Page 12 of 13 < 1 2 ... 10 11 12 13 >
Topic Options
#1289118 - 07/12/2014 13:35 Re: Vic - arrival of a low system born in N WA: Th-Mon 4-8/12/14 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 830
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Thanks for the in site into the impact on fire risk guys, with that area of Victoria over the last few years suffering at least one major fire its an interesting topic. For me down here in the South West we never get such big totals in short periods so its interesting to see the different impacts.
_________________________
Located in South West Victoria
My PWS (in Portland, Vic) http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IVICTORI427

Top
#1289123 - 07/12/2014 13:43 Re: Vic - arrival of a low system born in N WA: Th-Mon 4-8/12/14 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6308
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Still under steady rain here, over the last 10 minutes slightly less intensive than during the 90 minute period of very heavy stuff. Plenty of water over roads locally, paddock run-off every where and farm stock dams all overflowing.

Went out to Bushy Park to look at the Freestone there, the runout from the hills hasn't arrived there yet, nor in the Avon at Boisdale. But it will in coming hours as SamBoz reported from a little further upstream.

Since its been mentioned a bit, the Royal Maffra Golf Club is a basket case at the moment - water everywhere, unfortunately including a washed out section of the newly planted 15th much to the coming displeasure of President Rick (who is likely to know Lindsay K and SamBoz?).

My brother reports 55mm fell in Sale from 1am this morning onwards.

I simply refuse to go to my gauge until it stops pouring as it is right now.

[edit] - I see that Traralgon is now up to 29mm since 9am!! - the rain has certainly started to involve the Latrobe Valley too, cant be good for the Traralgon Races today! frown


Edited by Petros (07/12/2014 13:50)

Top
#1289126 - 07/12/2014 13:47 Re: Vic - arrival of a low system born in N WA: Th-Mon 4-8/12/14 [Re: dlcat1]
ThunderBob Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 534
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
I think I'd agree with you dlcat. I'd only add that there are bushfires ... and there are bushfires and what we've had in this area the past two days will certainly lower substantially the potentiality for "explosive" situations. Even a week or 10 days of dry weather and under the right conditions fire could take hold in the bush but is much less likely to "explode". Of course we're only talking about the part of the State that's had these substantial falls of rain: 10-15mm this time of the year will make little if any difference to fire potential for more than a few days.

Top
#1289128 - 07/12/2014 13:49 Re: Vic - arrival of a low system born in N WA: Th-Mon 4-8/12/14 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 534
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Petros, your convective storms are starting up already - up on the Murray around Yarrawonga and north and east of Orbost. Up around Hotham too?

Top
#1289129 - 07/12/2014 13:52 Re: Vic - arrival of a low system born in N WA: Th-Mon 4-8/12/14 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6308
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yeah, we may be in for a chance in coming hours, Maffra is nearly clear of rain going by the Radar (just showing white over us) - but its actually still belting down!

[edit] - just tapered off to "light rain" with a freshening SW'ly.

Which brings me back to this Low!... according to BOM MSLP charts over past 24 hours, we have yet to achieve a "Cut Off" Low out of this event. With this SW'ly here now, could a small cut-off be starting to bomb right now in Bass Straight S of Bairnsdale???


Edited by Petros (07/12/2014 14:00)

Top
#1289139 - 07/12/2014 14:10 Re: Vic - arrival of a low system born in N WA: Th-Mon 4-8/12/14 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6308
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I wish Laurier William's MSLP hourly autocharts were working! My baro is in my office out in the shed. Gumboots territory. Guess where the gumboots are!

Top
#1289149 - 07/12/2014 14:25 Re: Vic - arrival of a low system born in N WA: Th-Mon 4-8/12/14 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
looks like upper low spinning south of Albury NSW

Top
#1289165 - 07/12/2014 14:57 Re: Vic - arrival of a low system born in N WA: Th-Mon 4-8/12/14 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6308
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Looks like a low level (surface meso) centre evident at Stockdale/Fernbank (between Stratford and Bairnsdale) at the moment!??

It all fits into the 120 kM Bairnsdale radar image at the moment. Would have posted a copy, but the BOM single image display option wont plot the weather station obs (which show the surface wind direction), clearly showing the cyclonic circulation thanks to the Oil Rig in Bass Straight to provide the full picture.

Anyone know how to post a single BOM radar that image includes the weather observations option?

Got the boots on know, off to the rain gauge - and yes its still steady light rain out here, unbroken since late last night! - with cold SW'ly, the Baro here is currently 1004 hPa - wont know if its rising or falling till another 1/2 hour. Now off to empty the rain gauge....

[edit] - we've had 77mm since 6pm yesterday and its still raining! That's 104mm in Maffra in 6 days (95mm of it in less than 2 days!).


Edited by Petros (07/12/2014 15:03)

Top
#1289172 - 07/12/2014 15:10 Re: Vic - arrival of a low system born in N WA: Th-Mon 4-8/12/14 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1372
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
The sky is still much lighter, the rain is misty reducing visibility to not much > 1km.

