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#1271141 - 28/07/2014 12:41 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Dawoodman]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
And we are back online.... BoM have snow forcast for Friday morning up on mt Dandenong.... Looks to be quite a cold front


Yep! Great to be back online Dawoodman! I'm just setting up a thread for the upcoming event, should be ready soon! Boy the event looks insane... so looking forward to it!! grin

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#1271151 - 28/07/2014 13:46 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5472
This week's frontal systems look like doozies, especially the one later this week. Very strong winds and snow down to low levels look like being on the cards.

Here's some outputs from my scripts. As always, on the weather potential map, where different weather types overlap, the one higher in the list will obscure the one below it e.g. thunderstorms or snow will obscure windy. For the gust map, the gust speeds are bias-corrected to better match past observations:




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#1272072 - 03/08/2014 11:04 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5472
Some longer range modelling's been hinting at another cold SW'ly outbreak with an outside chance of snow down to low levels over southern SE Australia around a week from now. EC currently has sub -4C temps at 850hpa coming up. Still early days though so this is subject to change.

Here's what the NCEP ensemble currently thinks for the period between the 9th to 18th Aug:



Edited by Ken Kato (03/08/2014 11:12)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1272109 - 03/08/2014 19:09 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Well Ken, you must feel pretty chuffed with the success of your scripts smile (I am!).

In regards to the weather in a weeks time, per your posts above, I can see what I think is an unusual situation.

A high pressure system forming in the bight (summer stuff) that "traps" (rather than "nudges up") a pool of cold "blue line" upper air to the NNE of it, cutting it off over SE Aus.

East Coast Low fodder.

One to watch for sure!!!!

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#1272134 - 03/08/2014 23:23 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Urgh!! I hate stubborn high pressure, last summer's run of high pressure was a nightmare (where were our usual summertime low pressure troughs/easterly dips from Queensland when Victoria needed them?!) frown

But fingers crossed the potential events in store over the next 7-10 days or so, the more rain we get the better! And hopefully an increased chance for low-level snow!! smile

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#1272248 - 05/08/2014 10:42 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5472
Thanks Petros smile Yes I was happy, but moreso because I was in Melbourne at the time and I wanted it to come off while I was there.

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#1273801 - 19/08/2014 19:07 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
After a couple of fine days later this week, the outlook shows a weak cut-off from the next LWT passing the bight later in the week influence Vic into next weekend:


...not a "biggie" but any takers to start a thread on this?

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#1274377 - 25/08/2014 18:59 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The Ides of September.....

The normal drying out after winter looks set to arrive right on cue....

We can expect the start of the typical strong early spring NW'lies after this weeks sunny break??


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#1274379 - 25/08/2014 19:16 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yep looks like the fine spell that's moving in for the last week of winter will give way to our first active springtime cold front. Hope we get good rains and storms this coming spring and summer!

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#1274499 - 26/08/2014 19:01 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Todays GFS shows that the low off E Aus blocks/pushes "under" the approaching NW'lies (my above post) for Vic (perhaps not so SA over the weekend):


... so now we have that system slumping to SE Tas allowing a cut-off low to potentially form for next Mon SE NSW instead.

... and we have both AccG and GFS mooting the following LWT to create a 2nd cut-off, leaving Vic with lows W and E of Vic by next Tuesday!!

Not an Armageddon event weatherwise, but bloody unusual in my book.

...another anything may happen/watch this space scenario into early next week.

If you have a comment - pls start a thread!! smile



Edited by Petros (26/08/2014 19:04)

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#1274548 - 26/08/2014 23:09 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I suggest we wait a bit longer Petros for the picture to become a little clearer. Still looks as though a major cold front is due to burst across Victoria early next week, but not sure what the weather's next move will be from there onwards... smile

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#1274759 - 28/08/2014 18:36 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5472
Yeah it's been looking interesting. If the Tasman Sea cyclogenesis can get really cranking again next week, that'll help the chances of a cold outbreak. Here's a couple of outputs:




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#1274769 - 28/08/2014 20:32 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Spaghetti plot of min MSLP over the next 7 days!

VERY interesting script Ken - my favourite so far! smile

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#1274822 - 29/08/2014 19:32 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Sorry to leap frog over the next change into this weekend (there is a thread for this), but the following weather event looks potentially much more interesting to me (long way out but GFS and AccG hint):


What better ingredients could you put into the soup for a SE Aus rain/late-snow event? (cold air, very very cold air at 120Edeg to feed up, cut-off low potentially to shear near Pt Lincon SA, blocking low sitting E of E-NZ, ...and the time of the year).

Something that might be, or might have been, to watch with keen interest eh?


Edited by Petros (29/08/2014 19:39)

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#1274845 - 30/08/2014 00:50 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Good on ya for pointing that out Petros! Hope it comes off as predicted! Looks like we've got a whole series of cold fronts moving into position in time for the start of spring here in Victoria! Hope things really get into high gear as the spring equinox draws closer and then the annual pre-monsoon build-up starts up north, allowing hot air and potential tropical humidity to be added into the equation, and leading to increasing blustery, stormy weather! smile

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#1275422 - 04/09/2014 15:38 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
This coming weekend looks mighty fine; that potential frontal system/trough I spoke of a few days ago is weakening and not going to do much other than perhaps set off the odd shower (maybe a storm) over Western Victoria before heading northeast into NSW and Queensland. Otherwise the dominating factor is a large high pressure system, bringing chilly mornings but pleasant afternoons! smile

Next week (September 7th-13th 2014) is still a go-ahead, not too sure what ACCESS is showing now, but the synoptic charts still reveal a major storm system that's on a collision course with Victoria! A warm northerly airflow will build up from Monday onwards (sending maximum temperatures up towards 25C around Mildura), ahead of a deep low pressure system with a series of intense cold fronts and an associated trough. I expect conditions will be quite blustery commencing Monday! Showers and possible thunderstorms from Tuesday onwards, and the possibility of good rainfall totals, mainly along the Great Dividing Range and up in Northeast Victoria, which may see falls of 50-100mm at this stage! I expect a decent cold outbreak from about mid-week onwards, with more alpine snow! One to watch guys! smile

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#1275442 - 04/09/2014 18:35 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5472
Thanks Petros smile

NAFES and CFS has been suggesting a cold signal across a large part of the continent for the Week 2 period for some days now... although hard to tell how much of an effect it might have on VIC. Here's the NAEFS output from a couple of days ago for that period:


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#1276797 - 18/09/2014 11:24 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1241
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
looking like a front is on the cards for next thursday, still ages out, especially for GFS. the city may miss out on the exciting due to timing, this could fix itself though.
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1276808 - 18/09/2014 12:25 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yes I see it too Dawoodman! Still too early to know with 100% certain but in coming days the picture should start to reveal itself more, especially on ACCESS, but the Weatherzone synoptic charts are looking promising at this stage! smile

The heat that's forecast to build across Western Australia will get pushed east ahead of the anticipated storm; Victoria's first 30C+ days for the season may happen around this time next week up in the Mallee region (around Mildura) as winds swing northerly, with 25C likely for Melbourne next Wednesday (should be great for anyone heading to the 2014 Royal Melbourne Show)! It'll be interesting to see whether or not cold air can get drawn into the low from the south or whether it'll be a cut-off/tropical dip-style system. smile

Hope it brings more good rain and more good thunderstorms! smile

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#1276869 - 18/09/2014 21:03 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
... and still out there after todays model runs, now in CMC's sight:


..... will the low pressure system get too "ripe" and die on Vic's doorstep??

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