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#1292613 - 19/12/2014 14:26 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17908
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Japan has declared an El Nino already Desieboy. The classic warm tongue along the equator and subsequent Enso 3.4 reading are well within Nino thresholds. BoM may be reluctant because there was a bounce back into neutral range for the SOI in November. Another of their criteria is increased cloudiness near the dateline which hasn't occurred and nether have the westerlies along the equator .Not with any consistency anyway.

However rainfall on the western side of the USA is inline with a Nino event.

Regardless, it is certainly in line with a Nino effect in Nth Eastern Australia.
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#1293242 - 23/12/2014 15:43 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2082
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Latest Enso wrap up is out..

BOM seem to be pointing that current conditions will continue for a little while longer.. That is warm neutral, with a possible change to weak El Nino... They do not seem to be looking at a return to la nina or anything like that..

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Quote:

Issued on 23 December 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

The tropical Pacific Ocean continues to border on El Niño thresholds, with rainfall patterns around the Pacific Ocean basin, and at times further afield, displaying El Niño-like patterns over recent months.

Indicators remain broadly consistent with borderline El Niño conditions. Sea surface temperatures have exceeded thresholds for a number of weeks, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has generally been negative for the past few months. Trade winds have been near-average along the equator, but weaker in the broader tropical belt. Together, these indicate some weak coupling of the atmosphere and ocean may be occuring.

Climate models expect little change over the next two to three months, with most predicting a persistence of the current warm sea surface temperatures. If current conditions do persist or strengthen into next year, 2014–15 is likely to be considered a weak El Niño. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Tracker status remains at ALERT.

Regardless of El Niño status, El Niño-like impacts are likely to continue, as shown by recent seasonal outlooks. For Australia, this means drier and warmer than average weather is likely in many areas.

Next update expected on 6 January 2014

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#1293618 - 26/12/2014 17:14 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1596
Loc: Kingaroy
2014-2015 will probably come in as a weak El Nino event, fingers crossed that it transitions to a La Nina event next year, it's been five years since the last one.

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#1293811 - 28/12/2014 01:23 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1689
5 Years?? Try 3 buddy we had back to back La Nina's 2010-11 and once again later 2011 into early part of 2012. That La Nina ended with a big ban widespread heavy rain/storms and flooding across large parts of south eastern Australia through Victoria and southern NSW in particular in late Feb and early March.


Edited by _Johnno_ (28/12/2014 01:25)
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#1293813 - 28/12/2014 01:37 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1689
Personally I can't see a La Nina or even a cool phase next year by Winter or Spring.. The sub surface is a lot different to how it was in December 2009.. A cold pool was already starting to show by then getting ready for the 2010 La Nina, not seeing it this time. A hell of a lot of work has to happen for a cool neutral to happen by mid next year let alone a La Nina.

At Least by October, November, December in 2009 there was a cold pool showing distinctively in the western sub surface but end of 2014 there hasn't been and if there has been (like November) it gets eroded pretty quickly. My guess we will stay in warm neutral or weak El Nino to winter next year before returning more closer to normal neutral by end of 2015.

Sub Surface now

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/oceanography/wrap_ocean_analysis.pl?id=IDYOC007&year=2014&month=12

Sub Surface end of 2009

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/oceanography/wrap_ocean_analysis.pl?id=IDYOC007&year=2010&month=01






Edited by _Johnno_ (28/12/2014 01:42)
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#1293814 - 28/12/2014 01:57 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1689


Edited by _Johnno_ (28/12/2014 02:05)
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#1293815 - 28/12/2014 02:01 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1689
Its been less than 3 years since we saw our last La Nina.
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#1293840 - 28/12/2014 09:44 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
retired weather man Offline
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Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4321
Loc: Wynnum
Current SST's along east coast plus Nth of Aust and south of Eq to way out in Pacific looking pretty warm with cool pool off W Sth Am. Also Malaysia currently getting flooded with 35 knot winds through south China Sea suggesting first monsoonal surge of the season is on the way up north. All this coupled with plenty of moisture being dragged from persistent monsoonal dip in Indian Ocean and more or less weekly bands coming across continent suggest farmers might finally see something decent over the next few weeks. Could the 18 month long Claytons El Nino be finally easing.
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#1293863 - 28/12/2014 12:07 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1596
Loc: Kingaroy
A lot can change between now and autumn, let's hope we do get a cool neutral/La Nina in 2015, there was a news article I read this morning stating that Broken Hill will be out of water by the middle of next year if this drought doesn't break, a lot of outback towns and farmers are pinning their hopes on La Nina next year.


Edited by Chris Stumer (28/12/2014 12:09)

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#1293864 - 28/12/2014 12:14 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 873
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Nino 3.4 dropped right down to 0.4 now up at 0.5 - see: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png
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#1294002 - 29/12/2014 11:51 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: retired weather man]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Current SST's along east coast plus Nth of Aust and south of Eq to way out in Pacific looking pretty warm with cool pool off W Sth Am. Also Malaysia currently getting flooded with 35 knot winds through south China Sea suggesting first monsoonal surge of the season is on the way up north. All this coupled with plenty of moisture being dragged from persistent monsoonal dip in Indian Ocean and more or less weekly bands coming across continent suggest farmers might finally see something decent over the next few weeks. Could the 18 month long Claytons El Nino be finally easing.


Well too late for me..... Sheep are selling next week and I will be walking after that. Drought forced the decision but lack of succession planning is the main cause. No use hanging out for another 6 months then walking.

The mallee is taking off today and our place will be some of the worst of it. Feel pretty crap about it too.

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#1294058 - 29/12/2014 15:25 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 658
Loc: Orange, NSW
Adon, very sorry to hear your news. Must be a really difficult process to go thru. Many on the land are struggling with the same gut wrenching decisions. All the very best for where the road takes you mate.
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#1294070 - 29/12/2014 16:48 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: adon]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1596
Loc: Kingaroy
I'm sorry to hear that adon, hopefully it rains soon.

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#1294074 - 29/12/2014 17:46 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Maclaw Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/12/2008
Posts: 2539
Loc: Emerald Queensland
My heart goes out to you Adon, I am just a watcher on here, not enough knowledge, and I wonder how many more bushies are watchers on here as well. It must be so very very stressful.
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#1294104 - 29/12/2014 20:09 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: logansi]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2082
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: logansi
Nino 3.4 dropped right down to 0.4 now up at 0.5 - see: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png


Looking at the global SST maps they do seem to indicate a lowering in the SST's across the NINO region...

Whether this is a short term cooling or not... The SOI also is running slightly higher, but there were two -37 readings over the past few days that will warp the average readings a bit..

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?lt=global&lc=global&c=ssta

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomg.12.25.2014.gif


Edited by RC (29/12/2014 20:11)

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#1294204 - 30/12/2014 11:39 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1596
Loc: Kingaroy
There are predictions that the PDO has shifted back to a warm phase although we have to wait a few years to know whether it has shifted, but if it has then NASA is wrong, the predictions that we shifted back to a cool PDO phase and a cooler wetter period dominated by La Nina are wrong and we have a serious problem.



Edited by Chris Stumer (30/12/2014 11:45)

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#1294207 - 30/12/2014 11:57 Re: ENSO Discussion 2014 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1596
Loc: Kingaroy
Here is link with NASA explaining that the PDO having shifted back to a cool phase in 2008.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/04/29/nasa-pdo-flip-to-cool-phase-confirmed-cooler-times-ahead/

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