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#1297725 - 09/01/2015 10:38 Re: Vic - arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15 [Re: Petros]
thunderunder Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2011
Posts: 433
Loc: Stewarton
Latest model check, they are all in agree ness that some big rains will eventuate but all still seem to be slightly disagreeing with exactly in the state who will get the heaviest falls, could be west, central or Far East. Anyone game to have a guess. My prediction is highest falls along the mighty Murray, putting money on first place mildura, second place yarrawonga and perhaps I am thinkings the hills around Whitfield/Bright area. Anyone else game ??? I will go highest fall for the state 160mm over four days.

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#1297740 - 09/01/2015 11:43 Re: Vic - arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15 [Re: thunderunder]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1019
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Originally Posted By: thunderunder
Latest model check, they are all in agree ness that some big rains will eventuate but all still seem to be slightly disagreeing with exactly in the state who will get the heaviest falls, could be west, central or Far East. Anyone game to have a guess. My prediction is highest falls along the mighty Murray, putting money on first place mildura, second place yarrawonga and perhaps I am thinkings the hills around Whitfield/Bright area. Anyone else game ??? I will go highest fall for the state 160mm over four days.


Yeah i see exactly what your saying regarding models,there still so changable with this event and prob will continue to be for the next four days!Very hard to pick, but id say this event will favour anywhere from the dividing range through to the murray river. I'll say two seperate areas being 'midura/swan hill'area & north east rangers 'benalla/euroa'. top fall of 110mm for euroa.

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#1297744 - 09/01/2015 11:50 Re: Vic - arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15 [Re: Petros]
Sora Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 02/09/2014
Posts: 33
Loc: Melbourne
The BOM has revised rainfall back to 10-20MM for Melbourne on Monday. Hope it sticks out. grin
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#1297748 - 09/01/2015 12:02 Re: Vic - arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15 [Re: Sora]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1019
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Originally Posted By: Sora
The BOM has revised rainfall back to 10-20MM for Melbourne on Monday. Hope it sticks out. grin


Very nice smile

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#1297750 - 09/01/2015 12:04 Re: Vic - arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1019
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
I'll go 90mm for hunters hill/north east vic as well lol

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#1297753 - 09/01/2015 12:07 Re: Vic - arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2290
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
More rubbish will thicken in NW, more cooler now and we all want some isolated storms, so wait see how Low pressure drop down from outback.

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#1297761 - 09/01/2015 12:25 Re: Vic - arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15 [Re: Wave Rider]
Hells kitchen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 284
Loc: SE Failbourne
Originally Posted By: Sea-Mist


Thanks HK, I didn't necessarily doubt that reading, it's just that I couldn't find anything else comparable, but obviously you did. Still 100% humidity, but more comfortable 20/20.

Btw, are you enjoying the scumtherly yet? poke


Days like today are the reason I loathe this climate mad Absolutely ugly out there, looks and feels like a textbook July day. Barely 16C at NOON. Hardly any rain either to make this subarctic dross "worthwhile", just that classic vile low stratocrapulus and cold scumtherly. Serious penance to pay for Wed's storms.... yesterday's unsurpassed fizzer and now this. mad

Unfortunately, mid next week looks to bring more of the same for a very long period it seems. Bile garnished with vomit.


Edited by Hells kitchen (09/01/2015 12:29)
_________________________
death to summer southwesterlies!

2nd worst storm season on record. Fizzers as of Dec 2014: 30/11/14, 1/12/14, 3/12/14, 15/12/14, 29/12/14, 3/1/15 (worst fizzer on record), 8/1/15 (STW issued for light rain), 20/1/15

Thunderstorms since July: 3

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#1297763 - 09/01/2015 12:28 Re: Vic - arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15 [Re: Petros]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Woke up to a bit of a surprise just now - it's bloody foggy! About 50m visibility up here, so not too bad, but atmosphere is just absolutely saturated. 5mm in the dodgy weather station since midnight.
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#1297766 - 09/01/2015 12:40 Re: Vic - arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2290
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
In Bendigo Advertiser says The SES is urging residents to be prepared in the event of flash flooding in parts of central Victoria today.
Told by Bureau of Meteorology has issued a severe weather warning for rainfall in parts of central Victoria????

The SE wind flow across Victoria is chance of isolated thunderstorms as good wind shear to East direction.