11mm since the gauge check round 11.45am this morning, (no rain indicated on the radar)

The light S/W just arrived.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 47mm to 0900 28th.

Top
#1289174 - 07/12/2014 15:12 Re: Vic - arrival of a low system born in N WA: Th-Mon 4-8/12/14 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6308
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Here's the current Bairnsdale radar image (showing it not raining here even though I just got soaked reading the rain gauge just now):

As I said, if anyone can work out how to get the BOM single image to include the obs - I'd like to know. Normally I'd be using Lauriers auto synoptic charts, but the feature is currently down.

Top
#1289191 - 07/12/2014 15:28 Re: Vic - arrival of a low system born in N WA: Th-Mon 4-8/12/14 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6308
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Same image above in the loop version, via "snagit":

Note the cyclonic wind flow centred around mid Gippy!

[edit] - damn! over the last 10 minutes or so, the eastern end stations have gone back southerly! Interesting all the same, because at >5-10 knts at most stations, the directions shouldn't be dithering as "variable" eh?


Edited by Petros (07/12/2014 15:32)

Top
#1289201 - 07/12/2014 15:45 Re: Vic - arrival of a low system born in N WA: Th-Mon 4-8/12/14 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 830
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Not much rain but cold wind down here for the past few days- as for December - its a week in and i am yet to have a day above average. At this rate October and November will be warmer than December
_________________________
Located in South West Victoria
My PWS (in Portland, Vic) http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IVICTORI427

Top
#1289256 - 07/12/2014 17:17 Re: Vic - arrival of a low system born in N WA: Th-Mon 4-8/12/14 [Re: logansi]
Hells kitchen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 284
Loc: SE Failbourne
Originally Posted By: logansi
Not much rain but cold wind down here for the past few days- as for December - its a week in and i am yet to have a day above average. At this rate October and November will be warmer than December


I hear ya! The forecast is nothing but a joke. high teens to low 20's all week bar one day. Just continuing the assembly line of insults that has been this December http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/melbourne.shtml

Continuing the theme from Friday, yesterday and today. Today only managed a ridiculous 17.9C in the CBD and colder elsewhere. Models also showing a cold outbreak around the 16th.

Meanwhile Sydney getting pelted by storms YET AGAIN. I am at a loss for words, even 4 letter ones mad sick

Then again, as the old saying goes, there is always someone worse off than you: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW7021.latest.shtml

Roll on January.


Edited by Hells kitchen (07/12/2014 17:21)
_________________________
death to summer southwesterlies!

2nd worst storm season on record. Fizzers as of Dec 2014: 30/11/14, 1/12/14, 3/12/14, 15/12/14, 29/12/14, 3/1/15 (worst fizzer on record), 8/1/15 (STW issued for light rain), 20/1/15

Thunderstorms since July: 3

Top
#1289266 - 07/12/2014 17:30 Re: Vic - arrival of a low system born in N WA: Th-Mon 4-8/12/14 [Re: Petros]
Hells kitchen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 284
Loc: SE Failbourne
On a related note, Sale has had only 11.1 hours of sun MTD!

This rain seems to be dying as it gets here. My bro in Traralgon had 34mm so far, only occasional light rain here today although there was steady rain over most of last night.


Edited by Hells kitchen (07/12/2014 17:32)
_________________________
death to summer southwesterlies!

2nd worst storm season on record. Fizzers as of Dec 2014: 30/11/14, 1/12/14, 3/12/14, 15/12/14, 29/12/14, 3/1/15 (worst fizzer on record), 8/1/15 (STW issued for light rain), 20/1/15

Thunderstorms since July: 3

Top
#1289269 - 07/12/2014 17:33 Re: Vic - arrival of a low system born in N WA: Th-Mon 4-8/12/14 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6308
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Still thick drizzle/mist and low distance visibility. Looks like heavy showers (near-storms) are looming in from the N at a couple of E Gippsland locations at the moment, may include ThunderBob's location.

My rain record for today is 77.25mm (the previous days have gone 17, 3.5, 4 and 1.5mm). My job and travel time means my daily weather readings are taken at 5:30-6pm.

So this event delivered a good old 4" for Maffra, and far more for locations closer to the foothills of Victoria's Eastern Ranges.

It will also see BOM's hydrologist's booking up the overtime today/tonight monitoring what is to come down the Latrobe, Thompson, McAllister, Avon, Mitchell and Tambo Rivers tonight/tomorrow. I'm sure there will be some minor flood warnings issued.

