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#1299956 - 16/01/2015 18:32 Re: ENSO Discussion 2015 [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2254
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
But at the end of the day the BOM seem to have so far been correct with their prediction of a dryish spring/early summer...

We still have not seen any widespread general rain events..

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#1299981 - 16/01/2015 19:32 Re: ENSO Discussion 2015 [Re: divho]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6925
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: divho
'His winter rainfall and temp forecasts couldn't have been more wrong either.'

Another example of why this forum is losing contributors.

That is ridiculous. A healthy forum allows all opinions to be posted, discussed and the conclusion/learning sits with each forum member. That's how we all learn.

I've personally seen many "exuberant(?)" members over lots of years end up being our current flock of BOM forecasters. Let it roll, put up (polite) counter arguments to posts you don't agree with, and let us lurkers learn!

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#1300077 - 16/01/2015 22:59 Re: ENSO Discussion 2015 [Re: ColdFront]
Alexia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 586
Loc: Corryong
Very well said Petros I guess we all know who we like to hear from and respect their posts. It does annoy me when people try to shoot them down.

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#1300081 - 16/01/2015 23:07 Re: ENSO Discussion 2015 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18393
Loc: Burnett Heads
Looks like a counter argument to me. The original poster ha done more than his fair share of shooting down.
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#1300089 - 16/01/2015 23:27 Re: ENSO Discussion 2015 [Re: ColdFront]
Alexia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 586
Loc: Corryong
When ever did two wrongs make a right?

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#1300090 - 16/01/2015 23:36 Re: ENSO Discussion 2015 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18393
Loc: Burnett Heads
Or 3 for that matter.


Quite a significant break down in the warm pool in the eastern half of the Pacific the past couple of weeks. Temporary or a trend back towards neutral? The heating in the subsurface has lost its intensity also.

Interesting animation showing the ocean heat moving out away from the maritime continent into the central pacific.

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycom1-12/navo/globalsst_nowcast_anim30d.gif


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#1300114 - 17/01/2015 06:47 Re: ENSO Discussion 2015 [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3059
Loc: Buderim
Interesting to note that the CFS model has reacted to the recent westerly activity by significantly ramping up its forecast in the short term. It now hints at a third peak on this El Nino in March or April, and then a small hint of a rebound towards neutral or even slightly cool conditions later in the year. Note that on the CFS model the blue lines are the most recent model runs.

Does anyone know if the CFS model has benefited from the recent GFS upgrade? I've always assumed that GFS and CFS are related?

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#1300137 - 17/01/2015 09:56 Re: ENSO Discussion 2015 [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3059
Loc: Buderim
A further comment on the western warm pool. Although it is still stronger than usual at this stage of an El Nino, it has weakened somewhat in the last couple months, and is on the low side of what we've seen for the last few years. If the westerly activity continues in the next couple months the warm pool will weaken further, and if we get a significant el nino build later in the year as CFS is currently predicting then I'd expect we'd see the western warm pool go well below average resulting in a good opportunity for a strong La Nina to follow.

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#1300474 - 18/01/2015 11:13 Re: ENSO Discussion 2015 [Re: ColdFront]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1536
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Interesting ob i just saw on the BOM enso tracker - link :
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/tracker/#tabs=History
We haven't ever recorded an el-nino watch since this the start of this chart shows since 1980 for the month of january,, even then it has never been evident on this chart.
Normally we would be in an el-nino in january. Interesting ob and thought i would share it with you. Just shows i can't even figure out this phase that has been going on since 2012
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#1300630 - 18/01/2015 17:02 Re: ENSO Discussion 2015 [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1786
Loc: Kingaroy
A strong El Nino this year is not a pretty prospect, if CFS is right then it could be the Federation Drought all over again.

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#1300637 - 18/01/2015 17:09 Re: ENSO Discussion 2015 [Re: ColdFront]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2326
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
What is normal?

We have no idea what normal is.
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#1300676 - 18/01/2015 18:46 Re: ENSO Discussion 2015 [Re: Chris Stumer]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2087
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
A strong El Nino this year is not a pretty prospect, if CFS is right then it could be the Federation Drought all over again.


It's always either boom or bust with you isn't it. With your constant prognostications of doom you should write for the Courier-Mail. smile

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#1300685 - 18/01/2015 19:03 Re: ENSO Discussion 2015 [Re: ColdFront]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5075
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Yeah.I can't see the terrible drought happening now. There has been enough rain through much of inland QLD over the last month or so to suggest a change in the prevailing patterns in most places and any follow up rain over the remainder of the wet season(which seems likely the way the trough systems have been going), should prove to be drought ending in those areas. Of course. could be way off the mark but that is what it looks like to my uneducated eyes.

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#1300688 - 18/01/2015 19:18 Re: ENSO Discussion 2015 [Re: ColdFront]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1536
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Yeah, this is a weird setup and true " what is normal" though we've learnt ab bit about trends over the last 30 years, but we may have to learn the next 30 which may be distinctly different to the previous. My gut says more on the dry side for the next 6 months ( Hope i am wrong as i love the rain no matter how much )
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#1300689 - 18/01/2015 19:22 Re: ENSO Discussion 2015 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1786
Loc: Kingaroy
Hopefully it breaks soon.

