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#1312755 - 22/02/2015 15:16 Re: SA- Showers and potential thunderstorms Feb 21 - Feb 22 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1598
Loc: Bridgewater
melb is having all the fun

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#1312760 - 22/02/2015 15:28 Re: SA- Showers and potential thunderstorms Feb 21 - Feb 22 [Re: StormCapture]
kgb007 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/12/2010
Posts: 1511
Loc: Hope Valley, SA
All forming on back of ranges and drifting off east as per usual, few bolts out that cell south! Next system!

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#1312794 - 22/02/2015 16:03 Re: SA- Showers and potential thunderstorms Feb 21 - Feb 22 [Re: StormCapture]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
Yeah, even Optimistic Olaf has had several shakes of the head at this mornings Models (after I posted earlier...) having said that..

Latest GFS a little more encouraging with 2 areas to watch.

First is the next few hours with SFC based convection, as we have seen cells fire over the ranges already, our window is now onwards with some fresh convection going up over YP, the gulf, And NW of the city, a good sign...

Second is overnight with Nocturnal Cooling, most likely after midnight onwards for Adelaide but keep a close on what develops later on over EP as this is our delivery zone (some build up there last couple of frames)...

Slight chances but better than nothing, there is still hope grin

Latest Aviation mirrors my thoughts and obs...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS E OF Pt Augusta/Cape Jervis TILL 10:30pm.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING W OF Kimba/KI FROM 10:30pm
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#1312817 - 22/02/2015 16:32 Re: SA- Showers and potential thunderstorms Feb 21 - Feb 22 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17498
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Yer doesn't look too bad for nocturnal stuff. My only worry is it dying off before it gets here.

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#1312822 - 22/02/2015 16:44 Re: SA- Showers and potential thunderstorms Feb 21 - Feb 22 [Re: StormCapture]
Skysthelimit Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2008
Posts: 1113
Loc: Gladstone Sth Aust
...and we have thunder here at Happy Rock smile

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#1312831 - 22/02/2015 16:59 Re: SA- Showers and potential thunderstorms Feb 21 - Feb 22 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1644
Loc: Uleybury
BoM dropped the storms for tonight yet there are a few around the place, still going for Monday Morning.

Friday upped to 37 before going down.

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#1312873 - 22/02/2015 18:47 Re: SA- Showers and potential thunderstorms Feb 21 - Feb 22 [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2108
Loc: Clare, SA
One near Clare aint bad really, dad reckons Clare itself had thunder for nearly an hour. Can thank the sea breeze for those cells. The innitial downburst must have been decent, it has kicked out a substancial OFB which is pushing wsw from area. Also looks like a weak OFB originating from the lakes and is moving slowly nnw towards the back of the hills, might kick up some stronger convection (big maybe haha).

Ah a better look sees a very impresivve curved OFB from the Blyth cells pushing south and kicking up those new cells pushing south towards Gawler way.


Edited by Markus (22/02/2015 18:51)
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#1312878 - 22/02/2015 19:14 Re: SA- Showers and potential thunderstorms Feb 21 - Feb 22 [Re: Markus]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
Originally Posted By: Markus
The innitial downburst must have been decent, it has kicked out a substancial OFB which is pushing wsw from area. Also looks like a weak OFB originating from the lakes and is moving slowly nnw towards the back of the hills, might kick up some stronger convection (big maybe haha).


Yeah both clearly visible on the doppler, be interesting to see if they do develop closer to city and hills...
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�I�d keep playing. I don�t think the heavy stuff�s gonna come down for quite awhile.� Bill Murray

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#1312881 - 22/02/2015 19:32 Re: SA- Showers and potential thunderstorms Feb 21 - Feb 22 [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2108
Loc: Clare, SA
OFB's from the mid north cells composed of two boundaries. The one charging through Mallala actually looks pretty vigorous. Wonder if it collides with the southern, if it will quickly shoot up a cell. Always a joy watching these things interact.
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#1312885 - 22/02/2015 19:46 Re: SA- Showers and potential thunderstorms Feb 21 - Feb 22 [Re: StormCapture]
Skysthelimit Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2008
Posts: 1113
Loc: Gladstone Sth Aust
The active cells late this afternoon at Gladstone and Georgetown

][/url]

][/url]

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#1312888 - 22/02/2015 19:58 Re: SA- Showers and potential thunderstorms Feb 21 - Feb 22 [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2108
Loc: Clare, SA
39km gust and 4.5 degree temp drop in Roseworthy from it. Not bad.

