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#1318589 - 15/03/2015 22:03 NSW Late Season Heat- 17th to 20th March 2015
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Hi everyone, I thought I should make a thread for this event because while it's not going to be amazingly hot, it is unusual to have heat of this scale this late in the season.

Wednesday and Thursday will be the most interesting with widespread above average temps possible. 850mb temps could get as high as 24-25C by Thursday in the northwest of the state which converts to the low 40s at sea level. This area will see 850mb temps around 19-20C on Friday.

Friday will see a southerly moving up the coast, shifting the heat north of the Hunter. Tuesday is just the lead up to the heat and have only added it in for good measure, incase things change.

Although the coastal strip will probably see seabreezes for this whole event, there's still no doubt that it will likely feel quite humid and uncomfortable for Wednesday and Thursday at the very least.

PS- I would have liked to have made this thread tomorrow night so there is more certainty, but I feel I wouldn't have the time with homework etc then, so I had to opt for tonight while I had the time. So apologies for the early thread start.

~Sea-Mist. smile

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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1318676 - 16/03/2015 09:08 Re: NSW Late Season Heat- 17th to 20th March 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Bom still going for 34 out here, that is VERY hot for March and it would equal our hottest day this summer. Opticast says 31 here, hoping Bom not correct. smile

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#1318706 - 16/03/2015 11:09 Re: NSW Late Season Heat- 17th to 20th March 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2202
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
I have been watching this heat event play out on the models for a while now. While the models have locked on to it for some time now, the exact timing of the hottest day has swung back and forth between Wednesday and Friday.

Currently, on GFS, Friday afternoon has 40+ for parts of western Sydney. Too good to be true me thinks but nice to think about on crappy stratocu days like today.

I can definitely add DaveM to my schadenfreude list now. Hoping for many more dread posts!


Edited by kizz (16/03/2015 11:10)
Edit Reason: Yowie sighting
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#1318709 - 16/03/2015 11:21 Re: NSW Late Season Heat- 17th to 20th March 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Friday is the day to watch for possible heat records if GFS is correct, it delays the change till late evening in Sydney and it has held steady with this for a number of runs. EC and BOM are going for an earlier change mid-late morning at this stage, but even if they are correct we'll still see some records further north as SM says.

I have never seen an airmass that hot on the charts this late in the warm season, mid 20s at 850 mb and about 31C at 925 mb. We're definitely in an El Nino like pattern atm

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#1318725 - 16/03/2015 12:15 Re: NSW Late Season Heat- 17th to 20th March 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Naughty Kizz!! smile smile

Yep been watching that period for ages on extended GFS until now. As you say, it was locked in pretty well from the start. I kept thinking it was a bit extreme to come true BUT it looks like it will. smile

In reality it's all good, I will sook about the heat like a heap of others whinge about the cold. smile smile

My time to poke you lot is coming and it's inevitable grin

You coasties will enjoy it, you've not had a great summer really, whereas we have had a pretty warm summer out here.

Autumn I think will jump in to gear a bit better once this little timeframe passes.

Kizz - I will think of you every time a cold cloudy poxy day is about down there. grin

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#1318748 - 16/03/2015 13:05 Re: NSW Late Season Heat- 17th to 20th March 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Whilst it's been a fairly mild summer in terms of averages down here, it's felt pretty warm most of the time. A couple of cooler periods have dragged the average down, combined with the lack of extreme heat spikes (until now). Humidity and dew points have been well above average, therefore, I don't think the heat lovers have had much to whinge about.

Not unusual to get a hot period just before the equinox, I suspected we'd get one this year the way things have been playing out. The magnitude is what's unusual, not so much the duration.

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#1318768 - 16/03/2015 15:36 Re: NSW Late Season Heat- 17th to 20th March 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yep, we will have a good cool down after this few days. Nights are overcoming the days heat, house not getting all that hot now.

We are at that point of changing over the part of year of being hotter than the coast to becoming cooler than the coast. Quite a transition point really.

At least we have lots of sunny days and cool clear nights. Autumn is always an interesting season out here. smile

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#1318772 - 16/03/2015 15:48 Re: NSW Late Season Heat- 17th to 20th March 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
If it gets to 40 anywhere in the Basin on Friday it will be a late season record I suspect. Latest I could find in the recent past was 13 March 1998 at Penrith and Richmond, so over a week later is quite significant. 1997/98 was of course the monster El Nino and a very hot summer on the coast. The very dry conditions in NW NSW has to be a significant factor in this current spell.

40C temps at the equinox (or close enough) will be a very weird combination, I suspect it will be more bearable than Dec, Jan or early Feb due to the weaker sunlight.

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#1318783 - 16/03/2015 16:26 Re: NSW Late Season Heat- 17th to 20th March 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8802
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
There's a small window of opportunity for any real heat with 2 changes interrupting play (early Thursday then a much stronger one Friday morning). A min of 13-16C expected tomorrow morning as well gonna make things feel a tad chilly.

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#1318794 - 16/03/2015 16:52 Re: NSW Late Season Heat- 17th to 20th March 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Bom have dropped our temp late in the week from 34 to 32, much better. smile

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#1318795 - 16/03/2015 16:57 Re: NSW Late Season Heat- 17th to 20th March 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
South Africa are playing at the SCG on Wednesday... of course it's going to be hot smile. Likely Australia v India next week, so it will be freezing.

Yes the heat will depend on the timing of the change, I've noticed BOM have upped temps a tad, though still below Wednesday's forecast in the west at least. 00z GFS still hell bent on extreme heat for Friday with a Buster to follow in the evening.

