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#1285179 - 21/11/2014 08:16 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms from 18th to 24th November 2014 [Re: pkgjmg]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
Here's what the latest 3 runs of the new GFS version thinks in terms of formation areas today:

https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5609/15834414951_666cce86c4_o.png


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#1285180 - 21/11/2014 08:18 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms from 18th to 24th November 2014 [Re: pkgjmg]
Storm within Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/11/2013
Posts: 351
Loc: Morayfield
Brilliant Ken!
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#1285181 - 21/11/2014 08:26 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms from 18th to 24th November 2014 [Re: pkgjmg]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Damn hot & muggy, storm day for sure. Great map Ken.
Pkgjmg, sharknado, should have been burnt straight away, terrible, prefer gustnado or the big one.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (21/11/2014 08:27)

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#1285182 - 21/11/2014 08:29 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms from 18th to 24th November 2014 [Re: pkgjmg]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
Thanks... shear and steering winds aren't the best today though... nowhere near as good as Wed in terms of setup.

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#1285183 - 21/11/2014 08:31 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms from 18th to 24th November 2014 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2872
Loc: Mt Warren Park
agree mad elf, and to think they made sharknado #2!

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Damn hot & muggy, storm day for sure. Great map Ken.
Pkgjmg, sharknado, should have been burnt straight away, terrible, prefer gustnado or the big one.
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#1285184 - 21/11/2014 08:36 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms from 18th to 24th November 2014 [Re: pkgjmg]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2928
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
I think it's going to fire early around lunchtime. As it looks like cap will be overcome quite easily. It's not the strongest shear but there is some turn there and abit overcast in some places.

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#1285186 - 21/11/2014 08:40 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms from 18th to 24th November 2014 [Re: pkgjmg]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
As with all tornadoes or gustnados, if they suck up fish from waterways, it can rain fish.

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#1285187 - 21/11/2014 08:41 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms from 18th to 24th November 2014 [Re: pkgjmg]
retired weather man Offline
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Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4328
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 0.6mm.
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#1285188 - 21/11/2014 08:44 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms from 18th to 24th November 2014 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
pkgjmg Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2872
Loc: Mt Warren Park
absolutely mad elf!

my own mum and her brother and sister seen this happen in Biloela, Central Queensland when they were kids - their uncles and father who were in the pub didn't believe them so they said here's a bucket fill it with as many fish as you can come back and we'll give you some money - so they raced outside and came back with a bucket full of fish - leaving everyone in the pub gobsmacked! lol

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
As with all tornadoes or gustnados, if they suck up fish from waterways, it can rain fish.
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#1285191 - 21/11/2014 08:59 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms from 18th to 24th November 2014 [Re: pkgjmg]
Macca-wx Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2001
Posts: 1974
Loc: Wavell Heights, QLD
When you fall off a horse, they tell you that you should get right back on...

So I'm heading out again today (much to the other half's displeasure). As Ken has noted, winds in the mid-upper levels aren't awesome but should be enough for some short(ish) duration organized storms.

Storms should develop along the ranges of far northern NSW and into southern QLD by early afternoon with any strong storms moving north or maybe even NNW. I'm going to playgroup with the kids this morning (til 11:15am) then will probably head to Boonah, check some data and head over the range to Warwick/Killarney.

Macca

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#1285192 - 21/11/2014 09:06 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms from 18th to 24th November 2014 [Re: pkgjmg]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2928
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Lol I think we'd all be out there if it wasn't for the other half... Good luck Macca.

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#1285194 - 21/11/2014 09:16 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms from 18th to 24th November 2014 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
justme Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 197
Loc: Pacific Haven QLD
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
As with all tornadoes or gustnados, if they suck up fish from waterways, it can rain fish.


Lived in Atkinson dam for 20 years(reckon dam was empty for at least half that time), seen little fish in the paddock from a storm can have some beauty's up there

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#1285195 - 21/11/2014 09:31 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms from 18th to 24th November 2014 [Re: pkgjmg]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thanks for the raining fish experiences, love to see someones face & reaction if hit on the head by some.
Lets stay on topic, warming up nicely Acacia Ridge.

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#1285197 - 21/11/2014 10:04 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms from 18th to 24th November 2014 [Re: pkgjmg]
Mezo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/12/2011
Posts: 719
Loc: Under the Meso (or Springfield...
Nice work, macca. I too had a pretty average day Wednesday (made silly decisions, chose wrong roads etc.) and didn't quite come away with what I wanted. Learned a few things though and will put them in to practice today. The only way you see anything exciting is to keep getting out there when you can and giving yourself a chance.

Also like the boonah/Warwick area. Just gotta be careful not to get stuck on the range at the wrong time.
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#1285200 - 21/11/2014 10:09 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms from 18th to 24th November 2014 [Re: pkgjmg]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
I've always believed that busts actually provide a golden opportunity in that they force you to review what happened and learn from past mistakes... then apply these to future similar setups. In contrast, successes make it all too easy to take a prediction for granted and not bother to review why it came off.

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#1285201 - 21/11/2014 10:14 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms from 18th to 24th November 2014 [Re: pkgjmg]
Macca-wx Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2001
Posts: 1974
Loc: Wavell Heights, QLD
Thanks Mezo/Ken - bit of support for a fellow chaser who busted is good. Agree totally Ken that you have to learn from a bust - otherwise, not only is there nothing to take away from the day, you'll just keep making the same mistakes.

Mezo - keep an eye out for "Little Black" - Hyundai Elantra. That's me.

Steering winds have a little more W to them than SW which might push storms more NE or NNE than initially thought (which does bring in the possibility of storms moving off the ranges to the east).

EDIT: BoM TAF for Archerfield has just been updated to include possible storms from 05z (3pm) to 12z (10pm). Its the only TAF in the SE Coast area apart from up on the ranges that has storms in its forecast so far but is probably indicative of more eastward movement of storms. Also worth noting that a forecast such as this could as much be thundery rain as it could be storms.

Macca


Edited by Macca-wx (21/11/2014 10:20)

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#1285202 - 21/11/2014 10:15 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms from 18th to 24th November 2014 [Re: pkgjmg]
justme Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 197
Loc: Pacific Haven QLD
Does anyone have a copy of the soundings for that storm day, and do we have a local sounding for Hervey Bay or is Brisbane the nearest

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#1285205 - 21/11/2014 10:36 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms from 18th to 24th November 2014 [Re: pkgjmg]
!SCHUMMY! Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/04/2008
Posts: 2915
Loc: Jimboomba, SEQ
I'm interested to see how today pans out, 2100km since Tuesday chasing all the way up into Capricornia districts and then the long-ish drive back south to be in position for today.

I had to same problem as you Macca, all the low cloud made it most difficult for me as you couldn't visually follow the storm and had to rely solely on radar (which I hate doing!). Still great getting out there while I can though.
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#1285215 - 21/11/2014 12:36 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms from 18th to 24th November 2014 [Re: pkgjmg]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10203
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
A couple of storms starting to form here on the MNC at the moment. Quite a humid day, with this following an uncomfortable night's sleep.
Just heard the first distant rumbles of thunder from the storm near Kempsey.


Edited by Seabreeze (21/11/2014 12:37)
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#1285220 - 21/11/2014 13:17 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms from 18th to 24th November 2014 [Re: pkgjmg]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2928
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Quite a nice contrail from a passenger jet at the moment. Going in a SW direction.

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