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#1297280 - 08/01/2015 12:36 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17593
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Heading up towards Burra and can see clean towers to the north where cells are now firing

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#1298279 - 10/01/2015 12:47 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
There is not much point in continuing to post in this thread if people are not going to show an active interest in heavy rainfall events or the likelihood of flooding around/affecting different areas of the country. This monologue of trying to get active participation has been getting waring. The reason I started this thread in the first place was to expand discussion/our knowledge base.

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#1298324 - 10/01/2015 14:38 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17593
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Lol.... Naz, people are very interested in these events but generally participate in the relevant threads.

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#1298336 - 10/01/2015 15:10 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14966
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Keep posting your obs mate, I always do read (and you know me) and take an interest in what is going on, especially when it comes to big rainfalls.

TS cool

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#1298387 - 10/01/2015 17:53 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Ok perhaps I misinterpreted in some way. I understand your points, that's fair enough smile - I can continue posting, however it will be based mainly around significant weather events or periods. Thanks for your feedback.

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#1298395 - 10/01/2015 18:27 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1873
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Yes I read all your posts Cosmic cheers ,I think a lot of people read your posts and maybe we should post here, We seem to discuss it in other threads blush .
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1298557 - 11/01/2015 11:45 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: ozone doug
Yes I read all your posts Cosmic cheers ,I think a lot of people read your posts and maybe we should post here, We seem to discuss it in other threads blush .

I don't have any objections to people posting in relevant state/territory based threads smile ... I've simply put forward this thread as an invite, and perhaps that's what I needed to factor in.

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#1298609 - 11/01/2015 14:49 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Max/Min: 39/19 to 13/11 over 4 days gives 39.1 mm.
Based on forecast wind direction (east Tuesday morning, Bureau) might get somewhere between 5 and 40 mm by Tuesday morning [11th-13th] (i.e. areas of moderate rain).

Potential week total 80 mm – minor surface run-off, although given the lack of rain since late July last year, that’s probably something.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (11/01/2015 14:50)

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#1299482 - 14/01/2015 21:33 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
15.2 mm 12 am 13th to midnight 14th brings weekly total to 54.3 since the 7th, minor surface run-off/puddles.

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#1300725 - 18/01/2015 20:51 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Max/Min: 39/19 to 13/11 over 4 days gives 39.1 mm.
Based on forecast wind direction (east Tuesday morning, Bureau) might get somewhere between 5 and 40 mm by Tuesday morning [11th-13th] (i.e. areas of moderate rain).

Potential week total 80 mm – minor surface run-off, although given the lack of rain since late July last year, that’s probably something.

Bold - The gradual decline in max/min and the diurnal range effectively constituted a change in pattern from what I can tell; it has become more zonal.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (18/01/2015 20:56)

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#1302133 - 21/01/2015 22:33 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Somewhere between Mackay and Carmila on the mid QLD coast is likely to experience rainfall over the next 12-24 hours which will significantly contribute to soil moisture, and then direct surface run-off into local streams. The probability of heavy or excessive rainfall is high [Bureau].

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#1303264 - 25/01/2015 16:16 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
1302133 – 21-01-2015 10:33 PM:

Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Somewhere between Mackay and Carmila on the mid QLD coast is likely to experience rainfall over the next 12-24 hours which will significantly contribute to soil moisture, and then direct surface run-off into local streams. The probability of heavy or excessive rainfall is high [Bureau].

Falls in 48 hours to 9 am [local time] on the 23rd of January near Mackay:
E.g. Pioneer: ~ 100-150 mm; Proserpine: ~ 50-200 mm.

Revision – additional falls further south around Brisbane (e.g. Coolangatta). Widespread heavy falls in this region.

23-01-2015 10:40 PM:

Approximately 48 hours later and the latest river heights for Teviot Bk at Boonah [Bureau] show flood waters approaching major flood level. This [dramatic] change in flow has occurred in less than 12 hours and appears to be very linear. One can only assume this catchment region is now more than saturated. Falls to 9 pm [local time] over the last 36 hours have many sites to the north and south of Brisbane recording 100-250 mm. Several flow sites across QLD have reached minor flood level recently.

The low currently appears to be clipping coastal fringes near Coolangatta, possibly generating more falls of 20-40 mm or so.

[Coolangatta AWS falls 9 pm 23rd to 12 pm 24th: 29.6 mm.]

23-01-2015 11:20 PM:

River height for Teviot Bk at Boonah reached 5.3 metres before beginning to subside.

The Following Day to 9 am:

Highest 24-hour rainfall total [in the Nerang Catchment area] was 287 mm (347 over 48 hours) at Tallebudgera Ck Mouth AL. Coolangatta AWS recorded 231 mm in the same 48-hour period.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (25/01/2015 16:24)

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#1303518 - 26/01/2015 05:48 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Roberto Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/01/2015
Posts: 3
What do you think about this lightnings map? http://lightandmaps.blogspot.com


Edited by Roberto (26/01/2015 05:49)

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#1305066 - 01/02/2015 12:05 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
18th of January 2015:

Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Max/Min: 39/19 to 13/11 over 4 days gives 39.1 mm.
Based on forecast wind direction (east Tuesday morning, Bureau) might get somewhere between 5 and 40 mm by Tuesday morning [11th-13th] (i.e. areas of moderate rain).

Potential week total 80 mm – minor surface run-off, although given the lack of rain since late July last year, that’s probably something.

Bold - The gradual decline in max/min and the diurnal range effectively constituted a change in pattern from what I can tell; it has become more zonal.

