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#1296100 - 04/01/2015 22:14 Re: Storm Potential - Eastern NSW 1st Jan 2015 to 5th Jan 2015 [Re: ozthunder]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3209
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney does seem to have had thunderstorms and moderate to heavy rain parked over its main water supply for a few hours. That's got to be good. The rain and storms still seem to be plodding about going nowhere.

Cooler, low overcast and windy here but no sign of rain. Maybe it will drop below 21 tonight fir the first time this year.

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#1296110 - 04/01/2015 22:50 Re: Storm Potential - Eastern NSW 1st Jan 2015 to 5th Jan 2015 [Re: ozthunder]
Wave Rider Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5623
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Yeah guys, it certainly is erratic in movement tonight. It's sad that there is so little upper shear, that the surface winds are controlling the storms movement...

Lol SB.

Yeah ipex, enjoy the eerie lightning fog!!

Yep Steve thats certainly a good thing about the dam.

Hopefully we see some storms on out next chance around the 10th/11th/12th, as it looks like there will be a trough, then a short lived ECL!! We'll have to keep our eyes on it!


Edited by Sea-Mist (04/01/2015 22:52)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1296120 - 04/01/2015 23:49 Re: Storm Potential - Eastern NSW 1st Jan 2015 to 5th Jan 2015 [Re: ozthunder]
mkeene(pingtang) Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/09/2011
Posts: 515
Loc: Nowra,NSW
Entering a typical January pattern.

The shear disappeared a few weeks ago, now the upper level temperatures are deteriorating as well. By Saturday the 500mb level is expected to be -2c to -4c, and massive 10-12c warmer than what it was in early Decemeber. This has a horrible effect on storm development, and I notice the rest of long gfs indicates warm uppers as well.

Some times January sees a lull in storm activity with February and March being a second season for us, as the upper level support returns.

This afternoons chase was frustrating. The target was Moss Vale. We were at Sutton forest until 2pm even having lunch at the pub, from there we got baited into the Southern Tablelands by earlier activity. I'm disappointed in myself, as I knew (before the day even started) , that storms would fire much further south earlier in the day, and it would be a struggle to resist any temptation chasing towards them. I wanted to stick with my Highlands target, but kept drifting away from it. In goulburn it was decision time, chase back to the original target or take on a healthy line of congestus west of Tarago.Even going back to Nowra was mentioned. We chose the congestus and chose wrong ,it evaporated. A healthier lot of congestus fired even further south, so we went to Bungendore. From here we intercepted a black cored storm right on the boundary of the change, this storm did look nice on radar for a few frames,and there was some greenage good contrast base and bolts, however it rapidly became outflow dominant. The outflow, kicked well in front of the storm though I sense it may have been the change itself as well. This set off a chain reaction of weak storms which seemed to back build with us from Tarago to Goulburn.



Edited by mkeene(pingtang) (04/01/2015 23:51)

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#1296155 - 05/01/2015 09:34 Re: Storm Potential - Eastern NSW 1st Jan 2015 to 5th Jan 2015 [Re: ozthunder]
Wave Rider Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5623
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Nice chase report MK, did any of the guys from ISC tag along? Yeah I have noticed that Jan tends to be a lull, especially the first half, which tends to have a few very hot days and be very dry. Often, a wetter pattern will initiate in the second half of January.

Much cooler this morning and 100% scumtherly cloud. Only 19/17 with 88% humidity and absolutely no wind to speak of. Our total to 9am was 12.6mm
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1296167 - 05/01/2015 10:05 Re: Storm Potential - Eastern NSW 1st Jan 2015 to 5th Jan 2015 [Re: ozthunder]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1346
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Cooler but humid here this morning,overcast with low cloud from E.high cloud above,calm to light E,SE winds.no rain.

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#1296168 - 05/01/2015 10:06 Re: Storm Potential - Eastern NSW 1st Jan 2015 to 5th Jan 2015 [Re: ozthunder]
Duane Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/11/2005
Posts: 1394
Loc: Lake Albert, Wagga Wagga, NSW.
Have had nothing here yet. Still waiting for the first weather of 2015. Have just had heat and wind. Possible storms and showers forcast for the rest of the week but wont get my hopes up.
Duane.

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#1296170 - 05/01/2015 10:12 Re: Storm Potential - Eastern NSW 1st Jan 2015 to 5th Jan 2015 [Re: ozthunder]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
I have been down in the Monaro since Boxing Day, and drove home yesterday. Just missed a nasty storm at Michelago by the skin of my teeth, from what I could see it was a likely supercell (~1715). I then encountered some torrential rain around Goulburn which flooded the North Goulburn McDonalds (~1845). A brief but heavy storm with some close CGs climbing out of Menangle as well, around 2100.

Arrived home to dry roads and gardens of course. That cell near Oatley earlier in the day must have missed here.

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#1296182 - 05/01/2015 11:08 Re: Storm Potential - Eastern NSW 1st Jan 2015 to 5th Jan 2015 [Re: ozthunder]
Wave Rider Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5623
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Yeah DB, there were some nasty storms down there. That certainly would have been an interesting drive..!!
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1296187 - 05/01/2015 12:26 Re: Storm Potential - Eastern NSW 1st Jan 2015 to 5th Jan 2015 [Re: mkeene(pingtang)]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 2926
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: mkeene(pingtang)
. We chose the congestus and chose wrong ,it evaporated. A healthier lot of congestus fired even further south, so we went to Bungendore.


My chase was very similar.

My original target was Tarago or further east like Windellema. I was hoping that the SE wind would progress further inland, but it stayed SW.

