/northerly winds.

Tuesday: Showers increasing from the west, mainly on and south of the Great Dividing Range, with snowfalls down to 1600m, but mainly fine in the Northwest/Mallee region and in East Gippsland. Fresh to strong northwesterly winds, possibly gale-force at elevation and near the coast.

Wednesday: Showers continuing mainly on and south of the Great Dividing Range, but spreading onto the Northern Plains. Mainly fine in East Gippsland and in the Northwest/Mallee region. Strong, gusty west/northwesterly winds tending northerly.

Thursday: Cloud increasing with showers and thunderstorms developing over the west and spreading eastwards, tending to rain at times. Northwest/northerly winds strengthening to gale-force and then shifting colder, squally west/southwesterly. Showers and thunderstorms to follow the change with local hail, and snowfalls lower to 500m (or lower) later in the day!

Friday: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms, along with local hail, and snowfalls down to around 500m (or lower) at first. Strong to gale-force west/southwesterly winds.

Saturday: wind easing and showers clearing, local morning fog and frost.

Exciting times ahead guys... looking forward to it! grin

Aussiestormfreak smile

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#1271149 - 28/07/2014 13:21 Re: VIC - West/Northwesterly Wind Belt With Embedded Lows & Fronts - Mild & Windy Ahead Of Major Cold Outbreak With Squalls, Heavy Rain, Storms, Hail, Possible Low-Level Snow - July 28 - August 2 2014 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5526
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Very mild conditions outside, with the temperature peaking at 18.7C a short while ago! Winds have been very gusty, with the strongest gust reaching 28.4km/h. Lovely sunshine! smile

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#1271188 - 28/07/2014 19:04 Re: VIC - West/Northwesterly Wind Belt With Embedded Lows & Fronts - Mild & Windy Ahead Of Major Cold Outbreak With Squalls, Heavy Rain, Storms, Hail, Possible Low-Level Snow - July 28 - August 2 2014 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very Interesting this Thursday and next Friday 1st of August is kind of same pattern of cold blast..Today Tasmania lucky to have thunderstorms... All areas in Northern Australia is dry no rain.

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#1271202 - 28/07/2014 20:58 Re: VIC - West/Northwesterly Wind Belt With Embedded Lows & Fronts - Mild & Windy Ahead Of Major Cold Outbreak With Squalls, Heavy Rain, Storms, Hail, Possible Low-Level Snow - July 28 - August 2 2014 [Re: chasers addict]
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3563
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Very Interesting this Thursday and next Friday 1st of August is kind of same pattern of cold blast..Today Tasmania lucky to have thunderstorms... All areas in Northern Australia is dry no rain.


Yep its winter, nothing unusual about these conditions

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#1271204 - 28/07/2014 21:21 Re: VIC - West/Northwesterly Wind Belt With Embedded Lows & Fronts - Mild & Windy Ahead Of Major Cold Outbreak With Squalls, Heavy Rain, Storms, Hail, Possible Low-Level Snow - July 28 - August 2 2014 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5526
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yes, nothing unusual about this time of year! smile

Anyway, about to get very stormy...

Severe Weather Warning

IDV28000

Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds
for people in the North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
Issued at 3:14 pm EST on Monday 28 July 2014.
Weather Situation
A northwesterly airstream will strengthen over Victoria overnight as a cold front crosses the Bight to approach the southwest of the Sate early Tuesday. The front will then slip away to the southeast across southwestern Victoria and Bass Strait during Tuesday, with strong to gale force north to northwesterly winds across southern districts slowly contracting east during the day.

Damaging winds around 55 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are forecast to develop overnight and during Tuesday about the ranges and over coastal areas of the southern districts. The strong to gale force northwesterly winds will slowly moderate from the west later in the day.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
Keep clear of fallen power lines.
For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Monday.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300-659-217*.

