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#1284842 - 19/11/2014 16:38 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10142
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
28 and sunny out here.

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#1284847 - 19/11/2014 16:45 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5089
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
21c and mostly cloudy with these hideous south easterly winds!!
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YTD - 875.9mm
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#1284855 - 19/11/2014 16:56 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4444
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Observatory Hill and coastal stations seem not to be able to get past 22-23 at this time of year when there's no resistance to the sea breeze, in spite of forecasts of 25-26. There's probably a 'ceiling' equal to inshore Ocean temperature plus 3 or 4 degrees at exposed sites. A sunny day with winds in the SE quarter (like yesterday) is warmer at OH but Sydney Airport is cool.

I see that tomorrow has been 'downgraded' from 30 to 27 for Sydney in the latest forecast. Again, it might struggle to reach even that far, given the weak Northerly pattern and the sea breeze likely to be up and ruinning from shortly after sunrise on the beach and reaching OH by 10:00 - 10:30.

It was a pleasant day here today, with a fairly cloudy morning clearing to a sunny, breezy afternoon. Temperatures were stuck at about 19 all night and about 22 all day.

It looks like a hot few days coming up, after which, by my interpretation of the models on this site, an Easterly pattern sets in, probably with a bit of rain and hopefully storms. It is starting to look a bit dry around here, with only 11 mm of rain at Observatory Hill since October 16 (following a dump of 70mm in a few hours on October 15).

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#1284884 - 19/11/2014 17:55 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1783
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Well we never got that 70mms mentioned above. so it is dry here.
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#1284887 - 19/11/2014 18:18 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7004
On the topic of dryness, we have only had 8.4mm which is ridiculous for November.

Yeah Steve I noticed that downgrading. Also, interestingly, Wollongong is going for a top of 29C tomorrow, which is 2C warmer than Sydney's fcast.

Also the absurd 38C for Friday, got changed to an acceptable and logical 30C for W'gong now. I still reckon it will fall short of 30C. Lol we'll probs be lucky to hit 25-26C on the coast tbh.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1284982 - 19/11/2014 22:08 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1203
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Frightening forecast for the next few days, starting tomorrow onwards with 37C, after what was a very pleasant day today, 26C only.
Thank God I will not be at work at Singleton on Sunday - where peak there is 43C forecast and hottest spot in the Hunter.(only have to put up with 42C in Maitland).
November 2009 record may get a challenge, will WAS.


Edited by DerekHV (19/11/2014 22:10)

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#1284991 - 19/11/2014 23:59 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8597
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Appears that the sea-breeze/sea-gale will be in full force tomorrow (Norah head still has a 30km/h NE'ly blowing now). Also don't understand how Sundays forecast of 34-41C across Syd will work out with a NE/SE'ly forecast. Suppose stranger things have happened

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#1285004 - 20/11/2014 07:13 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7004
Yeah it definitely will be in force, especially because it will be a "re-enforced seabreeze". As there will be winds will be NW at 850mb, then swinging to the north at 950mb, then NE at sea level. So in saying this I would expect the sea gale to get up to a pretty strong 20-25 knots (37-46km/h), maybe even in excess of 30kn (56km/h) along the south coast.
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#1285029 - 20/11/2014 09:52 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10142
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Sunny and low 30's out here again today. The next 4 or 5 days are not going to be my favourite days, ending up around high 30's by Sunday. However it's that time of year so away we go. smile

Some of the models thinking we may get some decent stormage Sunday/Monday, that would be nice if it happens. smile

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#1285035 - 20/11/2014 10:08 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7004
Very warm here too. Phone thermometer (which can be surprisingly accurate) is saying 27C here atm and very humid and sticky. Nearby Airport sitting on 26C. Going to be a stinker today. smile At least DaveM gets to have dry heat out in Batho. smile But I guess when you live in a cooler climate, those temps occurring for days would be a bit of a shock to the system. smile
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#1285046 - 20/11/2014 11:09 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10142
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yep however we "generally" get cooler nights, so it's better here than a lot of other places. smile A nasty hot night for us is 15 or 20 degrees, you'd take that any time in summer down there. smile

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#1285054 - 20/11/2014 11:32 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2045
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Anything below 20 means the doona is required for me. Wifey is even less tolerant of the cooler nights.