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#1318799 - 16/03/2015 17:04 Re: NSW Late Season Heat- 17th to 20th March 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I note that the BOM has downgraded the heat slightly. Penrith for Wed/Thurs/Fri is now 34 / 32 /33, whereas yesterday they were forecasting Wed/Thurs as (from memory) 36 / 35.

P.S. A few years ago I downloaded OH maxima from the BOM site to a spreadsheet to identify daily records (which are not published, as far as I know). Here are some interesting ones for Observatory Hill for late March:

18/3/1927: 38.1 - second latest 100F
28/3/1940: 38.7 - latest 100F (Sydney Airport was 39.8)
30/3/1923: 37.6
31/3/1960: 35.0 - latest 35C (Sydney Airport was 34.9)

I checked these against the BOM site and looked up Sydney Airport where available, so these are almost certainly correct.

I think that it's only a matter of time before we see 35 in April, 30 in May and high 20s in June and July, given the trend towards ever warmer 'cool' seasons when Westerlies are more common.




Edited by Steve777 (16/03/2015 17:06)
Edit Reason: P.S. clarification

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#1318804 - 16/03/2015 17:23 Re: NSW Late Season Heat- 17th to 20th March 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
From the Sydney Morning Herald 31/3/1923:

"GOOD FRIDAY.

LAKGE CROWDS AT
BEACHES.
Yesterday's temperature reached 99.6 de-
grees in the morning, with the wind north-
east to westerly. After luncheon the wind
veered to southerly, and the weather became
cooler.
..."

http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/16072779#pstart1234871

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#1318846 - 16/03/2015 18:24 Re: NSW Late Season Heat- 17th to 20th March 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Well researched Steve. I'm not sure if it will make the old century at the coastal sites, a weak sea breeze looks like holding at this stage. So this summer could be bookended by two unusual extreme heat days in the West in an otherwise mild summer for extreme temps.

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#1318856 - 16/03/2015 18:38 Re: NSW Late Season Heat- 17th to 20th March 2015 [Re: HumphreyBear]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: DrizzlyBear
Well researched Steve. I'm not sure if it will make the old century at the coastal sites, a weak sea breeze looks like holding at this stage. So this summer could be bookended by two unusual extreme heat days in the West in an otherwise mild summer for extreme temps.


Woo hoo!. That's my kind of summer. cool

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#1318875 - 16/03/2015 19:03 Re: NSW Late Season Heat- 17th to 20th March 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
It's certainly a going to be a decent and unusual event for late March. In fact, I didn't actually realise the extreme rarity of this event until I saw some of these posts. In my head I was thinking that this is rare but I thought that I probably didn't have enough experience with my age to say a statement like that, but seeing these posts from long-time weather enthusiasts really ensures the rarity of this event! I was even contemplating naming this thread "Unusual Late Season Heat".

I would also like to point out that things have drastically changed since this time yesterday. The extreme heat has definitely shifted to Friday as a few have already pointed out.

For example yesterday, 925mb temps for Sydney on Friday were meant to be around 18 to 19C at 2pm. Now it's a staggering 28-30C across the area.

With 850mb temps, yesterday it was predicted that these temps at 2pm Fri were meant to around 17C, with the peak being 19C on Thursday. Now it's forecast to be 15C on Thursday and an amazing 22C for Friday.

This info shows that the heat will certainly be evident on Friday with things backing down on Thursday. With these stats in mind, reaching 40C on Friday should be a cinch under NW winds and clear skies.

Really, Tuesday doesn't even need to be included in this thread, perhaps it will just be a day for more discussion about this rather highly anticipated event? smile
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1318877 - 16/03/2015 19:05 Re: NSW Late Season Heat- 17th to 20th March 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Nice stats Steve, I always enjoy reading the stats that you dig up for us.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1318958 - 16/03/2015 22:29 Re: NSW Late Season Heat- 17th to 20th March 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3983
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
One notable really late-season event was that of 3-4 April 1986: 38.9 at Jerrys Plains, 38.5 at Camden and 38.2 at Richmond, among others. (Remember this day well - among other things, our school cross-country was on the 3rd, although Canberra was "only" in the 32s, equalling its April record).

So far I've mostly been watching the NT and Queensland components of this event, but NSW is certainly worth a look. NT and Queensland both have decent shots at their hottest March days on record (in area-averaged terms) later in the week.

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#1319010 - 17/03/2015 07:51 Re: NSW Late Season Heat- 17th to 20th March 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Thanks for sharing that info Blair, weird to think that temps like that would occur in April, it certainly can happen though. I mean if it can happen at the equivalent time in Spring (late Oct), it can happen in April although it's harder to get a NW wind setup in Autumn. Also some may argue that April is less likely to see heat than October because of the sunlight hours.

Yeah you should have a look at the NSW component, Blair, as it does look pretty impressive- especially on Friday.

Got a pretty cool night with the temp dropping just below 11C. Feels weird to be anticipating such a heat event on a cold morning like this! Have posted a few stats on the Autumn thread.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1319052 - 17/03/2015 10:09 Re: NSW Late Season Heat- 17th to 20th March 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Going to be interesting to see what does actually eventuate. Certainly a warm time for many. As mentioned above, it is indeed interesting how Summer was bookended by heat at either end.

Unlike the coast though we've also had a very warm Feb (above avge) and it's made it a long slow cool down to the equinox. Nights have been good out here and that is where we are lucky compared to the Coast. smile

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