Also (licking their lips) will be the Southern Rural Water accountants and planners. ....With the prospect of charging out spill water entitlements as the Lake Glenmaggie weir keeper pulls the levers to manage a purge through Lake Glenmaggie, which if he does his job correctly, will see it "just nudge" back to 100% (was 88% this week) sometime in the next 2 weeks. Then when the spill entitlements (which will be ignored by the sodden farmers for 10 days I reckon) are over, my guess is that all irrigators in the MID will be lifted to 120 - 130% of their allocated "normal season" Water Right. Excellent economic news for Vic given the low $AUD and high international demand (and prices) for milk powder exports!!. Santa is going to be kind to the MID dairy farm kids this year I reckon.

Top
#1289275 - 07/12/2014 17:44 Re: Vic - arrival of a low system born in N WA: Th-Mon 4-8/12/14 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 534
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Nice summing up Petros.

I've been cut off internet most of this arvo and it keeps going off/on so ... try a post now.

Yes, Petros, nice looking activity heading (almost) my way ... may miss slightly to the east.

This weather has kept us all very entertained and interested. May not be able to post next few days. Have fun and thanks all for your interaction.

Top
#1289282 - 07/12/2014 18:14 Re: Vic - arrival of a low system born in N WA: Th-Mon 4-8/12/14 [Re: Gabby]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6308
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Gabby
I had a look Petros and I think I see what you mean. However it seems to be headed to Qld NSW border as well as Vic NSW border. That "dark coldish air pool" has a big spread. I think I'm looking at it correctly. First time Looking at water vapour sat pic. Very interesting


Qld/NSW border! - I'm not sure, but your observation may have been prophetic Gabby! (others please correct/educate us).

I say this because although Gippsland got its Low Pressure system/Easterly Rain Event, the SE of Aus never did achieve a closed (East Coast) Low from this event.

BUT the lowest pressure in E Aus, rather than being under an ECL associated with Vic's SE, ...is right where you thought the upper cool pool was headed!

Again anyone please correct this if its tripe, but here is the 5pm synoptic showing the lowest pressure, up way way north of where the "big action" over the past 36 hours (Gippsland with 100 - 200mm rain) has been!:


[edit] - the Baro at Maffra has been steady at 1004hPa for 3 hours now.


Edited by Petros (07/12/2014 18:23)

Top
#1289284 - 07/12/2014 18:17 Re: Vic - arrival of a low system born in N WA: Th-Mon 4-8/12/14 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6308
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Like the appearance of that "doughnut storm system" N of Birchip that ThunderBob identified late yesterday - for me, this has been a very NON TYPICAL wet easterly event for SE Aus.

I should also mention the unusual sequence of daily very severe storms that Sydney has experience 3 days (?) in a row now as well!

Top
#1289287 - 07/12/2014 18:25 Re: Vic - arrival of a low system born in N WA: Th-Mon 4-8/12/14 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1372
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Mt Wellington in clear view, blue sky to the north.

We ended up with 7.5mm to 3/12, 83mm & 11mm today, total 101.5mm.

The Valencia Creek & Avon River (low level Xing's at V/Ck) both came up and over the road in about an hour and a half this arvo.

Freestone was getting going nicely at the confluence with the Avon also.

How'd you end up at Sarsfield Bob.

Might let the wood heater go out tomorrow. Heater in December, pretty rare for sure.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 47mm to 0900 28th.

Top
#1289290 - 07/12/2014 18:37 Re: Vic - arrival of a low system born in N WA: Th-Mon 4-8/12/14 [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 534
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
We got 82mm in the 24 hrs to 9am,Samboz, 15 after that today and (I think) another 15 Friday (?). I don't keep records and my gauge overflowed last night and my figure for last 24hrs come from a neighbour. (Need to get a proper, decent sized gauge)

Yes, Petros, a really interesting event. Still like to have a meteorologist comment on all that stuff in the Northern Country yesterday arvo.

The storm has passed to the east of me through Lakes Entrance and is going out to sea.

Top
Page 12 of 13 < 1 2 ... 10 11 12 13 >


Who's Online
57 registered (Chris Stumer, Red Watch, petethemoskeet, slipperyfish, Fairdinkum, James Chambers, Wrasse42, rainiac, rainmore, cold@28, Majors Daughter, Brett Guy, Snapper22lb, Inclement Weather, Corretto, redbucket, dizzigirl1, aloahjay, Squeako_88, Pama, Aussea, Simmo FNQ, Steven, Snowy Hibbo, Purnong, Dan101, MoonLight, Mike Hauber, Ticktock, Amatuerish, whatscracken, WANDJINA G'vale, Sepo, iluvrain, Jettnewfoundland, Stazza_Brendan, StormQueen, Wave Rider, ThunderBob, justme, Timbuck, bber36, bundybear, james1977, Tel, Steve O, mysteriousbrad, whynot, Oriolus, Markus, Taylsy, Bello Weather, Reefer, Keethy, NQ_Dee, 2 invisible), 556 Guests and 5 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Boy from the Bush, DerekHV, JL, reffy, spinner
Forum Stats
29193 Members
32 Forums
23563 Topics
1446331 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image