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#1286737 - 29/11/2014 20:57 SEQLD / NENSW - Thunderstorms / Rain Areas, extended period of instability - December 1st to December 10th 2014
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10415
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Trough activity should bring a prolonged period of instability to NENSW and SEQLD during the first week of December. NENSW and inland SEQLD look like having the better chance of storms over the first couple of days of this event. Coastal SEQLD's chances should progressively increase through the week.
There is a chance the dates of the thread may need to be extended beyond the 6th, but it should become more clear over the next couple of days.

If there are anymore contributions about the Brisbane supercell on the 27th (or other storms over recent days), feel free to continue posting about it in the previous event thread: http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...rms#Post1286730


Edited by Seabreeze (09/12/2014 14:25)
Edit Reason: subtracted a day from this thread (the 11th) and added it to the new thread
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South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
September 2018 Rainfall: 35.2mm (September Avg. 55.9mm) // September 2018 Raindays: 9 (September Avg. 8.3 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1036.2mm (Jan-Sep Avg. 1150.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 91 (Jan-Sep Avg. 101.8 raindays)

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#1286766 - 30/11/2014 07:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - Thunderstorms / Rain Areas, extended period of instability - December 1st to December 10th 2014 [Re: Seabreeze]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1643
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
At the moment, Friday is looking "interesting". I think after getting stranded by the trains twice now, I will work from home that day!
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Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

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#1286769 - 30/11/2014 08:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - Thunderstorms / Rain Areas, extended period of instability - December 1st to December 10th 2014 [Re: Seabreeze]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5228
Loc: Diamond Valley
Interesting times ahead indeed. Great timing for our street Christmas party, eh Blowin'?
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#1286802 - 30/11/2014 11:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - Thunderstorms / Rain Areas, extended period of instability - December 1st to December 10th 2014 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1157
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
So can I ask, is the BSCH predicting the upcoming rain from thunderstorm outbreaks or a decent rain event? I don't see any significant lows that make for good rain and I'm wary of getting rain from thunderstorms, they're so patchy at the best of times.


Edited by Lani (30/11/2014 11:26)
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Jimbour rain: 2018-160, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- .5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1286818 - 30/11/2014 13:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - Thunderstorms / Rain Areas, extended period of instability - December 1st to December 10th 2014 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mattqldstorms Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/09/2010
Posts: 2193
Loc: Ipswich- Yamanto Queensland
While it's a long way off next weekend is looking a bit worrying.

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#1286820 - 30/11/2014 13:28 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - Thunderstorms / Rain Areas, extended period of instability - December 1st to December 10th 2014 [Re: Lani]
!SCHUMMY! Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/04/2008
Posts: 2915
Loc: Jimboomba, SEQ
Originally Posted By: Lani
So can I ask, is the BSCH predicting the upcoming rain from thunderstorm outbreaks or a decent rain event? I don't see any significant lows that make for good rain and I'm wary of getting rain from thunderstorms, they're so patchy at the best of times.


Yeah the rain is forecast to come from thunderstorms but we know that storms can turn into thundery rain into the evening if the conditions are right.

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#1286821 - 30/11/2014 13:32 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - Thunderstorms / Rain Areas, extended period of instability - December 1st to December 10th 2014 [Re: Seabreeze]
Storm within Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/11/2013
Posts: 351
Loc: Morayfield
I posted this link in the day to day weather thread. I agree this weekend is looking really good for seq. Let's just hope it maintains!Bsch storm probabilities map 4pm December 6
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Don't knock the weather. If it didn't change once in awhile, 9 out of 10 people would have nothing to start a conversation with.

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#1286835 - 30/11/2014 13:52 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - Thunderstorms / Rain Areas, extended period of instability - December 1st to December 10th 2014 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1021
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes, early days, but the Granite Belt and Southern Downs is slated for up to 125mm of rain now during the next 8 days. I certainly know that will chop and change, but how wonderful would that be if we even receive half of what is projected right now? No significant rain at my place for 94 days. More rain elsewhere, but still very dry out here. It would be very welcome indeed if this played out as is currently projected. Thunderstorms would be very nice, but I am afraid they will go right around our area again as they most always do. Nice thundery rain would be better for us out here. Not to mention it would probably soak into this dry ground better.
Next weekend is also looking very good instability wise. Could see several rounds of severe storms in SEQ if things pan out.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1286837 - 30/11/2014 13:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - Thunderstorms / Rain Areas, extended period of instability - December 1st to December 10th 2014 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1839
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Sunday is even looking more severe than Saturday.The week is looking up hope there is not to much damage.
http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/stormcast.html?ops=gfs:2014112918:2014120706:qld:ts:null:0#sc
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Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
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#1286854 - 30/11/2014 15:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - Thunderstorms / Rain Areas, extended period of instability - December 1st to December 10th 2014 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3194
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Nice, I don't want to get too excited but for the past few runs of GFS and GSM even EC and Access are on board. With consecutive dayyss of interesting weather!!


Edited by Steve O (30/11/2014 15:03)

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#1286857 - 30/11/2014 15:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - Thunderstorms / Rain Areas, extended period of instability - December 1st to December 10th 2014 [Re: Steve O]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2116
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
The conditions from Friday to Sunday gets progressively more severe each day. High instability, some turning in the lower winds, strong shear, cloud tops could be quite high, upper trough lingering?

There are some issues though. The soundings look fairly saturated, cloud cover, constant rain and storms could likely inhibit development of strong storms/supercells.

Very heavy rainfall and flash flooding would seem to be the main risk with storms, but some clear skies during the day could allow some real ripper storms. All models in agreement for storms and rain, EC and GFS going for decent totals.