The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1271235 - 29/07/2014 11:08 Re: VIC - West/Northwesterly Wind Belt With Embedded Lows & Fronts - Mild & Windy Ahead Of Major Cold Outbreak With Squalls, Heavy Rain, Storms, Hail, Possible Low-Level Snow - July 28 - August 2 2014 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5526
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Very blustery conditions out there! We've had gusts to about 36km/h, but they could be much stronger than that! No rain as yet, overnight low was 11.1C (making it our warmest night for the month). Currently 13.7C with the barometer showing 1011hPa. smile

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#1271248 - 29/07/2014 14:37 Re: VIC - West/Northwesterly Wind Belt With Embedded Lows & Fronts - Mild & Windy Ahead Of Major Cold Outbreak With Squalls, Heavy Rain, Storms, Hail, Possible Low-Level Snow - July 28 - August 2 2014 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Plagueis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 58
Loc: Melbourne VIC
Whoah! Gusting really strong in Ferntree Gully, don't have an anemometer but Scoresby is reading 52km/h

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#1271249 - 29/07/2014 14:41 Re: VIC - West/Northwesterly Wind Belt With Embedded Lows & Fronts - Mild & Windy Ahead Of Major Cold Outbreak With Squalls, Heavy Rain, Storms, Hail, Possible Low-Level Snow - July 28 - August 2 2014 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1519
Loc: Orange, NSW
Little shower here in the afternoon, very localised and didn't drop much. Not too windy here yet, just around 40kph.
_________________________
Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1271254 - 29/07/2014 16:03 Re: VIC - West/Northwesterly Wind Belt With Embedded Lows & Fronts - Mild & Windy Ahead Of Major Cold Outbreak With Squalls, Heavy Rain, Storms, Hail, Possible Low-Level Snow - July 28 - August 2 2014 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1099
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Good to see forcefield is holding up a this time of year!
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1271270 - 29/07/2014 18:45 Re: VIC - West/Northwesterly Wind Belt With Embedded Lows & Fronts - Mild & Windy Ahead Of Major Cold Outbreak With Squalls, Heavy Rain, Storms, Hail, Possible Low-Level Snow - July 28 - August 2 2014 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Was everywhere on media warning for SE Australia South NSW for Thursday powerful cold blast from Antarctica and WA miss out.
Thanks to polar belt path to brash Victoria.

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#1271278 - 29/07/2014 19:33 Re: VIC - West/Northwesterly Wind Belt With Embedded Lows & Fronts - Mild & Windy Ahead Of Major Cold Outbreak With Squalls, Heavy Rain, Storms, Hail, Possible Low-Level Snow - July 28 - August 2 2014 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
0.0mm here and a high of 15.9c today though its currently 15.8c
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1271289 - 29/07/2014 20:40 Re: VIC - West/Northwesterly Wind Belt With Embedded Lows & Fronts - Mild & Windy Ahead Of Major Cold Outbreak With Squalls, Heavy Rain, Storms, Hail, Possible Low-Level Snow - July 28 - August 2 2014 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1519
Loc: Orange, NSW
BoM have updated their forecast for this event - snow above 800m on Thu night, above 500m all day Friday with chance of storms/hail until the night, and above 600m on Saturday until the evening. Very optimistic forecast to have snow continuing for that long. Avalon might be in luck for some sustained falls out at Mt Macedon and it sounds like a pretty good chance for a flake or two here. I don't think I'll be getting much sleep Friday morning smile

Showers continued here throughout the day, total of 1mm with a max of 11.9c.
_________________________
Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1271292 - 29/07/2014 20:45 Re: VIC - West/Northwesterly Wind Belt With Embedded Lows & Fronts - Mild & Windy Ahead Of Major Cold Outbreak With Squalls, Heavy Rain, Storms, Hail, Possible Low-Level Snow - July 28 - August 2 2014 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1184
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Southern tassie has recorded a 174km/h gust..... pretty wild to the south
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1271298 - 29/07/2014 21:16 Re: VIC - West/Northwesterly Wind Belt With Embedded Lows & Fronts - Mild & Windy Ahead Of Major Cold Outbreak With Squalls, Heavy Rain, Storms, Hail, Possible Low-Level Snow - July 28 - August 2 2014 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1541
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
Woo hoo! Sounds good but I'm afraid that I am sceptical. I will believe it when I see it !

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#1271313 - 30/07/2014 00:34 Re: VIC - West/Northwesterly Wind Belt With Embedded Lows & Fronts - Mild & Windy Ahead Of Major Cold Outbreak With Squalls, Heavy Rain, Storms, Hail, Possible Low-Level Snow - July 28 - August 2 2014 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5526
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Been a wild day here! The temperature struggled to a peak of 14.3C late in the morning, but then it fell back into the 12-13C range and it's still only 12.7C as of now!! eek

I'm surprised my area had no serious wind damage or even blackouts today, given how bluster conditions were out there! Conditions have moderated somewhat outside but still a fairly gusty night ahead.

