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#1285734 - 23/11/2014 16:45 SE QLD/NE NSW Thunderstorms & Showers (including Brisbane supercell on 27/11) 25/11/14 - 28/11/14
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3148
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Currently we could be in for another period of interesting weather from as early as Tuesday. Hopefully this even can deliver bit more in the rain department for those in the need. Anyway looks a very interesting time ahead please drop in your thoughts.

Next 8 days from WATL:



Edited by Seabreeze (28/11/2014 18:16)
Edit Reason: added Brisbane supercell to title as it was a very significant storm

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#1285881 - 24/11/2014 11:18 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Thunderstorms & Showers (including Brisbane supercell on 27/11) 25/11/14 - 28/11/14 [Re: Steve O]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4580
Loc: Wynnum
Up until 2 days ago Meteye said we locally would get up to 50mm, now this is down to 10mm.
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#1285887 - 24/11/2014 11:52 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Thunderstorms & Showers (including Brisbane supercell on 27/11) 25/11/14 - 28/11/14 [Re: Steve O]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1463
Loc: Kingaroy
I noticed some forecasters saying the falls around Wed/Thurs will be similar to those last week (not the areas, but the general action of storms)
If that is true I guess what I learnt last week is that the steering flow will influence greatly who gets what.
So can someone wise point me in the right direction of info regarding this please or just let me be lazy & tell me how things will go wind-wise.
wink
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Sherlock Holmes 28 March 13:08

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#1285897 - 24/11/2014 12:45 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Thunderstorms & Showers (including Brisbane supercell on 27/11) 25/11/14 - 28/11/14 [Re: Steve O]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3358
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Looking good, it will get downgraded but should get little bit of something rather than nothing.

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#1285898 - 24/11/2014 13:00 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Thunderstorms & Showers (including Brisbane supercell on 27/11) 25/11/14 - 28/11/14 [Re: Steve O]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 569
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
If memory serves, a couple days back there was to be a small Low about, only one or two runs & has since dissapeared off the synoptics ? bugga.
Bcsh has some likely stormage mostly Wed/Thu - then Sun/Mon, tho Sun/Mon are a bit aways to stay firm - tho not saying it will fall flat - might possibly increase intensity - fingers crossed ?
Always looking on with interest cool
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#1285904 - 24/11/2014 13:22 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Thunderstorms & Showers (including Brisbane supercell on 27/11) 25/11/14 - 28/11/14 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3148
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Generaly the steering flow is from 700Mb - 500mb I think depending on how tall the clouds get? For wednesday the steering winds look slow at about 10-15knts from the west.
Here's the example.

10 knts WSW'ly at 700mb depending on where cells are.

15 knts WNW'ly at 500mb ""









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#1285908 - 24/11/2014 13:40 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Thunderstorms & Showers (including Brisbane supercell on 27/11) 25/11/14 - 28/11/14 [Re: Steve O]
Golden State Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 202
Loc: Buderim
bring it !
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#1285951 - 24/11/2014 16:06 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Thunderstorms & Showers (including Brisbane supercell on 27/11) 25/11/14 - 28/11/14 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7017
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Jeez look at the squall line moving through Victoria / SE NSW this afternoon, I wish we could manage something like that here in QLD as opposed to a cluttered mess like we usually get.

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#1285964 - 24/11/2014 16:49 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Thunderstorms & Showers (including Brisbane supercell on 27/11) 25/11/14 - 28/11/14 [Re: Steve O]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1463
Loc: Kingaroy
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Generaly the steering flow is from 700Mb - 500mb I think depending on how tall the clouds get? For wednesday the steering winds look slow at about 10-15knts from the west.
Here's the example.

10 knts WSW'ly at 700mb depending on where cells are.

15 knts WNW'ly at 500mb ""

Thanks for that Steve.
I think the steering flow was around 10 knts the other day when things moved too slow for anything decent, so this just says it's only marginally 'better' on Wed.

