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#1272299 - 06/08/2014 09:19 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6702
Thanks Wind Junkie smile and yes I have noticed how unusually clear it is too. It's been like this pretty much all winter smile

Yeah DB, we really some rain. We need an ECL to make the weather more exciting and to give us some solid falls. Lets hope that we don't see an early start to the fire season like last year
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1272302 - 06/08/2014 09:43 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Onya reillyp. Def toucha the old flu for me. Cough cough.

Clear and slack wind. Clear and crisp night. Warm day ahead.
Yes Drizzly we need rain soon or could be nasty fire season again. I was under impression that when California in drought as is case now, that we got plenty rain. Big climate driver stuff goes over my head so maybe my understanding very simplistic.
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1272305 - 06/08/2014 10:12 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Canberra's Weather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/11/2005
Posts: 1141
Loc: Canberra
We've had a good run of 6C nights here in Canberra, if it was a game of cricket, it would be a pretty good innings. Sadly, we aren't likely to see a repeat of such temperatures in a row for quite a number of years.....

Alongside these lovely winter nights is the wall-to-wall sunshine, no-one could object to that, surely (as long as the temperature stays down) I'm sorry about the lack of ECLs and I do understand also about the increased bushfire risk with the extended dry spells. I hope for you guys the ECLs will be back soon.
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#1272306 - 06/08/2014 10:27 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
It's purely academic whether an El Nino forms or not now, we're definitely in a classic Nino pattern and have been for months now. A picture is worth a thousand words...




As for ECLs, we have had some substantial systems in August before (1986 and 1998 come to mind immediately), but significant rainfall events from August-early October are fairly few and far between.

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#1272307 - 06/08/2014 10:43 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4033
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I've just been outside for the first time today. Cool, crisp, bright sunshine and cloudless, light blue sky, but somewhat spoiled by smoke haze. There must be hazard reduction burns taking place around Sydney. Can't compain though, I suppose it's necessary.

It's getting very dry around Sydney. Observatory Hill has had about 17mm of rain since mid June, nearly all of it on the weekend of July 26-27 (unfortunate timing that). This is about about 10 to 12% of the average that would be expected over that 51 day period.

That looks set to change if GFS on this site is correct (US8/16 days), with persistent S-E winds from next Monday as far as it can see, with an ECL developing around Saturday week.

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#1272308 - 06/08/2014 11:07 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6702
Yeah we'll be very lucky if we actually see a decent ECL this August. We haven't seen one yet this winter and usually out of the 3 months of winter, August is the most lacking in terms of ECL's
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1272309 - 06/08/2014 11:19 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8466
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Doubt there will be much of a fire season this time round as the el nino chances wither away. Couple this with the length of the dry spell = big rains/flood around the corner, 'when' that will happen is the question. The record 328mm that hammered Obs hill in Aug '86 came at the back of a dry spell like this one. Nature as always knows how to correct that.

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#1272311 - 06/08/2014 11:39 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10095
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
A good -5 here this morning. Best frost of the year. Not as cold as Canberra and surrounds but as good as we get these days. smile

Stunning day!!

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#1272316 - 06/08/2014 12:13 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Jon77 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/04/2012
Posts: 447
That potential ECL that was in the far reaches of the model run for the Sydney area has been bumped north and would be a Northern NSW / SE Queensland event.

Would be very useful for those areas if it came off.

Far too much uncertainty however. But it looks like a rain event of some kind may impact the eastern seaboard. Closing your eyes and sticking a pin in the map might be just as accurate as the weather models on where it will be though.


Edited by Jon77 (06/08/2014 12:14)

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#1272319 - 06/08/2014 14:05 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Obs Hill looking to peak well above forecast. Just above forecast here. Should hit 20 with northerly wind. NE after 3 maybe. Smell of wind off ocean a rarity this winter. Nor Easter used to drive my dear old dad balmy. He hated them with a passion. Can't say I like em either although they do keep summers on coast cooler
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1272323 - 06/08/2014 14:45 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6702
It has warmed up quite a lot here since the westerly came through about 20 minutes ago. Albion Park is sitting on 22.6C which is the warmest in NSW. Very pleasant.

I don't particularly like NE'ers. They're okay in summer because they cool everything down, but I hate them in winter.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1272326 - 06/08/2014 16:27 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4033
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The smoke haze over Sydney shows up on the Webcam: http://www.sydney-webcam.com/index.php?nav=cam1

(picture will change)

The seabreeze got up today after a quite warm early afternoon. The temperature really shot up from about 11:00.

P.S. the forecast is now using the term 'medium' in relation to the possibility of showers. I don't recall seeing that before. I assume that this means a probability of about 50% of a measurable amount of rain.


Edited by Steve777 (06/08/2014 16:33)
Edit Reason: P.S.

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#1272352 - 07/08/2014 07:40 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Heatwave Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/10/2001
Posts: 116
Loc: Penrith
Hopefully this morning is the last frost we get for this winter. Got down to 1.3, it's always fun taking my dogs for a walk in the morning wearing many layers smile

I was quite surprised the thick smoke from last night dissipated by this morning.


Edited by Heatwave (07/08/2014 07:41)

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#1272356 - 07/08/2014 08:48 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10095
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Just a light frost here this morning. Going to be a sunny day again. smile

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#1272357 - 07/08/2014 09:12 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Pretty cloudy here with a languid NWester. Forecast is 'mostly sunny' and 17. prob get over that if wind does not get round more to west or SW. Was pretty dewy overnight. Bit of a cold burst on cards next week. High pressure weather is boring stuff.
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1272358 - 07/08/2014 09:26 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10095
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Official temp in now, about -1.

Some light scattered cloud turning up, not sure if it will increase much, probably not. Doesn't look like particularly "windy" cloud either. Maybe just a sign of a smidge more moisture in the air.

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#1272359 - 07/08/2014 09:39 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6702
Clear and sunny here this morning with a moderate westerly and 14C atm. Forecast says 17C, I reckon we'll hit a top of 18 or 19C. Looks like we could also see some coastal showers with that cold burst. Unfortunately it's not going to be from an ECL, instead from a very strong high.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1272361 - 07/08/2014 09:53 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Ron W at Walcha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/04/2008
Posts: 426
Loc: Walcha. NSW Northern Tableland...
NT's turn for good frosts. -8.3 this morning according to the brand new Vantage Pro we have installed in Walcha.

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#1272363 - 07/08/2014 10:33 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10095
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Been a bit quiet of late Ron. smile

That's a decent frost!! smile

That cloud increasing slightly here, clearly see the band approaching from South on Sat Pic.

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#1272373 - 07/08/2014 13:43 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4666
Another cracking day along the coast, today slightly cooler than the past 3 days. Today was only suppose to get to 17c, its a comfortable 19c now, wind has eased off somewhat since this morning.
As you can see in the pic, the water is nice and clear!!

003 by grouter75, on Flickr

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