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#1300709 - 18/01/2015 20:07 Re: ENSO Discussion 2015 [Re: ColdFront]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2326
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
Normal doesn't exist because we really have only seen a warm PDO and the cold one was before our time when we measured these things.

In 200 or 300 years we might get a gauge on what some sort of normality is.

Until then we can see cold PDO El Nino lack viagra and are fairly limp. The 2009 one was decent but this one is fairly benign.

Simply because both times Easterlies overwhelmed any westerly push. And yet this time we had much more sub surface warming than 2009 if you take it in isolation.
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#1300724 - 18/01/2015 20:43 Re: ENSO Discussion 2015 [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3059
Loc: Buderim
And since we don't know what normal is for PDO we have no way of knowing whether cool PDO phases normally go for 30 years or whether the last cool PDO phase was unusually long. It is quite possible that the recent cool PDO phase is now over for another 15 or 30 or however many years it will take until the next phase comes around.

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#1300817 - 19/01/2015 08:40 Re: ENSO Discussion 2015 [Re: ColdFront]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2326
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
Agree Mike anything is possible, mother nature has proven it.
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#1300871 - 19/01/2015 12:29 Re: ENSO Discussion 2015 [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2254
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Also the SOI is not showing any large positive numbers... In fact the opposite is the case with some huge negative figures...

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#1301296 - 20/01/2015 00:06 Re: ENSO Discussion 2015 [Re: Thunderstruck]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1540
Loc: Southern Victoria
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
Originally Posted By: S .O.
Okay My apologies , this must be a generational thing .
Maybe I've been listening to too many Joe Publics over the recent years . Its strangely a coincidence that often a wet period in the ten day holiday tends to lead to a late / prolonged summer .
Werner /poona I realise that the Gulfs tend to create their own weather . I know they are large waters but I tend not to include them as " Coastal " as such , and unless your talking of land breezes werner ( of which I was unaware of in summer ) then I presume these gully winds are actually the entire SE regions prevailing SE " seabreeze " which actually can be classified as some sort of " Trade wind " . My general Inference was that due to the predominant heat built up from stalled troughing in The West Australian Desert coupled the immense heat lift of this region that during low atmospheric wind periods what should be a straight southerly along the entire Sth coast is in 95 % of cases actually a lot more from the SE quadrant . A classic example of this is the Lower SE of SA around Robe which is famous for producing Ekman Spiral .


Gully winds are just that. Gully winds or katabatic winds. Very common during the warmer months in Adelaide during the summer and also right up the Mt. Lofty Ranges and Flinders for that matter. The prevailing winds do not have to be SE for them to form but that direction does make them stronger. They form when the cooling slopes of the ranges create density gradients with the cooler air falling into the valleys. The winds then blow strongly all night, with occasional strong to even violent gusts at times as hydraulic jumps mix through the surface. They taper off in the day when the sun heats the land and the temp and density gradients get neutralised. The seabreeze then comes in from the SW during the arvo and TURNS SSW to S by evening before moderating and being replaced by the gully wind. The typical gully wind is SE to ESE. But occasionally it can be E to ENE. Much like on very hot days, the Adelaide seabreeze is usually more of a W to WSW and not SW.

The bulk of the Southern Coast of SA in summer get SW-S seabreezes. The prevailing winds are generally SSE to SE when ridges are in the Bight. The Coorong seabreeze is more southerly and works straight up through Victor Harbor before turning SSE later in the day. Only when a strong pressure gradient between the Bight high and an inland trough to the north occurs does the seabreeze get overpowered by the prevailing SE to E flow.

TS cool


Apologies to all for dragging it ( a little ) off topic ...

I was trying to show that the actual coastal line in these sorts of seasons tends to create the entrenched contrast of lows inland and the highs forced south and offshore . This is a resultant of early heat build in the oceans locally , reasultant pressure differentials " lock in " a re-occuring pattern where highs don not establish and if so for very short periods over any part of the southern continent . So although you are looking at actual atmospheric winds , infact it is like large regional surface sea breeze pattern , the mornings entrench in this pattern and weaken to give way to the sea breezes , and when its in full swing and we even see alot of moisture being drawn into Vic from the Pacific , then often winds will swing back cross offshore come night fall . In this regard this becomes Sth - SE Austs' version of the WA coastlines embedded summer coastal trough .

As for the PDO's 30 year cycle ,I don't treat it like an even cycle . I would hazard to guess its probably much more like ENSO . In that one cycle often follows the other as a bounce back transition , but when from Warm to cold it takes longer .
So in regard its opposite to ENSO given that ENSO usually swings violently from ElNino to LaNina , the PDO ( and 1977 ) in particular swings from Cool to Warm fast then the transition back to cool tends to be less dramatic and more of a build up .
And who's to say it won't have a period of mixed 30 year .... Its not necessarily a " black and white " debate ... recent ( 250 years of proxy data / obs ) points out that maybe Cool PDO is the norm and Warm is the anomalie , again opposite to my thoughts on ENSO where the La Nina side of Neutral is the norm and EL Nino the exception ......
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