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#1295086 - 02/01/2015 18:31 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2014/2015 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7711
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
EC sitting LAM out there for a few days developing in zero steering for a few days and recurving back to Broome now. Such dramatic changes every day. Wonder what the next week will show.





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#1295088 - 02/01/2015 18:34 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2014/2015 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 279
Loc: Karratha, WA
Huge change, there's your 400mm!

This one's going to be a goody, models all over the place smile

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#1295089 - 02/01/2015 18:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2014/2015 [Re: Popeye]
Windymister Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/01/2013
Posts: 160
Loc: Port Hedland
fair to say broometown is overdue!

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#1295093 - 02/01/2015 18:46 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2014/2015 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 2960
Loc: Broome

Yes until there is a clear indication of the low intensifying with some serious circulation I wouldn't go with any of those models.

Better off using a dart board with the Kimberley and North West on it... wink

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#1295094 - 02/01/2015 18:48 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2014/2015 [Re: Popeye]
VK6DI Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 28/12/2012
Posts: 49
Loc: WA (Perth and Pilbara)
Yup, models all over the place now... Such dramatic changes between runs means it's probably open to anyone's guesses being right. Taking a while to make their minds up here at work about cyclone status and tie-down...

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#1295102 - 02/01/2015 18:59 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2014/2015 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 2960
Loc: Broome


From my experience once a TC has formed and been declared ,then direction and likely crossing areas become a lot more defined within the computer models.
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#1295103 - 02/01/2015 19:06 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2014/2015 [Re: Popeye]
VK6DI Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 28/12/2012
Posts: 49
Loc: WA (Perth and Pilbara)
A case of hurry up and wait! Haha. Frustrating!

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#1295115 - 02/01/2015 19:50 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2014/2015 [Re: Popeye]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4174
Here's the latest TC formation probabilities within the next 48hrs derived from satellite data analysis at 00z this morning:


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#1295263 - 03/01/2015 07:30 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2014/2015 [Re: Popeye]
Squeako_88 Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 364
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Well with this current modelling models have put some doubt if this system will even get off the coast and develop further. With that big upper low and trough forecast to move across the southern Australia during next week. No cyclones for nobody for the next 1 or 2 weeks if that is the case... but it'll bring a lot rain through central Australia.
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#1295283 - 03/01/2015 08:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2014/2015 [Re: Popeye]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS has the low tracking down the coast and then inland by friday. Briefly off shore on monday.
Even becomes a duo complex at timesand goes in and out of organisation.Captured in the complex low thats been persistent on the mainland
May get CAT 1 status off shore on monday or LAM becomes hybrid storm
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1295313 - 03/01/2015 09:43 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2014/2015 [Re: Popeye]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5245
Loc: Not tellin!
Both GFS and BOM showing some type of Noah's ark type event for Central Australia! No doubt the next run will have something entirely different but geez I dint thing I have ever seen so much progged rain for inland areas. Seems the acid trip was a string one this time! Haha

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#1295331 - 03/01/2015 10:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2014/2015 [Re: Popeye]
Windymister Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/01/2013
Posts: 160
Loc: Port Hedland
Forget one for the fishes this might be one for the desert frogs!

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#1295346 - 03/01/2015 10:30 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2014/2015 [Re: Popeye]
Brett Guy Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4820
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
If that possibility comes off the desert will soon become the worlds largest floral display.

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#1295362 - 03/01/2015 11:10 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2014/2015 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7711
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
****BREAKING NEWS****

CAT 4 Cyclone LAM hits Ceduna in SA. hahaha

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#1295365 - 03/01/2015 11:15 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2014/2015 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7711
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
The Government should take the opportunity while it presents itself and build the shipping canal from the Nwest to Adelaide that they have always talked about. Broome could be the Northern Harbour and Adelaide the Southern one. OK better have a coffee now lol.
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#1295366 - 03/01/2015 11:16 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2014/2015 [Re: Popeye]
Simmo FNQ Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1307
Loc: Mareeba
Hahaha. Good thing that is impossible otherwise it would be devastating for SA.
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#1295415 - 03/01/2015 12:41 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2014/2015 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 2960
Loc: Broome

Maybe no TC for us afterall but as long as we get the rain for us and the Pilbara and the interior as well by the looks all is good. wink

Our TC didn,t have all the cyclogenetic ingredients by the looks of it and may be replaced by a duo low .... cry cry grin

Things have been changing everyday so far .. .There is so many elements and parameters that have to be taken into account to make predictions and the atmosphere has had its own mind and keeps changing the playing fields..

The atmosphere may be a bit more dynamic than the computer modelling can digest in this case anyway.

Wouldn't be suprised what the situation is like in a couple of days time

Might end up with a low forming in Tasmania and tracking up to Broome as a TC laugh laugh
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#1295450 - 03/01/2015 13:30 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2014/2015 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7711
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Bugger does that mean I have to go back to work? Still hoping for it to sit stationary over the West Kimberley and give us a good drink. If we miss this one and tropical influences move East it may be some weeks until round 2 comes back to this region.

At least those 70% of models that had it skirting around Exmouth got it wrong. wink lol. Models, Models, Models how wrong they can be. lol Looks like the spanner in the works flew with this one.

I will give it a few days though cause the spanner might fly back again. Just as long as it doesn't hit me in the face as a CAT 5. Cat 1-2 would be great though.
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#1295456 - 03/01/2015 13:53 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2014/2015 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 313
Loc: Broome, WA
Lets hope its high tide at Willie Creek as she passes over the top. Might make it up to TC strength on approach to town then!!

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#1295473 - 03/01/2015 14:23 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2014/2015 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7711
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Never been a big fan of the Earth wind site but it looks to be close to the money with this one.



Backs up the latest BOM map. Pretty close to the coast but weak. Has potential though. Crossing at Willie Creek in a week Sepo. You might be right.

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