Nice one Nick smile
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#1312912 - 22/02/2015 21:27 Re: SA- Showers and potential thunderstorms Feb 21 - Feb 22 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1598
Loc: Bridgewater
when the cool change coming?
dont tell me its already here

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#1312915 - 22/02/2015 21:45 Re: SA- Showers and potential thunderstorms Feb 21 - Feb 22 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17498
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
We are in the southerly already.... just will prob take most the night to cool down proper... Min of 20C will be only in the morning...

Latest aviation for those wondering...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING W OF Kimba/KROWS FROM 12Z EXTENDING TO BE SW OF Port Neill/Millicent BY 15Z AND SW OF Port Augusta/Lameroo BY 22Z.

Which would suggest maybe about 18Z for here.... might be better to set the alarm for 3 or so and see if anything is on its way....

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#1312953 - 23/02/2015 08:18 Re: SA- Showers and potential thunderstorms Feb 21 - Feb 22 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17498
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
didn't bother and glad I didn't lol.... looks like there was a bit of activity over Pt Lincoln way and lower YP and KI but that's about it...
move along.... frown

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#1313011 - 23/02/2015 12:56 Re: SA- Showers and potential thunderstorms Feb 21 - Feb 22 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1598
Loc: Bridgewater
2 page thread. no showers, no thunder storms.
smile

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#1313024 - 23/02/2015 13:35 Re: SA- Showers and potential thunderstorms Feb 21 - Feb 22 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1598
Loc: Bridgewater
look at melb radar@!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

wow!!!!!

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#1313029 - 23/02/2015 13:59 Re: SA- Showers and potential thunderstorms Feb 21 - Feb 22 [Re: StormCapture]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1885
Loc: Semaphore SA
Pretty crazy thunderstorm warning -
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#1313048 - 23/02/2015 15:04 Re: SA- Showers and potential thunderstorms Feb 21 - Feb 22 [Re: StormCapture]
kgb007 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/12/2010
Posts: 1511
Loc: Hope Valley, SA
Now that's something to get excited about, couple of Adelaide WZ members are over in Melb for the Avalon Airshow! Maybe they got pics? At least they will have their storm itch soothed for awhile!

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#1313050 - 23/02/2015 15:13 Re: SA- Showers and potential thunderstorms Feb 21 - Feb 22 [Re: StormCapture]
SUPER CELL Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/10/2007
Posts: 944
Loc: ALBERT PARK
Doesn't that just s##t your off!!!! Far too many time a trough goes over us with next to nothing, then BAM!!!! ALL OVER VIC AND NSW. There is a good explanation for this right? By the look of it they had a cold front just below them that may have helped trigger it all?
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#1313104 - 23/02/2015 17:18 Re: SA- Showers and potential thunderstorms Feb 21 - Feb 22 [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2108
Loc: Clare, SA
It's usually just the moisture thing. They're closer to the eastern seaboard which is a great source of moisture. The lay of the land over there tends to promote the formation of a generally persistant inland trough which draws moisture in from the east. Then when you get a system move through it increases the shear and you tend to see a severe thunderstorm outbreak. I've always felt that northern Vic/southern NSW while not getting as many supercells as say NE NSW/SE QLD have better quality ones due to the better shear profiles and upper support when it aligns with moisture. Autumn can see the occasional very severe outbreak and with the strong helicity along cold fronts can sometimes promote tornado outbreaks. Was apparently a large funnel cloud west of Shepparton today, can see a couplet in the doppler when it was just west.

Reality is if you wanna see frequent DECENT severe storm outbreaks SA is just one of the worst places in Aus for it lol, just how it is. For the record though it does seem Melbourne radar was probably overdoing the echoes, I don't think the cells were quite as severe as it suggested (the mid level ones at least). Further north where the surface based stuff got up it looked much better. Yarrawonga radar seemed to paint a better picture.

That's my take on it all anyway.
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