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#1322068 - 26/03/2015 07:32 US Severe Weather Season - 2015
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5300
Thought I'd get this thread started for the first "real" albeit unusually late start to this year's season.

As the SPC put it recently:

""No March Watches to Date Unprecedented.
Keli Pirtle, NOAA Public Affairs
Noon CST, March 17, 2015

We are in uncharted territory with respect to lack of severe weather", said Greg Carbin, SPC's warning coordination meteorologist. "This has never happened in the record of SPC watches dating back to 1970."

Some graphics from the SPC below (the convective outlook map is for the 24hrs ending at 12z tonight):




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#1322072 - 26/03/2015 08:42 Re: US Severe Weather Season - 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Bello Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 358
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Thanks for the heads up. Have been watching and waiting for it to get going and had actually gone as far as to trawling the records for previous years, which, fascinating as it was, was not the same as following live action.
_________________________
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#1322083 - 26/03/2015 09:52 Re: US Severe Weather Season - 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5300
No probs, there's a dangerous tornado down near Tulsa OK as I type as well actually:

TORNADO WARNING
OKC037-113-117-143-252300-
/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0004.150325T2222Z-150325T2300Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
522 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

* AT 521 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WESTPORT...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
TO REPEAT...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER NOW!


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#1322089 - 26/03/2015 10:23 Re: US Severe Weather Season - 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Asturai Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/07/2014
Posts: 459
Loc: West Narangba
I thought I noticed something interesting on their radar.

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#1322103 - 26/03/2015 11:53 Re: US Severe Weather Season - 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5092
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
28 storms is posting some stuff on facebook. News footage of tornadoes ripping through Moore,OK. Crazy amount of power flashes. I always wonder why they don't put their power underground in Tornado country.

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#1322127 - 26/03/2015 14:27 Re: US Severe Weather Season - 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5300
Unfortunately it looks like one confirmed fatality so far in Tulsa county:

2234 4 W SAND SPRINGS TULSA OK 3614 9618

*** 1 FATAL ***

EXTENSIVE DAMAGE IN MOBILE HOME PARK NEAR HIGHWAY 51 AND 145 WEST AVENUE. (TSA)

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#1322169 - 26/03/2015 20:19 Re: US Severe Weather Season - 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5092
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
I guess the storm chasers will be looking forward to some activity. It has been a lean few years for them really with a couple of the quietest years on record and now an unprecedented late start to the season this year. Good from the point of view of less lives lost though.

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#1322275 - 27/03/2015 16:31 Re: US Severe Weather Season - 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18451
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Unfortunately it looks like one confirmed fatality so far in Tulsa county:

2234 4 W SAND SPRINGS TULSA OK 3614 9618

*** 1 FATAL ***

EXTENSIVE DAMAGE IN MOBILE HOME PARK NEAR HIGHWAY 51 AND 145 WEST AVENUE. (TSA)


Yeah one dead and 12 injured according to reports. Some amazing video of the power network getting wiped in this link as well as the tornado itself.


http://edition.cnn.com/2015/03/26/us/oklahoma-storms/
_________________________
"When it comes to the weather, "occasionally" is better than "not at all".

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#1322656 - 30/03/2015 17:29 Re: US Severe Weather Season - 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3166
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
It appears the 1st to 3rd April 2015 period will be the next bout of severe weather in the USA. A nice 500mb wind pattern will enter from the west during the period, and slowly shift SE. The 500mb winds will be quite strong and provide plenty of direction shear from the surface. There is also a hint of 300mb divergence.

April 3 may be quite nasty in SE Texas. Will update.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1322660 - 30/03/2015 17:50 Re: US Severe Weather Season - 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5300
And in keeping with that, the SPC have also added a risk area for Day 5 (in addition to the marginal risk days before then). Previously, there was potential but too much uncertainty.

" AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ON D4-6/WED-FRI ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL STATES...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE CENTERED ON D5/THU IN THE OZARK PLATEAU AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PROG A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING E ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON D4...WITH AN UPSTREAM LOWER-LATITUDE IMPULSE SHIFTING E ACROSS THE WEST ON D5. OVERALL RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS LATTER FEATURE REMAINS POOR WITH A FAST-MOVING ZONAL UPPER JET BISECTING MUCH OF THE CONUS."

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#1322912 - 01/04/2015 14:46 Re: US Severe Weather Season - 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 6003
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Folks:
Saw a picture of some tennis-ball sized hail that fell north of Little Rock, AR today (Tuesday); that was a nasty-looking little cell on radar (tracking SE).