Edited by Nature's Fury (30/11/2014 15:23)

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#1286860 - 30/11/2014 15:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - Thunderstorms / Rain Areas, extended period of instability - December 1st to December 10th 2014 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3194
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea with so much activity and even through the night time hours. You'd think there would easily be patchy morning cloud cover at times keeping surface temps down during the day. Though a couple of hours heat before 4pm is all the difference.

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#1286876 - 30/11/2014 16:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - Thunderstorms / Rain Areas, extended period of instability - December 1st to December 10th 2014 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3194
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Was wondering if there was a southerly change and Saturday looks interesting to me so here's a little investigation. Subject to change over a week...


Bit clearer on the surface winds chart now they've added arrows.. Seeing abit of convergence where the Se'lys meet the N to Nw'lys near the northern mid coast of NSW. Perhaps an ECL might develope somewhere in that area?




also the same time from GFS surface winds.


With the mid/upper trough nicely positioned.












Edited by Steve O (30/11/2014 16:33)

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#1286910 - 30/11/2014 18:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - Thunderstorms / Rain Areas, extended period of instability - December 1st to December 10th 2014 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 926
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Nice!

It's funny how the "seasons" often change with a bang and a dry "spring" is broken into wet "summer" with a supercell/ Oswald / ecl etc. (yes Oswald was in January but it was bone dry until then). Then somehow the fundamentals seem to change and it just starts raining... Similar thing often happens at the start of winter...big cold front/ rain then it goes cool and dry for months (generally-!!!)

I'd love to hear thoughts on if it's Is it a strong system that overcomes the dry and provides soil moisture/ evaporation for the following weaker systems to utilise (and vice versa) or is it a sudden atmospheric transition?

Yeah IW the neighborhood loves drinking by a roaring Hellhole creek! Although if it's thunderstorm driven we'll get zip!!!

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#1286933 - 30/11/2014 21:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - Thunderstorms / Rain Areas, extended period of instability - December 1st to December 10th 2014 [Re: Blowin']
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2116
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I know it will probably change and the script is outdated, but check out the glorious 110% potential of supercells next Monday:

http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/stormcast.html?ops=gfs:2014113006:2014120806:bne:scprob:null:0#sc

And wow 4000+ cape, -10 LIs and ripper shear for next Monday. Oh the beauty!


Edited by Nature's Fury (30/11/2014 21:47)

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#1286938 - 30/11/2014 22:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - Thunderstorms / Rain Areas, extended period of instability - December 1st to December 10th 2014 [Re: Seabreeze]
Macca-wx Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2001
Posts: 1974
Loc: Wavell Heights, QLD
LOL. If that comes off, last Thursday's storm will look like chicken feed. House-sized hail on the cards with figures like those.

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#1286941 - 30/11/2014 22:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - Thunderstorms / Rain Areas, extended period of instability - December 1st to December 10th 2014 [Re: Macca-wx]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2116
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Macca-wx
LOL. If that comes off, last Thursday's storm will look like chicken feed. House-sized hail on the cards with figures like those.


Even a little cap to stop things firing up too early. I'd say it will definitely change before then, but GFS is consistently ramping up severity from Friday-Monday for a couple of days now.

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#1286944 - 30/11/2014 22:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - Thunderstorms / Rain Areas, extended period of instability - December 1st to December 10th 2014 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ben Quinn (BSCH) Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2987
Loc: Caboolture, ~45km north of Bri...
Yeah, you have to take it for what it is (a chart at the end of the model run that will almost certainly change) but one thing to note about that forecast is that for every profile that I've looked at around SE QLD is that the low level moisture is DEEP and those CAPE figures are very much real. I mean real as in a great many of our high to extreme CAPE situations in SE QLD are based on shallow sea breeze moisture or relatively deep moisture that sites below a *monster* CAP in near coastal areas which will rarely if ever be overcome (sometimes storms do convect above the CAP in these situations but in 1/10th of the CAPE). But in forecasts like that, ignoring GFS's biases just for a moment so as to be able to bath in the glory of that forecast, forecasts like that really are high end severe storm days for SE QLD and if ever realised almost always result in news headlines for days on end and insurance payouts that stand out in the records. Whether it actually eventuates is another thing!

I'm actually in central QLD at the moment - Emerald. I have worked almost 100 hours of the last 120 hours - do the math on that and work out how wide open my eyes are. I have about 3 hours of photography to do a couple of hundred km's SE of Emerald sometime tomorrow but other than that the day is my oyster... and looking at the possibility of some CAPE west of Emerald tomorrow afternoon I think I'll get an early start, get the work stuff over and done with and hit the road westwards looking for some stormy skies.

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#1286969 - 01/12/2014 07:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - Thunderstorms / Rain Areas, extended period of instability - December 1st to December 10th 2014 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3423
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
WATL is going nuts after friday, 6" rain in four days over next weekend in SEQ. This is upgrading not downgrading, also widespread 4"inland, wow if this comes off. Must be widespread big thunderstorms or big rain event.
Dry spell about to be broken.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (01/12/2014 07:57)

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#1286989 - 01/12/2014 10:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - Thunderstorms / Rain Areas, extended period of instability - December 1st to December 10th 2014 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1021
Loc: Warwick, QLD
The 8 day rain forecast still shows over 100mm here on the Southern Downs. Stormwise however, it has been downgraded significantly after Thursday with most of the activity east of us. Even Monday shows next to nothing here at my location. I wish I could stop looking at these charts every 5 minutes! frown
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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