For information only:

My understanding is the phasic nature of the southern rossby-wave can be a key indicator of what the amplitude of the next passing frontal system is likely to be.

A zonal wind pattern (in Summer) can mean higher-latitude rossby-wave activity, with the development of ridging [south-to-south-easterly winds] over SA, generating light, intermittent shower activity with little or no significant rain, until troughs re-establish. The impact on summer-time temperatures in the south-east quadrant [of the country] can be marked if the winds are polar- or southern-maritime in origin. Based on these dynamics, a stronger zonal pattern brings a risk of severe frontal weather.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (01/02/2015 12:07)

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#1305993 - 06/02/2015 20:26 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
For information only:

My understanding is the phasic nature of the southern rossby-wave can be a key indicator of what the amplitude of the next passing frontal system is likely to be.

A zonal wind pattern (in Summer) can mean higher-latitude rossby-wave activity, with the development of ridging [south-to-south-easterly winds] over SA, generating light, intermittent shower activity with little or no significant rain, until troughs re-establish. The impact on summer-time temperatures in the south-east quadrant [of the country] can be marked if the winds are polar- or southern-maritime in origin. Based on these dynamics, a stronger zonal pattern brings a risk of severe frontal weather.

An exception to this is the subsidence of tropical continental or tropical maritime air masses across inland Victoria and New South Wales if the southern rossby-wave is split by ridging from the west, generating an upper low. In such a case temperatures may hike to 35-40 degrees C. This upper low can also impact on the thickness [making it shallower].


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (06/02/2015 20:27)

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#1306290 - 07/02/2015 21:34 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Trial Independent, Experimental Rainfall Forecast – Period 4 weeks (valid 18th of January to 18th of February 2015).

Based on the changing dynamics of the current zonal pattern across Southern Australia [18th of January 2015], the current lower-probability rainfall period (< 20%) can be expected to shift to an easterly and then northerly wind pattern (across the Southeast Quadrant by week ending 7th of February). There is a chance of increased rainfall probability in this quadrant with ESE winds during the night with a lower temperature profile (15-10 minimum after 35 during the day, circa 11th of February). As winds then shift north-easterly and more northerly, this probability is likely to sharply decline, to be broken by trough activity and a southerly change.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (07/02/2015 21:40)

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#1306623 - 08/02/2015 20:52 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
8th of February 2015:
Mulgrave River at Gordonvale near Cairns reached major flood level earlier today [14.40 metres @ 10:59 08/02/2015 local time, before starting to subside], with falls in excess of 300 mm recorded locally (24 hours to 9 am). A major flood warning was issued at 11 am EST by Bureau. The Bureau is also forecasting 95% probability of 60 to 150 mm for the Cairns area tomorrow:

Forecast issued at 4:31 pm EST on Sunday 8 February 2015 [for Monday].

Quote:
Heavy falls exceeding 280 mm possible. Winds southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

…with a significant dew point (max/min 29/24).
Bold Added.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (08/02/2015 21:00)

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#1306772 - 09/02/2015 22:22 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
8th of February 2015:
Mulgrave River at Gordonvale near Cairns reached major flood level earlier today [14.40 metres @ 10:59 08/02/2015 local time, before starting to subside], with falls in excess of 300 mm recorded locally (24 hours to 9 am). A major flood warning was issued at 11 am EST by Bureau. The Bureau is also forecasting 95% probability of 60 to 150 mm for the Cairns area tomorrow:

Forecast issued at 4:31 pm EST on Sunday 8 February 2015 [for Monday].

Quote:
Heavy falls exceeding 280 mm possible. Winds southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

…with a significant dew point (max/min 29/24).
Bold Added.

A secondary flow peak was reached [at around 10 am local time] at Gordonvale at minor flood level today, with 99 mm to 9 am, after 282 the previous 24-hours [Bureau]. Higher rainfall totals recorded near Peets Bridge (470, 48 hours).

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#1306869 - 10/02/2015 19:27 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Just so I’m very clear about this, the trial forecast can involve some ACCESS-G and GFS model run observations as well as in field [where models don’t go out that far]. The trial model is not prognostic, but concurrent. The only variable which is prognostic (for rainfall) is precipitable water at 1 month delay. It can give a rough idea of how far away a change in dew point is.

Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Trial Independent, Experimental Rainfall Forecast – Period 4 weeks (valid 18th of January to 18th of February 2015).
[…]
As winds then shift north-easterly and more northerly, this probability is likely to sharply decline [1], to be broken by trough activity [2] and a southerly change [3].

[] Changed.

This is off ACCESS-G observations:
[1]: Friday, 13th of February (hot to very hot).
[2]: Saturday, 14th of February (trough activity).
[3]: Sunday, 15th of February (southerly change).
[4]: Wednesday, 18th of February (possible second southerly change, with trough activity).

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#1308048 - 15/02/2015 14:17 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
This is off ACCESS-G observations:
[1]: Friday, 13th of February (hot to very hot).
[2]: Saturday, 14th of February (trough activity).
[3]: Sunday, 15th of February (southerly change).
[4]: Wednesday, 18th of February (possible second southerly change, with trough activity).

Hot to very hot in northern parts of the quadrant [Adelaide area – 13th and 14th with NNE winds, surface], trough activity in southern parts, higher dew points [Melbourne 14th, with WSW winds 500 hPa]. Some rainfall totals near Melbourne exceeded 50 mm in the 24-hours to 9 am local time [14th].

Southerly change due ~ this afternoon smile .


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (15/02/2015 14:18)

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