I wonder if Obs Hill has seen its max for today at 26.5. It juuust falls over the line for the forecast of 27 if you round it off to the nearest degree. At any rate that site is out early (hit wicket). We'll see which site gets top score today (in the basin).

I saw Terrey Hills's forecast max today is 34. The huge Lego breeze block squares in MetEye suggest this. Possible when the gradient flow is off shore but I would have thought that the sea breeze would be more in play as Sea-Mist already mentioned.

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#1285055 - 20/11/2014 11:45 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4444
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Just a minor piece of trivia - OH got a bonus addition of 1.9 degrees to yesterday's maximum.

I don't know whether the BOM has KPIs or similar where forecasters get a good mark for getting the forecast right and demerits for being out. If so, then whoever forecast 25 yesterday gets a 'met KPI', even though the temperature did not rise above 23 during yesterday.

(One thing I like about retirement - no more giving or receiving staff appraisals).

I would expect that the 26.5 at OH earlier this morning is either today's maximum or not too far short - it might drift up another degree or so but the seabreeze is here to stay for today. So the forecaster probably gets another gold star today.

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#1285078 - 20/11/2014 13:55 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: kizz]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5089
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: kizz
Anything below 20 means the doona is required for me. Wifey is even less tolerant of the cooler nights.


Im usually anything under 15c before the doona is even thought about, but 20c i'd be in a lather of sweat!!

Nice warm humid day here, even the sea breeze is quiet so far, no gust over 15kmph as yet. Nearly 29c, Dewpoint 22.9c, Humidity 53%
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 44.4mm
YTD - 875.9mm
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#1285082 - 20/11/2014 14:25 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10142
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yep, 20 degrees is sheet only for us. In days of yore she would have a blankie at that temp, however she has reached the age where the internal furnaces have been turned up a notch. smile

Now at least we are more evenly balanced in our temp acceptance. smile

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#1285090 - 20/11/2014 15:19 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1783
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
36 DEG here and rising,a bit of high cloud and patchy cumulus around building up a little to the west,but nothing like a storm tower.light,to moderate, hot NWer blowing,
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Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1285098 - 20/11/2014 16:06 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Steve777]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3209
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Steve777
I don't know whether the BOM has KPIs or similar where forecasters get a good mark for getting the forecast right and demerits for being out..


There is a UK based gambling site where you can bet on the maximum temperature for the day. Lost my excitement when it has to 0.1C within the station outcome.
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http://ozthunder.com

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#1285111 - 20/11/2014 17:03 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Steve777]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2045
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Just a minor piece of trivia - OH got a bonus addition of 1.9 degrees to yesterday's maximum.


Might happen again tomorrow.
The caveat being the early cloud may retard both the sun's heating AND the mixing down of the hot NW air flow to ground level before 9am.
That's assuming the forecast of no sea breeze and early cloud does indeed pan out.

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#1285115 - 20/11/2014 17:24 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: kizz]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7004
Originally Posted By: kizz

I saw Terrey Hills's forecast max today is 34. The huge Lego breeze block squares in MetEye suggest this. Possible when the gradient flow is off shore but I would have thought that the sea breeze would be more in play as Sea-Mist already mentioned.


Yeah it's surprising that the seabreeze wasn't really in play today. I just got back from Kiama and even there, there wasn't much of an SB, just an average summer seabreeze.

And here there was hardly a seabreeze and the temp got to about 30C, which is surprising considering Albion Park hit 27C. And now the wind is almost non-existent and as a result it's so hot and sticky.

The reason for lack of decent seabreeze could be because of the looming high cloud all day, which would have limited solar heating. Maybe not much but it was probably enough just to weaken the seabreeze.

And Dave you would actually be surprised about down here. We actually do get a few nights around or below 15C here in summer and we rarely get above 20C at night, usually just under at say 18 or 19C.

And I get uncomfortable when it gets over about 15-16C at night. Looks like it will be hard sleeping tonight...
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1285172 - 21/11/2014 04:54 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
perrywinkle Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2006
Posts: 453
Loc: Warrawee Valley
Woken by a howling gale here at 4:20am, it was pretty intense... and changed directions, then it was gone. A little 'front/edge structure' on the radar but no observations recorded to even suggest the strong winds we just had.

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