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#1308793 - 17/02/2015 22:01 NSW - Possible East Coast Rain Event 19/2 to 22/2/2015 (non-event)
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1988
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Looks like a tropical low is going to move down the East coast of NE NSW and maybe down into central areas as well from this Thursday on,with a Easterly wind stream under the system,if this system does adventurate the coast and inland to ranges should see some heavy rain periods at times,


Edited by Seabreeze (22/02/2015 11:08)
Edit Reason: added non-event to title for future reference
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#1308894 - 18/02/2015 09:03 Re: NSW - Possible East Coast Rain Event 19/2 to 22/2/2015 (non-event) [Re: Stormy3]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Sure will be interesting to see who gets it and how much. North Coast may be in for a pizzling. smile

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#1308952 - 18/02/2015 11:26 Re: NSW - Possible East Coast Rain Event 19/2 to 22/2/2015 (non-event) [Re: Stormy3]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2202
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Originally Posted By: Stormy3
if this system does adventurate the coast


Is 'adventurate' a perfectly cromulent word?
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#1308979 - 18/02/2015 12:19 Re: NSW - Possible East Coast Rain Event 19/2 to 22/2/2015 (non-event) [Re: Stormy3]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Perhaps "eventuate" smile

Has the potential to do a bit. Shame it probably won't push over to the NWS&P areas. Lot's of places up there, especially west of Narrabri need a very big drink.

I suspect the impact won't be much down south but who knows which way it will go.

In the 70's (living in Quirindi) systems like this that crossed inland gave big rain and of course flooding. They would probably like to see that again.

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#1308985 - 18/02/2015 12:26 Re: NSW - Possible East Coast Rain Event 19/2 to 22/2/2015 (non-event) [Re: Stormy3]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
If this tropical low/potential Cat 1 headed right down the coast to Sydney like Oswald did, it would certainly maintain some strength given the soupy SSTs around. I think it's forecast to exit towards NZ though, once it crosses about 30S.

At this stage I think it will be more a NE NSW event as Dave says and of course SEQ.

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#1308990 - 18/02/2015 12:36 Re: NSW - Possible East Coast Rain Event 19/2 to 22/2/2015 (non-event) [Re: Stormy3]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The models seem to be keeping most of the rain up North at this stage. It is interesting to see that the BOM expects the system to develop into a tropical cyclone that will cross the coast near Gladstone tomorrow night, track S-SE inland for a couple of days and maybe escape into the Tasman near Evans Head.

I suppose anything could happen but the forecast for Newcastle, Sydney and Wollongong just calls for 'showers' or 'shower or two' at this stage.

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#1309094 - 18/02/2015 16:33 Re: NSW - Possible East Coast Rain Event 19/2 to 22/2/2015 (non-event) [Re: Stormy3]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
BOM have really backed away from this event this afternoon - well, for the Sydney region anyway.

Homer

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#1309138 - 18/02/2015 18:07 Re: NSW - Possible East Coast Rain Event 19/2 to 22/2/2015 (non-event) [Re: Stormy3]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
I'm not really looking forward to this event too much because it just looks like we will just be getting dribs and drabs. I wish we got a direct hit by this low so we can get a break from this incredibly boring weather.

I guess I still have a bit of optimism- as things can change. smile
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#1309568 - 19/02/2015 06:30 Re: NSW - Possible East Coast Rain Event 19/2 to 22/2/2015 (non-event) [Re: Stormy3]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
It's very dark to my east and NE and a check of radar suggests that I could be in for some moderate and possibly locally heavy showers very soon.

PS: It's amazing how much anticipation there is for TC Marcia!!! Looks like it will make landfall somewhere north of Bundaberg, judging by the satellite pic.


Edited by Sea-Mist (19/02/2015 06:33)
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#1309581 - 19/02/2015 07:02 Re: NSW - Possible East Coast Rain Event 19/2 to 22/2/2015 (non-event) [Re: Stormy3]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
And the forecast was for a possible shower, and the written forecast said there is a medium (50%) chance of showers today.... Absolutely pelting down here with more to come. Lol @ BoM laugh
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#1309645 - 19/02/2015 08:37 Re: NSW - Possible East Coast Rain Event 19/2 to 22/2/2015 (non-event) [Re: Stormy3]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
Just had a moderate 10 min shower here where I'm working at Concord West. Showers appear to be the order of the day.

Homer.

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#1309707 - 19/02/2015 10:23 Re: NSW - Possible East Coast Rain Event 19/2 to 22/2/2015 (non-event) [Re: Stormy3]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1988
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
See what happens how much rain out of this system we might get down here a deluge or nothing.


https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7443/16386307820_f6b019ac40_o.png
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Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1310260 - 19/02/2015 18:48 Re: NSW - Possible East Coast Rain Event 19/2 to 22/2/2015 (non-event) [Re: Stormy3]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5506
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Gee it's all happening in here!!
Newcastle radar suggest some heavy showers right on the coast around Port Stephens, but there's nothing but fresh air there, stuff further offshore could be a bit dubious too!!

It's been a mostly cloudy day with very warm moist north east breeze.
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#1310292 - 19/02/2015 19:02 Re: NSW - Possible East Coast Rain Event 19/2 to 22/2/2015 (non-event) [Re: Stormy3]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
It certainly is all happening here aye!!

Anyway, there were a few morning showers and it was a cloudy afternoon.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1310302 - 19/02/2015 19:07 Re: NSW - Possible East Coast Rain Event 19/2 to 22/2/2015 (non-event) [Re: Stormy3]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5506
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Forgot to mention the surf is starting to look nice and heavy, shame about the red weed about!!
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#1310340 - 19/02/2015 19:25 Re: NSW - Possible East Coast Rain Event 19/2 to 22/2/2015 (non-event) [Re: Stormy3]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
I haven't seen the surf here yet. I assume it is probably building nicely, particularly at the NE facing beaches. I bet not seeing the surf will be one thing that you will miss living in Canberra!!

Geez almost 800 people online!! smile
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#1311067 - 20/02/2015 05:43 Re: NSW - Possible East Coast Rain Event 19/2 to 22/2/2015 (non-event) [Re: Stormy3]
Flodge Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2010
Posts: 116
Loc: Camden, NSW
There's a decent rain band over Coffs at the moment - plenty of rain behind it too. I'm guessing that would be the start of 'festivities' on the north coast?

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#1311537 - 20/02/2015 12:24 Re: NSW - Possible East Coast Rain Event 19/2 to 22/2/2015 (non-event) [Re: Stormy3]
rain gauge Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/02/2006
Posts: 4556
Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
Showers streaming down through NSW now. Getting some short sharp showers here on the central coast
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#1311819 - 20/02/2015 15:18 Re: NSW - Possible East Coast Rain Event 19/2 to 22/2/2015 (non-event) [Re: Stormy3]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1988
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Showers streaming down through NSW now,a blob to the NE and N of the Hunter moving south,looks like we will get some light to moderate rain later,might be heavier tomorrow,


Edited by Stormy3 (20/02/2015 15:19)
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Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1312122 - 20/02/2015 22:01 Re: NSW - Possible East Coast Rain Event 19/2 to 22/2/2015 (non-event) [Re: Stormy3]
Stormyjim Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2015
Posts: 60
Loc: Camden
Very humid and muggy in Sydney today. Just standing there and ur thirty and forehead is dripping wet. This thread is pretty boring . I'm thinking because no one knows or will give their opinion on wat is going to happen with the local weather in and around Sydney
Please voice your opinions to get this thread going . Personally I think we will get more rain then the models forecast . But that's my opinion!! Wats everyone else think ??

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