I was on that same line of congestus at Tarago and watched it "evaporate". Rarely have I seen such healthy looking cloud deteriorate so quickly. I noted at the same time that the temperature felt a few degrees cooler, although wind had not changed, and mid layer cloud had started to thicken.

I was contemplating going further south, but bailed for the highlands instead. It was a lucky move as I got a quickly developing storm just north of Canyonleigh. In just 18mins (timed from video), it went from a green RFB to full on microburst.

My chase day ended as this microburst fell a large tree right across the Illawarra Hwy at Sutton Forest. The outflow from that storm also headed SE, colliding with the northwards moving Nowra storm. The result was they killed each other off.

I will post some pictures tonight and a video link.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1296209 - 05/01/2015 13:39 Re: Storm Potential - Eastern NSW 1st Jan 2015 to 5th Jan 2015 [Re: ozthunder]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5675
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Radar, satellite and lightning tracker showing some shower and thunderstorm activity about the NSW Snowy Mountains between the headwaters of the Murray River and Canberra! Hope it still hangs around by the time I reach Corryong, Northeast Victoria from Melbourne later! smile

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#1296219 - 05/01/2015 14:12 Re: Storm Potential - Eastern NSW 1st Jan 2015 to 5th Jan 2015 [Re: ozthunder]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1346
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Any storms today are moving West further inland again.our best bet would be from the East.

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#1296224 - 05/01/2015 14:52 Re: Storm Potential - Eastern NSW 1st Jan 2015 to 5th Jan 2015 [Re: ozthunder]
Wave Rider Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5623
Loc: Wollongong NSW
I hope you see some nice storm action in Corryong later!! It's quite possible too, since the storms are moving westwards again today, as Stormy3 stated.

I think I'm going to completely disregard storm activity for the Illawarra today. Although the BoM are still forecasting possible storms for the highlands.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1296257 - 05/01/2015 18:18 Re: Storm Potential - Eastern NSW 1st Jan 2015 to 5th Jan 2015 [Re: ozthunder]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 639
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Well that was a lovely storm that just went through Canberra. I work near the airport and was leaving work when I noticed it was only just going to scrape the airport gauge. Could see a very very thick rain shaft parked over the CBD/Civic area so I decided to take a different route home and core punch it.

Storm almost felt stationary for a while, very very heavy rain.

Lots of flash flooding around the CBD / Civic area of Canberra. Most people were all driving to the conditions which was good. Couldn't really get over 30km/h anyway as there was almost zero visibility and a lot of water over the road causing some vehicles to aqua plane.

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#1296260 - 05/01/2015 18:25 Re: Storm Potential - Eastern NSW 1st Jan 2015 to 5th Jan 2015 [Re: balmz]
Holmes Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 04/02/2009
Posts: 39
Loc: Griffith (ACT)
Sure was Balmz - I thought we were lined up for a soaking in Griffith (ACT) after missing out yesterday but only got 5.5mm. Still better than nothing and hopefully more to come (although that cell behind it seems to be shrinking/turning north). Great to hear the thunder rolling around though.

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#1296272 - 05/01/2015 19:11 Re: Storm Potential - Eastern NSW 1st Jan 2015 to 5th Jan 2015 [Re: ozthunder]
Wave Rider Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5623
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Good stuff guys, nice to hear that you Canberrians got a storm. It looks like there's another one hitting the eastern suburbs of Canberra. Was there hail in it, balmz and holmes?

Despite being a cloudy day, it was actually quite mild with a top of 24C reached with light NE/SE winds.


Edited by Sea-Mist (05/01/2015 19:13)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1296273 - 05/01/2015 19:14 Re: Storm Potential - Eastern NSW 1st Jan 2015 to 5th Jan 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 639
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Originally Posted By: Sea-Mist
Good stuff guys, nice to hear that you Canberrians got a storm. It looks like there's another one hitting the eastern suburbs of Canberra. Was there hail in it, balmz and holmes?

Despite being a cloudy day, it was actually quite mild with a top of 24C reached with light NE/SE winds.


No Hail that I saw, and I core punched the sucker, just torrential rain. Was a white out, reminded me of when I lived in Darwin.

I did see some green tinge in the cloud though as it was approaching so it may have had some at some point in its life. Can't imagine it being very big though, don't think the conditions are right.

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#1296274 - 05/01/2015 19:20 Re: Storm Potential - Eastern NSW 1st Jan 2015 to 5th Jan 2015 [Re: ozthunder]
Wave Rider Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5623
Loc: Wollongong NSW
On radar it looks like it may have had hail, but as you said, conditions are likely not right. Probably because the uppers are too warm and the storm probably didn't erupt at a high enough level. I was just asking because I was curious about the black on radar, but Captains Flat radar does tend to overread the rainfall.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1296275 - 05/01/2015 19:23 Re: Storm Potential - Eastern NSW 1st Jan 2015 to 5th Jan 2015 [Re: ozthunder]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 639
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
The cell to my East definitely looks like a beast from my balcony. Just black out there! The Northern suburbs missed out completely from the earlier cell. about 10km North of the CBD I drove out of the rain and it was bone dry. Just been spitting light rain ever since. Wish it would do a left hook! poke

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#1296279 - 05/01/2015 19:27 Re: Storm Potential - Eastern NSW 1st Jan 2015 to 5th Jan 2015 [Re: ozthunder]
strontium dog Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/05/2007
Posts: 269
Loc: Bungendore
It hailed in Bungendore which is where I live now.

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#1296284 - 05/01/2015 20:34 Re: Storm Potential - Eastern NSW 1st Jan 2015 to 5th Jan 2015 [Re: ozthunder]
Jaeger Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 68
Loc: Canberra/Brisbane
balmz - There was some small hail mixed in with heaviest part of that storm.

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