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#1294739 - 01/01/2015 19:08 Re: VIC - Cold Front/Trough - Temporary Break From Heatwave, Rain/Showers, Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Jan 3-6 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
Well looking at the visual sat pics of WA and SA, there seems to be quite a lot of moisture to out NW quadrant so hopefully that means cloud cover and showers/storms on Saturday. Would someone order a few weeks break from the wind though please! It's doing my head in!


Edited by adon (01/01/2015 19:09)

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#1294756 - 01/01/2015 19:58 Re: VIC - Cold Front/Trough - Temporary Break From Heatwave, Rain/Showers, Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Jan 3-6 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1019
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Tonights accessg run has a little more moisture compaired
to last nights run! But this is 50/50 atm,could be hot hot hot
and wind or more stormy and humid,along way to go with this system!

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#1294801 - 01/01/2015 22:46 Re: VIC - Cold Front/Trough - Temporary Break From Heatwave, Rain/Showers, Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Jan 3-6 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Hells kitchen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 284
Loc: SE Failbourne
Quite a bit warmer than expected today. High of 28c today. Made for a rather warm afternoon in the sun grilling on the Weber for the family. Had some spits around mid arvo from a slightly unstable looking sky.


Edited by Hells kitchen (01/01/2015 22:47)
_________________________
death to summer southwesterlies!

2nd worst storm season on record. Fizzers as of Dec 2014: 30/11/14, 1/12/14, 3/12/14, 15/12/14, 29/12/14, 3/1/15 (worst fizzer on record), 8/1/15 (STW issued for light rain), 20/1/15

Thunderstorms since July: 3

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#1294827 - 02/01/2015 00:29 Re: VIC - Cold Front/Trough - Temporary Break From Heatwave, Rain/Showers, Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Jan 3-6 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Glad that I'm not going to have to wait seven or more consecutive days for rain, and that the impending heatwave will be brief. How much I receive is still up in the air! So to avoid disappointment, I'll just assume that it'll be patchy, scrappy, high-based showers and storms with little more than virga lol... while secretly hoping for torrential downpours along with spectacular lightning and maybe even small hail. 10-20mm or more would be fantastic, especially at this time of year when we need it the most!! smile

Turns out my high for yesterday was actually 29.6C. Right now it's 15.5C outside. A comfortable night ahead, and then 2 days (plus one night) of temperatures between 25-45C. frown

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#1294853 - 02/01/2015 03:11 Re: VIC - Cold Front/Trough - Temporary Break From Heatwave, Rain/Showers, Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Jan 3-6 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Hells kitchen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 284
Loc: SE Failbourne
All heatwaves in Melbourne are brief, and are invariably surrounded by a week or more of low to mid 20's days, usually with low teens mornings with overcast maritime filth.

Bring on Friday and Saturday.


Edited by Hells kitchen (02/01/2015 03:12)
_________________________
death to summer southwesterlies!

2nd worst storm season on record. Fizzers as of Dec 2014: 30/11/14, 1/12/14, 3/12/14, 15/12/14, 29/12/14, 3/1/15 (worst fizzer on record), 8/1/15 (STW issued for light rain), 20/1/15

Thunderstorms since July: 3

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#1294881 - 02/01/2015 09:52 Re: VIC - Cold Front/Trough - Temporary Break From Heatwave, Rain/Showers, Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Jan 3-6 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Enjoy the heat while it lasts Hells Kitchen, you've finally got your wish... but please spare a thought for us who live in bushfire-prone areas such as myself! I especially dread tomorrow, when we get gusty winds as well!! frown

A cool night, with a low of 13.7C, currently around 22C. smile

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#1294885 - 02/01/2015 10:17 Re: VIC - Cold Front/Trough - Temporary Break From Heatwave, Rain/Showers, Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Jan 3-6 2015 [Re: Hells kitchen]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1441
Originally Posted By: Hells kitchen
All heatwaves in Melbourne are brief, and are invariably surrounded by a week or more of low to mid 20's days, usually with low teens mornings with overcast maritime filth.

Bring on Friday and Saturday.

Yes because last year and 2009 never happened confused

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#1294888 - 02/01/2015 10:24 Re: VIC - Cold Front/Trough - Temporary Break From Heatwave, Rain/Showers, Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Jan 3-6 2015 [Re: TheAnt]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: TheAnt
Originally Posted By: Hells kitchen
All heatwaves in Melbourne are brief, and are invariably surrounded by a week or more of low to mid 20's days, usually with low teens mornings with overcast maritime filth.

Bring on Friday and Saturday.