Kind Wishes & Take Care~~~Wet Snow

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#1322956 - 01/04/2015 19:43 Re: US Severe Weather Season - 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3166
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
USA Severe Storms 1/4/2015 (USA) - Target = Grand Island, Nebraska

Severe Weather Expected
Some initial Supercells, small chance of tornadoes. Quickly evolving into a linear Squall line with severe straight line winds and large hail.

Notes on Target
Moisture is rapidly being advected up into mid west plains. While CAPE and moisture is good from Texas Gulf to Nebraska, it is only when you get to Nebraska that mid - upper wind support drops in. One of the indices I often look at is 2m Theta-A. I love looping the models and watch the moisture move up the plains. I find Theta-A much better than dewpoints. This is the Theta-A for late afternoon 1/4/2015



I like the ridge of Theta-A across SE Nebraska, it will the west edge near a cold front that will pop the storms, and after initial possible supercells, I expect a squall line exactly aligned to the SW/NE ridge.

-----------------------------------------------------
Please feel free to post your own targets !!

Some links - the above chart can be found at

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

In the is case I have used NAM model[b][/b]
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1322959 - 01/04/2015 19:53 Re: US Severe Weather Season - 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5300
Meanwhile, here's some tornado probability maps from NOAA/ERSL for Days 0 to 10 automatically generated by an experimental system which calibrates NCEP global ensemble forecasts by comparing past forecasts with actual tornado occurrences as reported to the SPC:


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#1322972 - 01/04/2015 22:32 Re: US Severe Weather Season - 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3166
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
I should also mention that Grand Island would be an initial target with the aim of tagging tail end Charlie(s), which will probably see one moving progressively S/SE during the evening, which will set up better for the 2/4/2015's target
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1322983 - 01/04/2015 23:45 Re: US Severe Weather Season - 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
Interesting stuff guys!!

I am going to choose a target as well and I will do it the same as I did last year on the virtual storm chase game thread.

For today (Wednesday 1st April) it looks like wind shear will be pretty good, especially for NW Kansas and into Nebraska and LI's and CAPE are respectable. Only had a quick squiz at the models so I'm not sure how I will go:

Anyway, my starting target (Wednesday) will be Phillipsburg, KS I plan to head Northeast into Nebraska (NE) through the day.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1323007 - 02/04/2015 10:31 Re: US Severe Weather Season - 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3166
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
The squall line is just started to take shape in Nebraska right now. Severe warned Tail end Charlie is 50 miles (W/NW) of Grand Island, but I suspect that the 'tail end' status will not be around for long. Sea Mist's target of Phillipsburg's looks like it may become next tail end Charlie location, so in the virtual world I would be dropping south all evening, which also sets up better for tomorrow.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1323091 - 02/04/2015 23:12 Re: US Severe Weather Season - 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
I reckon your location is quite a good overall target Ozthunder because it's on a motorway and goes SW to NE along that. Also it has lots of other good road options.

Anyway I am going to post my target in the Virtual chase game thread.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1324136 - 09/04/2015 07:16 Re: US Severe Weather Season - 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5300
Risk bumped up to MODERATE by the SPC for today at time of writing. There's already been a touchdown in MO so far at time of writing.

Extremely critical fire weather for parts of the southwest as well.

Some graphics (the 1st one is an ensemble forecast sounding from SREF while the others should be self explanatory):






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#1324276 - 10/04/2015 10:23 Re: US Severe Weather Season - 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 6003
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Hello Folks:

7:16PM Thursday here, been watching The Weather Channel: chaser Matt Salo is chasing a large (half-mile wide; "debris-ball" on Doppler radar) tornado near Rochelle, Illinois. A semi-truck has been blown off of nearby Interstate-39. The tornado has just impacted the town of Fairdale (appears to be serious damage on the chase cam). Mr. Salo said that he's been storm-chasing for 23 years and has never seen a tornado this large.

The cold front--narrow T-shower line--is not far to the West of my town of Mena. Not a lot of sunshine here today (top around 75F/23.8C) so hopefully, any Severe Weather will miss my area....Looks like Tornado warnings (strong rotation in cells) just NE of Longview, Texas...
Looks like another active evening/night in store.

Keeping an eye to the sky~~~Wet Snow

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#1324279 - 10/04/2015 10:33 Re: US Severe Weather Season - 2015 [Re: Ken Kato]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5092
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Sounds like they are getting a big boost to the season after a very slow start. Certainly some good footage getting good around of the current storms.

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