Very fast-moving clouds today as well! Only a few patches of blue sky and the odd sunny break, but otherwise overcast with light/moderate showers. As for rainfall, we managed to collect 1mm. smile

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#1271322 - 30/07/2014 07:58 Re: VIC - West/Northwesterly Wind Belt With Embedded Lows & Fronts - Mild & Windy Ahead Of Major Cold Outbreak With Squalls, Heavy Rain, Storms, Hail, Possible Low-Level Snow - July 28 - August 2 2014 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Certainly some pretty cold progs on the models for Friday and Friday night, guess it depends on how much precip is around at this time and if does end up chilly enough. Will keep watching the satellite waiting for northward push on that cold pool.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1271335 - 30/07/2014 10:09 Re: VIC - West/Northwesterly Wind Belt With Embedded Lows & Fronts - Mild & Windy Ahead Of Major Cold Outbreak With Squalls, Heavy Rain, Storms, Hail, Possible Low-Level Snow - July 28 - August 2 2014 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5526
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yes Ruckle! ACCESS still has cold front building into Victoria tomorrow and then charging well north into NSW/ACT on Friday (it shows up well on the satellite imagery to the south of Australia). Fingers crossed for how conditions will fair for low-level snow on Friday as the cold pool crosses the State! Also anxious to see how much rain we'll receive! smile

Conditions have moderated a fair bit, a mix of sun and cloud with winds only topping about 20km/h; our overnight low was 10.6C and it's 14.2C outside atm. But as the cold front approaches Victoria tonight, conditions will start becoming stormy once again!

Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds
for people in the North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
Issued at 6:06 am EST on Wednesday 30 July 2014.
Weather Situation
A strong cold front south of the Bight will move towards southwestern Victoria tonight before crossing the State during Thursday.

Damaging winds around 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are forecast for parts of the North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts tonight. Stronger winds are expected during Thursday morning.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
Keep clear of fallen power lines.
For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

The next warning will be issued by 11:00 am EST Wednesday.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300-659-217*.

The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1271352 - 30/07/2014 12:28 Re: VIC - West/Northwesterly Wind Belt With Embedded Lows & Fronts - Mild & Windy Ahead Of Major Cold Outbreak With Squalls, Heavy Rain, Storms, Hail, Possible Low-Level Snow - July 28 - August 2 2014 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
SE Australia SES will get Busy Job for wind damage clean up and more likely some areas will have no power and road accidents.
Snow Mountains will very dangerous roads as freezing level falls to 500m.

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#1271356 - 30/07/2014 13:17 Re: VIC - West/Northwesterly Wind Belt With Embedded Lows & Fronts - Mild & Windy Ahead Of Major Cold Outbreak With Squalls, Heavy Rain, Storms, Hail, Possible Low-Level Snow - July 28 - August 2 2014 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5526
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Batten down the hatches everyone, could be potentially very dangerous!! eek

Severe Weather Warning

IDV28000

Severe Weather Warning
for destructive winds and damaging winds
for people in the Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
Issued at 11:00 am EST on Wednesday 30 July 2014.
Weather Situation
A strong cold front south of the Bight will move towards southwestern Victoria tonight before crossing the State during Thursday.

Destructive winds around 80 km/h with peak gusts of 140 km/h are forecast for parts of the North East, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts above 1000 metres during tonight and Thursday. In lower lying areas gusts to 110 km/h are forecast.

Damaging winds around 60 km/h with peak gusts of 110 km/h are forecast for the Mallee, Wimmera, North Central, South West and Central forecast districts and parts of the Northern Country forecast district.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
Keep clear of fallen power lines.
For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Wednesday.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300-659-217*.

The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1271374 - 30/07/2014 15:14 Re: VIC - West/Northwesterly Wind Belt With Embedded Lows & Fronts - Mild & Windy Ahead Of Major Cold Outbreak With Squalls, Heavy Rain, Storms, Hail, Possible Low-Level Snow - July 28 - August 2 2014 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Newbury1 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 14
Loc: Blackwood
Hi all,
I have got a real feel about this one - it could be the best snow event for Victoria since 1951 when the CBD experienced settled snow for many hours.
Here in Ballarat we have not had settling snow for some years. It used to be a regular winter occurrence even if only once a year.

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