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#1304375 - 29/01/2015 09:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - 25/1/2015 - 2/2/2015 Thunderstorms and Showers [Re: Steve O]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4792
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 2.0mm.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95)Nov16.8(109)YTD888.4(1037.4),

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#1304437 - 29/01/2015 14:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - 25/1/2015 - 2/2/2015 Thunderstorms and Showers [Re: Steve O]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10454
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
A few brief showers yesterday afternoon contributed to the 4.0mm in the 24 hours to 9am this morning.
It looks like an upper trough could trigger some showers/storms about coastal parts of NENSW during tomorrow night and the early hours of Saturday morning?
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2018 Rainfall: 74.8mm (November Avg. 115.2mm) // November 2018 Raindays: 9 (November Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1297.8mm (Jan-Nov Avg. 1357.1mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 120 (Jan-Nov Avg. 124.6 raindays)

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#1304457 - 29/01/2015 15:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - 25/1/2015 - 2/2/2015 Thunderstorms and Showers [Re: Steve O]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 458
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Interesting GFS00z run update just came inline with Access-G with a similar cyclone just off the SE QLD coast scenario...


Edited by Squeako_88 (29/01/2015 16:00)
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#1304470 - 29/01/2015 16:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - 25/1/2015 - 2/2/2015 Thunderstorms and Showers [Re: Squeako_88]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2225
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Interesting GFS00z run update just came inline with Access-G with a similar cyclone just off the SE QLD coast scenario...


I was very sceptical until now. Access-G and GFS seem to be in alignment now, although I haven't had a closer look.

That being said, a lot has to go right for this to happen. I also can't remember the last time the models had a cyclone track correct this far out from an event...

I imagine that if this cyclone hit anywhere north of Brisbane (SEQ, WBB), there would be a good chance of severe flooding. The catchments were primed by the low we had last week. It reminds me of a reverse 2011 Oswald/follow-up rain event.


Edited by Nature's Fury (29/01/2015 16:42)

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#1304472 - 29/01/2015 16:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - 25/1/2015 - 2/2/2015 Thunderstorms and Showers [Re: Steve O]
Storm within Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/11/2013
Posts: 351
Loc: Morayfield
I'm keeping a close eye on it as well Squeako. It may not eventuate but it sure is interesting!
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#1304490 - 29/01/2015 17:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - 25/1/2015 - 2/2/2015 Thunderstorms and Showers [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7272
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
That being said, a lot has to go right for this to happen.


My thoughts exactly.

On another note, I'm not sure why we're discussing it in this thread given it has nothing to do with the past week's bout of storms. Probably better off discussing it in the SEQ day to day thread for now.

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#1304496 - 29/01/2015 17:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - 25/1/2015 - 2/2/2015 Thunderstorms and Showers [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3278
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea there ain't much going on here, might aswell end the date today Seabreeze for this thread.

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#1304532 - 29/01/2015 19:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - 25/1/2015 - 2/2/2015 Thunderstorms and Showers [Re: Steve O]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10454
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Yea there ain't much going on here, might aswell end the date today Seabreeze for this thread.
Nocturnal storms aren't completely out of the question for coastal NENSW tomorrow night and perhaps once again the night after that, but I'll just leave a note here below to avoid confusion:

To discuss the low / potential TC that is shown by some models to potentially near SEQLD, please do it in either in the SEQLD/NENSW day-to-day thread or the Tropical Low 99P thread in the Tropical Lows & Cyclones section. Thanks. smile
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2018 Rainfall: 74.8mm (November Avg. 115.2mm) // November 2018 Raindays: 9 (November Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1297.8mm (Jan-Nov Avg. 1357.1mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 120 (Jan-Nov Avg. 124.6 raindays)

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#1304569 - 29/01/2015 21:31 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - 25/1/2015 - 2/2/2015 Thunderstorms and Showers [Re: Steve O]
buster Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/09/2006
Posts: 438
Loc: Kalbar (near Boonah) SEQ
No Steve O, don't end it yet....hehe. Couple of photogenic little cells still floating around our valley this evening. Even heard a rumble of thunder just now, though I haven't spotted any lightning. Not sure how they are forming. Little instability, poor shear. Beats me.



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#1304575 - 29/01/2015 21:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - 25/1/2015 - 2/2/2015 Thunderstorms and Showers [Re: Steve O]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 845
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Gotta be the storm Capital of S.E Qld where you are there though mate!