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#1297772 - 09/01/2015 12:58 Re: Vic - arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15 [Re: Petros]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Here's the BoM's take on the thunderstorm risk for today. All of the northern districts are covered by likely (including North Central), and southern districts are 'chance'. Wonder if they're a little more cautious after yesterday:

Quote:
Issued at 12:24 pm Friday, 9 January 2015,
Valid until midnight on Friday, 9 January 2015.
Thunderstorms are likely within the indicated area associated with high moisture, unstable conditions and favourable upper-level dynamics. Storm motion is likely to be from the northwest averaging around 20-30 km/h over the northwest and 50-70 km/h over the east. Heavy rainfall is likely with ANY thunderstorms that do occur, particularly over the northwest of the State and a Severe Weather Warning is current for heavy rainfall. Large hail is a small but significant risk over the northern Mallee and eastern East Gippsland. A chance of non-surface based thunderstorms over the remaining indicated area.
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#1297778 - 09/01/2015 13:07 Re: Vic - arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15 [Re: Hells kitchen]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Originally Posted By: Hells kitchen
Originally Posted By: Sea-Mist


Thanks HK, I didn't necessarily doubt that reading, it's just that I couldn't find anything else comparable, but obviously you did. Still 100% humidity, but more comfortable 20/20.

Btw, are you enjoying the scumtherly yet? poke


Days like today are the reason I loathe this climate mad Absolutely ugly out there, looks and feels like a textbook July day. Barely 16C at NOON. Hardly any rain either to make this subarctic dross "worthwhile", just that classic vile low stratocrapulus and cold scumtherly. Serious penance to pay for Wed's storms.... yesterday's unsurpassed fizzer and now this. mad

Unfortunately, mid next week looks to bring more of the same for a very long period it seems. Bile garnished with vomit.


Don't worry mate, I know how you feel as we get southerlies quite alot too. I suppose at least ours are a bit warmer. Why do you think I made up the name "scumtherly", hahaha. poke
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2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1297780 - 09/01/2015 13:14 Re: Vic - arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2290
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
There is isolated cell in my West and lots of black clouds everywhere. Its moving SE very slow.

Also looks like i am between North and South trough.

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#1297784 - 09/01/2015 13:18 Re: Vic - arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1019
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Bom have issued 3 flood watches for:north west,north central & north east,for possibility of rainfall in order of 50-80mm!
Pretty much tells you the heavy stuff will be confined to the northern sector of vic.:(

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#1297785 - 09/01/2015 13:19 Re: Vic - arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15 [Re: Petros]
Sora Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 02/09/2014
Posts: 33
Loc: Melbourne
Any chance of rain in Glen Iris?
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#1297787 - 09/01/2015 13:19 Re: Vic - arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1019
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
We just had about 15min of steady rain,prob gave us 2mm lol

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#1297789 - 09/01/2015 13:27 Re: Vic - arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1019
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
This event is really hard to read regarding possible totals for southern vic?I'd be saying the only reason why the bom still have some healthy totals possible for south vic,is that if you lucky enough to jag a storm,Otherwise its just going to be steady rain periods which imo wont deliver that much!

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#1297798 - 09/01/2015 13:54 Re: Vic - arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15 [Re: Petros]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 875
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
Yeah, we got 2mm out of this morning. It felt like a lot more. I'll be mightily peeved with the weather gods (almost as much as HK even smile ) if we don't get at least 40 -50mm by Monday.

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#1297800 - 09/01/2015 13:59 Re: Vic - arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2290
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very strong updraft pumping low clouds and two big cells looks like heavy rain to come because showers fell out thin uppers telling very humid.

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#1297817 - 09/01/2015 14:28 Re: Vic - arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2290
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thunder heavy rain

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#1297823 - 09/01/2015 14:37 Re: Vic - arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15 [Re: Wave Rider]
Hells kitchen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 284
Loc: SE Failbourne
Originally Posted By: Sea-Mist

Don't worry mate, I know how you feel as we get southerlies quite alot too. I suppose at least ours are a bit warmer. Why do you think I made up the name "scumtherly", hahaha. poke


That's the big difference. Your scumtherlies are actually mild and humid with 19-20C lows and mid 20's highs. I would not mind that one bit. Our scumtherlies on the other hand bring days that are colder than your nights!

A wintry 16/15 currently with low overcast clag. The city just managed to scrape past the forecast low of 17C. Herp de Derp

One of the worst January days in recent history.
_________________________
death to summer southwesterlies!

2nd worst storm season on record. Fizzers as of Dec 2014: 30/11/14, 1/12/14, 3/12/14, 15/12/14, 29/12/14, 3/1/15 (worst fizzer on record), 8/1/15 (STW issued for light rain), 20/1/15

Thunderstorms since July: 3

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