Yes because last year and 2009 never happened confused


Or 2005/2006! =S

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#1294891 - 02/01/2015 10:30 Re: VIC - Cold Front/Trough - Temporary Break From Heatwave, Rain/Showers, Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Jan 3-6 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
2005/06 for us was bad for us as well! Almost exactly 9 years ago (1/1/06) we hit a top of 45C and I think it was Sydney's 3rd or 4th hottest day on record. Even though I was only 7 years old, I remember that day clearly! smile
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1294894 - 02/01/2015 10:37 Re: VIC - Cold Front/Trough - Temporary Break From Heatwave, Rain/Showers, Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Jan 3-6 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yes, and I was only in my late-teens during 2005/2006! I remember the heat all too clearly also, I was on my way to Corryong on New Year's Eve and it was BRUTAL during the trip, especially across Northern Victoria!! I recall seeing a dead koala (a poor victim of the extreme heat) somewhere along the Hume Freeway near Seymour! frown

But the worst heat I've endured was Black Saturday, and since then I have an absolute hatred for hot, dry weather (sorry Hells Kitchen). frown

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#1294900 - 02/01/2015 10:49 Re: VIC - Cold Front/Trough - Temporary Break From Heatwave, Rain/Showers, Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Jan 3-6 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Sounds like it must have been a pretty widespread event. Sad to hear about the koala.

I remember seeing koalas drinking water and whole towns being burnt to the ground in Feb 2009. That was a sad event. frown
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1294902 - 02/01/2015 10:56 Re: VIC - Cold Front/Trough - Temporary Break From Heatwave, Rain/Showers, Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Jan 3-6 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Sure was! And we had our own bushfire scare roughly two weeks after the events of February 7th! Thankfully there was little wind and it wasn't very hot, but we had a fire come far too close for comfort! frown

The chill and overcast that HK loathes sounds much more appealling, or better yet stifling humidity with storms and rain (as I found to my delight lol in Fiji two summers ago). smile

Edit: and now that I think about it, I'll be glad when the humidity starts increasing!! grin


Edited by aussiestormfreak (02/01/2015 10:57)

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#1295117 - 02/01/2015 19:56 Re: VIC - Cold Front/Trough - Temporary Break From Heatwave, Rain/Showers, Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Jan 3-6 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6598
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Being a greed bugger, I'll post the AccR precipitation for tomorrow night for when the change hits (or at least precipitation is mooted to be recorded) for Gippsland:



Our local BOM is calling for storms at night ahead of midnight - AccR (above) circa 2 hrs later.

Either way a stinker of a night ahead for Gippsland - ESPECIALLY the campers from Seaspray through to Mallacoota! shocked

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#1295135 - 02/01/2015 20:46 Re: VIC - Cold Front/Trough - Temporary Break From Heatwave, Rain/Showers, Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Jan 3-6 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
Here's the latest offerings from GFS for tomorrow (Sat):




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#1295137 - 02/01/2015 20:49 Re: VIC - Cold Front/Trough - Temporary Break From Heatwave, Rain/Showers, Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Jan 3-6 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1019
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Here's the latest offerings from GFS for tomorrow (Sat):





Got dry storms written all over it!!

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#1295139 - 02/01/2015 20:50 Re: VIC - Cold Front/Trough - Temporary Break From Heatwave, Rain/Showers, Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Jan 3-6 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6598
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Ken.

Based on that, [edit - Saturday night] I'll be happy to sit out and watch a distant lightning show over the N ranges (while waiting for things to cool enough to get some sleep!!!).


Edited by Petros (02/01/2015 20:51)

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#1295142 - 02/01/2015 20:54 Re: VIC - Cold Front/Trough - Temporary Break From Heatwave, Rain/Showers, Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Jan 3-6 2015 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1019
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Originally Posted By: Petros
Thanks Ken.

Based on that, [edit - Saturday night] I'll be happy to sit out and watch a distant lightning show over the N ranges (while waiting for things to cool enough to get some sleep!!!).


As long as they dont start fires!

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#1295167 - 02/01/2015 21:53 Re: VIC - Cold Front/Trough - Temporary Break From Heatwave, Rain/Showers, Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Jan 3-6 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
Well if a CG hits basically anything up here without rain it will burn now. Would have burned in September. Want wet storms for shiz

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#1295173 - 02/01/2015 22:17 Re: VIC - Cold Front/Trough - Temporary Break From Heatwave, Rain/Showers, Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Jan 3-6 2015 [Re: adon]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 879
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: adon
Well if a CG hits basically anything up here without rain it will burn now. Would have burned in September. Want wet storms for shiz


yeah i bet it would. A big concern in terms of campaign fires will be in the Sunset and Wyperfeld NP like last year - lets hope the lightning avoids those areas. Because if anything starts it would be sure to make a big run tomorrow
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1295177 - 02/01/2015 22:23 Re: VIC - Cold Front/Trough - Temporary Break From Heatwave, Rain/Showers, Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Jan 3-6 2015 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 875
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
Based on the other week at Eurora, Wangaratta, Wodonga etc I reckon a CG will be an issue anywhere. Catch you all tomorrow, stay safe all.

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