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#1304580 - 29/01/2015 22:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - 25/1/2015 - 2/2/2015 Thunderstorms and Showers [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3278
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Haha cool, I saw some cumulus cloud this arvo and even had a few spits clouds looked pretty good almost like those photos but not as good around Sunnybank as I drove home to Yatala. It sorta looked promising but thought to my self.. Nah couldn't be. Anyway let's keep the ball rolling, nice photos Buster. smile


Edited by Steve O (29/01/2015 22:04)

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#1304590 - 29/01/2015 22:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - 25/1/2015 - 2/2/2015 Thunderstorms and Showers [Re: Steve O]
Asturai Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/07/2014
Posts: 459
Loc: West Narangba
I also saw a few large black clouds to my west this afternoon, but they didn't do anything.

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#1304703 - 30/01/2015 15:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - 25/1/2015 - 2/2/2015 Thunderstorms and Showers [Re: Steve O]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3360
Loc: Buderim
117mm in Beachmere overnight. And evidently not an error as some other 25-50mm and a couple over 50mm falls from Redcliffe to Maroochydore but only very coastal.

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#1304748 - 30/01/2015 20:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - 25/1/2015 - 2/2/2015 Thunderstorms and Showers [Re: Steve O]
Storm within Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/11/2013
Posts: 351
Loc: Morayfield
I did not hear any of this rain last night! It didn't even seem that wet this morning. I wouldn't be surprised if we somehow missed out.
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Don't knock the weather. If it didn't change once in awhile, 9 out of 10 people would have nothing to start a conversation with.

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#1304756 - 30/01/2015 20:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - 25/1/2015 - 2/2/2015 Thunderstorms and Showers [Re: Storm within]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1647
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
I got 13mm here during the night. Mostly between 1am and 2am.
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#1304774 - 30/01/2015 22:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - 25/1/2015 - 2/2/2015 Thunderstorms and Showers [Re: Steve O]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10454
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
There have been a few faint rumblings of thunder from a storm to our north. A couple of showers west and south from here too. You could see the lower level moisture improving and being pumped in from around late afternoon with low level clouds moving in from the NE.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2018 Rainfall: 74.8mm (November Avg. 115.2mm) // November 2018 Raindays: 9 (November Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1297.8mm (Jan-Nov Avg. 1357.1mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 120 (Jan-Nov Avg. 124.6 raindays)

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#1304782 - 30/01/2015 23:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - 25/1/2015 - 2/2/2015 Thunderstorms and Showers [Re: Steve O]
Weather Nerd Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/02/2010
Posts: 87
Loc: Wamuran QLD
We got 21mm here in wam last night
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#1304867 - 31/01/2015 13:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - 25/1/2015 - 2/2/2015 Thunderstorms and Showers [Re: Steve O]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10454
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
A few storms and showers are popping up over NENSW and parts of SEQLD's Granite Belt / Darling Downs. Looks like a reasonable cell passing over the Northern Beaches of Coffs at the moment.

BOM have just put out a STW, covering the NENSW coast from the border down to just north of Port Macquarie.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for LARGE HAILSTONES, HEAVY RAINFALL and DAMAGING WIND
For people in the Northern Rivers and parts of the Mid North Coast and Northern Tablelands Forecast Districts.
Issued at 1:53 pm Saturday, 31 January 2015.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce large hailstones, heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Lismore, Grafton, Coffs Harbour, Tenterfield, Ballina, Casino, Kyogle, Yamba, Maclean, Woolgoolga, Sawtell and Dorrigo.

(http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN65156.shtml)


Edited by Seabreeze (31/01/2015 14:03)
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2018 Rainfall: 74.8mm (November Avg. 115.2mm) // November 2018 Raindays: 9 (November Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1297.8mm (Jan-Nov Avg. 1357.1mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 120 (Jan-Nov Avg. 124.6 raindays)

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#1304890 - 31/01/2015 15:30 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - 25/1/2015 - 2/2/2015 Thunderstorms and Showers [Re: Steve O]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10454
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Latest STW update mentions 'Storm spotter just north of Woolgoolga reported golf ball sized hail (about 4.2cm) at 2:40pm.'
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2018 Rainfall: 74.8mm (November Avg. 115.2mm) // November 2018 Raindays: 9 (November Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1297.8mm (Jan-Nov Avg. 1357.1mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 120 (Jan-Nov Avg. 124.6 raindays)

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#1304894 - 31/01/2015 15:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW - 25/1/2015 - 2/2/2015 Thunderstorms and Showers [Re: Steve O]
martyface Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 91
Loc: Bellbowrie
Hmmm maybe people are busy with voting or just general weekend stuff but the radar is looking pretty good! Few black cores about...fingers crossed i get one of them!

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