Guess we wait & watch & see what Nature cooks up for us.
smile
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#1285997 - 24/11/2014 19:14 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Thunderstorms & Showers (including Brisbane supercell on 27/11) 25/11/14 - 28/11/14 [Re: Steve O]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3358
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
BOM is getting a tad optimistic, four straight days of possible storms for the Lockyer area. WATL looks good at @25-50mm. Interesting!

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#1286001 - 24/11/2014 19:56 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Thunderstorms & Showers (including Brisbane supercell on 27/11) 25/11/14 - 28/11/14 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3148
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea I'm starting to get the impression that it will be thundery rain kind of thing on wednesday. The profile looks very saturated not your typical storm set up?


Edited by Steve O (24/11/2014 19:58)

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#1286006 - 24/11/2014 20:22 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Thunderstorms & Showers (including Brisbane supercell on 27/11) 25/11/14 - 28/11/14 [Re: Steve O]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3358
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Them steering winds are not flash but direction looks great, any stormy rain is very welcome.

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#1286011 - 24/11/2014 20:33 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Thunderstorms & Showers (including Brisbane supercell on 27/11) 25/11/14 - 28/11/14 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3148
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
yea Mad Elf I'm hoping for the best, and I know there will be good action somewhere while I'm stuck in a shed.

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#1286020 - 24/11/2014 21:39 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Thunderstorms & Showers (including Brisbane supercell on 27/11) 25/11/14 - 28/11/14 [Re: Steve O]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3358
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
You are not lonely there, spent the last 3 mths in an uninsulated steel shed in daytime, & scorn is sent to whoever tries to rob me of aircon at night. Let it rain, lots.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (24/11/2014 21:41)

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#1286029 - 24/11/2014 22:17 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Thunderstorms & Showers (including Brisbane supercell on 27/11) 25/11/14 - 28/11/14 [Re: Steve O]
Lani Offline
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Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1142
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Meanwhile our forecast went from yay to nothing as usual. frown 2 days ago we had 1-5, 10-20 & 5-10 now lucky to see 1mm all up.
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#1286031 - 24/11/2014 22:28 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Thunderstorms & Showers (including Brisbane supercell on 27/11) 25/11/14 - 28/11/14 [Re: Steve O]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3358
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Maybe a raindance or some kind of enticement to Zeus. Wine or grape consumed in his name might work.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (24/11/2014 22:29)

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#1286033 - 24/11/2014 22:40 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Thunderstorms & Showers (including Brisbane supercell on 27/11) 25/11/14 - 28/11/14 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2096
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Latest run of Access-R has suddenly become very interested in bringing a rain band up from NSW during the day, peaking in SEQ in the evening, before petering out in WBB at night.

Interestingly, it seems to be associated with the southerly change moving up the coast. Access-R has the wind strength much stronger than GFS at 850 and what looks like a slight low pressure area over Brisbane ahead of the southerly change during the afternoon?

GFS sounding for tomorrow afternoon showing a lot more instability in the atmosphere when you adjust the temperature to the forecast maximum. Some nice dry slots, but moisture in the lower levels seems problematic. Perhaps everything depends on the southerly change and Access-R reckons it will come through with a blast?

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#1286049 - 25/11/2014 08:28 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Thunderstorms & Showers (including Brisbane supercell on 27/11) 25/11/14 - 28/11/14 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2096
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I really think this evening could surprise people. Access-R holding its guns with a decent storm moving up with the southerly change right over Brisbane and around 14-30 mm at least.

GFS has issues with moisture and wind strength in the mid-levels still, but Access-R still has that small low and strong 850 winds. If you added that to the GFS sounding, it makes it look pretty decent.


Edited by Nature's Fury (25/11/2014 08:31)

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#1286050 - 25/11/2014 08:40 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Thunderstorms & Showers (including Brisbane supercell on 27/11) 25/11/14 - 28/11/14 [Re: Steve O]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3358
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Just had a look NF, it does look very tasty and move just that little bit further north for our benefit.

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#1286067 - 25/11/2014 10:20 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Thunderstorms & Showers (including Brisbane supercell on 27/11) 25/11/14 - 28/11/14 [Re: Steve O]
Golden State Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 202
Loc: Buderim
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