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#1303684 - 26/01/2015 17:22 Major winter storm for the US Northeast
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5300
While many western parts of the US are continuing to experience extreme warmth and exceptional drought conditions, a potentially historic blizzard/nor'easter looks set to lash the Northeast from Mon to Wed with thundersnow, widespread blowing and drifting snow, very strong wind gusts and some inundation of vulnerable low-lying coastal areas.

The NWS office in Upton, New York is mooting a close to 30hpa drop in central pressure of the surface low (part of their forecast discussion below):

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LIFE THREATENING...HISTORIC WINTER STORM EXPECTED FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING THE INGREDIENTS TOGETHER FOR A
DANGEROUS...HISTORIC BLIZZARD AS A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALOFT NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC MON NIGHT...STALLING SE OF MONTAUK LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. MSLP DROPS NEARLY 30 MB IN 24 HR FROM MON AM TO TUE
AM... BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING.

A running total/accumulated snow depth plume forecast for NYC from the short range ensemble forecast system and probabilities of 3-day accumulated snowfall over 12 inches (30cm) from the NWS below:

https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7323/16369277732_35b25fe781_o.jpg
https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7291/16367954931_c5edeeb6a3_o.jpg




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#1303696 - 26/01/2015 17:52 Re: Major winter storm for the US Northeast [Re: Ken Kato]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Fascinating one from a model point of view, at the start of this weekend a lesser snowstorm made its way across the NE and the models had the Tuesday snow brushing NYC and heading out to sea and having zero effect on the NE (other than freshening the winds) then EC flipped and picked this up then the other models followed. Will be interesting to see the final totals, NYC forecast looks a little overstated though I haven't seen 00z EC yet. Has 19-38 inches as the range for the event, GFS puts it at around 19 inches by my rough calc on the last run. NAM a similar total.

SW Maine (due west of Portland) looks a reasonable bet for around 30, also hints of secondary banding around the mid coast, Camden etc, toward the end of the event.

After this event some extreme cold progged for the NE in the next week or so (after some more snow end of this week)

Will be running lots of webcams when not working at work next day or so....
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1303697 - 26/01/2015 17:56 Re: Major winter storm for the US Northeast [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5300
Funny you mention that Ruckle, the Upton NWS office did mention this in their forecast discussion:

FOLLOWED 12Z NAM/ECMWF CLOSELY...WITH BOTH MODELS SUPPORTING QPF
UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
NOW EXPECTED NOT ONLY ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND/CT BUT ALSO
FARTHER WEST INTO SW CT AND THE NYC METRO AREA/WESTERN LONG
ISLAND...AS MODELS OFTEN DO NOT PLACE THE AREA OF MOST INTENSE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FAR ENOUGH WEST.

I'll also be watching the Times Sq and other webcams with interest as well.

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#1303718 - 26/01/2015 19:33 Re: Major winter storm for the US Northeast [Re: Ken Kato]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
EC has come in much higher for NYC than NAM or GFS. Has around mid 20's (inches) for the mid coast of Maine which is similar to the other models.

Onto the web cams. Quite a selection for times square, depending on the time of day I find the 47th and Broad and the Crossroads to be the best two to watch for snow intensity etc.

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/?cam=tsrobo1
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1303719 - 26/01/2015 19:40 Re: Major winter storm for the US Northeast [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5300
Yep that's one of my favourites (apart from Torchcam on the Statue of Liberty). They also come in handy for when there's severe thunderstorms there. There used to be one outside Friday's as well but not sure what happened to that one.

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#1303728 - 26/01/2015 20:18 Re: Major winter storm for the US Northeast [Re: Ken Kato]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Updated forecast for the "city" has a more realistic and still huge 26 inches as the high end. 38 did seem a bit silly, be funny if it went over 30 now.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1303889 - 27/01/2015 09:58 Re: Major winter storm for the US Northeast [Re: Ken Kato]
Pharbelle Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/04/2013
Posts: 119
Loc: Burrum Heads , Qld
Just received a message from a major medical diagnostic supplier in Westbrook, Maine, apologising for longer than usual or no replies to orders/queries due to the severe weather they are expecting soon.

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#1303998 - 27/01/2015 17:20 Re: Major winter storm for the US Northeast [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5300
Meanwhile further upstream over western parts of the Midwest on the warm side of the jet, some truly amazing midwinter forecast temps. For example, forecast of 24C for Oklahoma City on Wed (Jan average is 10C) which is almost equal to Cairns' average Jul max temp. Meanwhile in Denver, forecast is for 21C on Tue (their Jan average is 8C).

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#1304073 - 27/01/2015 21:28 Re: Major winter storm for the US Northeast [Re: Ken Kato]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Going to be interesting to see the totals, 1am NYC time Central Park was only up to 6 inches, however right at that time was when it unloaded for an hour or so - was great viewing on the cam,been pretty light since. Much more on Long Island and New England. Going t be some interesting totals in Eastern Mass and also Maine. Speaking of which, Portland getting poleaxed now.

http://archive.wcsh6.com/weather/gallery/outdoors/weather_cams/default.aspx
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1304074 - 27/01/2015 21:40 Re: Major winter storm for the US Northeast [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5300
Boston always (read: often) does well out of noreasters even when NYC doesn't deliver much.

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#1304084 - 27/01/2015 22:16 Re: Major winter storm for the US Northeast [Re: Ken Kato]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Yeah NYC forecast for today (tues) now 2-4 inches.

Living up to the hype in Eastern New England though

615am and website I posted just above showing wild wx in Portland with plenty to come.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1304143 - 28/01/2015 08:13 Re: Major winter storm for the US Northeast [Re: Ken Kato]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Just over 8 inches in Manhattan, 3-4 inches in Jersey Burbs but over 20 on the eastern half of Long Island.

Maine still getting smacked so totals will be interesting, still snowing in Eastern Mass, a few locales have already clocked 30 inches.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1304199 - 28/01/2015 14:25 Re: Major winter storm for the US Northeast [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5300
Indeed, would've been interesting if the westernmost heavy snow banding has creeped just a little further west over Manhattan. Snow depth from NOAA as at 10am AEDT this morning:

https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7437/16383604741_3f49e6e13a_o.png


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#1304210 - 28/01/2015 15:36 Re: Major winter storm for the US Northeast [Re: Ken Kato]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 6003
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Hello Folks:

Just looking at the METAR readings from atop Mount Washington, NH from earlier today (Tue.):

At 11:54AM EST, the Temperature was 0F/-17.7C; Winds were ENE at 91MPH and gusting to 107MPH (146.5KPH/172.3KPH)!!! Snow, Blowing Snow & Freezing Fog, Visibility near 0. Wind Chill of -38F/-38.8C.
Winds were also gusting 100MPH+ at the 9:47AM & 10:49AM observations as well. Kinda Windy!

Kind Wishes & Take Care~~~Wet Snow

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#1304212 - 28/01/2015 15:39 Re: Major winter storm for the US Northeast [Re: Ken Kato]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Still snowing in Maine and NEw Hampshire. Going to be reasonably hefty total (already is)

Hee hee Wet Snow, a bit nippy up there.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1304359 - 29/01/2015 08:05 Re: Major winter storm for the US Northeast [Re: Ken Kato]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Ended up widespread 20+ inches in SW and W Maine, 2ft in Portland itself and a few spots over 30 inches in SW Maine and adjacent parts of NH to go along with similar falls in parts of Eastern Mass.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?...0&highlight=off

Winter Storm Watch for the next one in the next day or so - good times for them.


Edited by Ruckle (29/01/2015 08:06)
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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