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#1323089 - 02/04/2015 22:55 NSW Rain Event with ECL- 3rd to 9th April, 2015
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Hey guys, looks like it will be a rainy Easter long weekend with this rain event unfolding.

Both GFS and AccessG have agreed on an ECL for this time period but where it could cause the heaviest rainfall varies between these two models. If GFS is right, then the Hunter, Sydney metro and Illawarra areas could see localised falls of 100+ mm on Sunday.

If AccessG is one to believe, then the main action will be north of Sydney. The models keep changing for this one so tomorrows model runs could be completely different. Personally I reckon AccessG will be more on the money than GFS. GFS looks a bit unrealistic to me.

After the easter long weekend, a large high will move eastwards into the bight by Tuesday and along with the ECL, it is likely that strong southerlies will get compressed by the low and high and drag really cold air into NSW.

Overall, what more can we expect from Easter?? It's traditionally rainy!! Last year was definitely an exception to the rule tho

~Sea-Mist


Edited by Seabreeze (09/04/2015 19:21)
Edit Reason: extended to the 9th, as per request.
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#1323097 - 03/04/2015 01:37 Re: NSW Rain Event with ECL- 3rd to 9th April, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6013
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey Sea-Mist! Yeah it'll be interesting to see how things pan out over coming days for NSW/ACT (and Northeast Victoria, as I'm back in Corryong right now). smile

Hoping for some useful precipitation here this weekend. The place looks horribly dry (with only around 57mm in February, and barely 8mm in March), a stark contrast to the surprisingly high rainfall and unusually but wonderfully lush, green vegetation back in January! frown

Also hoping for some thunderstorms too this weekend! smile

But my biggest concern will be how the weather affects any chances I might have to witness the Blood Moon Lunar Eclipse on Saturday night and Sunday morning. poke

Oh, and before anyone asks, I did set foot in NSW this evening, in Albury (for around 10 minutes at about 11:30pm), whil travelling up from Melbourne. smile

Good to be back! Currently around 11C, but aside from smoke haze it's a moonlit night with clear skies directly overhead and to the southwest, and high cloud across the northeast from the trough over NSW. smile

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#1323106 - 03/04/2015 10:03 Re: NSW Rain Event with ECL- 3rd to 9th April, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
The cold air on Tuesday and Wednesday is what interests me. Looks like we could get some snow on the peaks. As Steve said on the DTD thread, 850mb temps will be pretty cold on Tuesday.

Anyway, it's a really boring and rather terrible day so far. No wind, and not even the decency to rain. But there is 100% stratocrapulus putridness and it's cold and damp outside. It's one of those days that make you not want to go outside or even look out the window.
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#1323109 - 03/04/2015 10:21 Re: NSW Rain Event with ECL- 3rd to 9th April, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6013
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Gloriously sunny here in Corryong, currently around 14C (overnight low of 4.8C in Khancoban, NSW). smile

The smoke haze is terrible though! frown

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#1323111 - 03/04/2015 10:24 Re: NSW Rain Event with ECL- 3rd to 9th April, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5506
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Not much happening here as yet, quite cool and overcast with a slight southerly breeze. It's actually colder now than what it was at 5am when I first got up!!
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2018 - 1145.9mm
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#1323114 - 03/04/2015 10:42 Re: NSW Rain Event with ECL- 3rd to 9th April, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
That's not surprising Eddy, it's certainly cool. Are you in the capital or Pt Stephens?

I reckon as soon as the wind picks up here, it'll feel really cold.

Currently getting some light, annoying rain.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1323116 - 03/04/2015 10:47 Re: NSW Rain Event with ECL- 3rd to 9th April, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5506
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
In the capital till Sunday evening then drive back home for a couple of days.
Saw a few hot air balloons this morning, would've been quite disappointing up there in the clouds!!
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Rainfall
2018 - 1145.9mm
2019 MTD - 302.7mm
2019 YTD - 631.8mm

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#1323117 - 03/04/2015 10:53 Re: NSW Rain Event with ECL- 3rd to 9th April, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
lol. DaveM goes to Adaminaby, and it's puking down in Bathurst.

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#1323119 - 03/04/2015 11:16 Re: NSW Rain Event with ECL- 3rd to 9th April, 2015 [Re: EddyG]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6013
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: EddyG
In the capital till Sunday evening then drive back home for a couple of days.
Saw a few hot air balloons this morning, would've been quite disappointing up there in the clouds!!


It's kinda weird how it's overcast in the Capital, and yet here in the Upper Murray (barely 150km to the southwest as the crow flies) it's hazy but sunny! poke

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#1323120 - 03/04/2015 11:33 Re: NSW Rain Event with ECL- 3rd to 9th April, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's brightened up a bit and stopped raining. It feels almost cold now, although the temperature basically hasn't changed since the small hours after another warm, clammy night. It probably won't change much for the rest of the day or tonight, or tomorrow and tomorrow night. Unless we get sunny breaks, I don't think we'll see the forecast 22.

Some stations in the Bathurst area have picked up 10+ mm since 9:00, about 5mm around Orange, with showers still streaming in from the W-NW. We might get some of that later, with a NW cloud band streaming over the central part of NSW. Bathurst looks as gloomy as Sydney at the moment: http://centralwestflying.com/web-cam/

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#1323130 - 03/04/2015 12:59 Re: NSW Rain Event with ECL- 3rd to 9th April, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1988
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
If and when the east coast low develops,I hope it develops just north of the Hunter which would give us a on shore easterly flow which would bring in some heavy rain.
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#1323131 - 03/04/2015 13:02 Re: NSW Rain Event with ECL- 3rd to 9th April, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
It's still quite cold with the temp struggling at 18C. The top has been just 18.0C and it's likely that will be the official max for today because there are showers moving in now.
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#1323134 - 03/04/2015 13:11 Re: NSW Rain Event with ECL- 3rd to 9th April, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
alby_14 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2005
Posts: 311
Loc: Bathurst, NSW
13.5mm here in Bathurst at my partners place, which is near the hospital. Was nice solid rain for a while this morning.

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#1323145 - 03/04/2015 14:05 Re: NSW Rain Event with ECL- 3rd to 9th April, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6013
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Currently around 24C here in Corryong, lovely warm sunshine (the haze is a little less thick now), light winds, and partly cloudy skies to the north and northeast. smile

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#1323146 - 03/04/2015 14:06 Re: NSW Rain Event with ECL- 3rd to 9th April, 2015 [Re: alby_14]
snowforus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/07/2012
Posts: 401
Loc: Lithgow 945m a.s.l. (Central T...
Three hours of continuous light rain here - just what the pastures needed, if not the holiday makers.
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#1323157 - 03/04/2015 14:58 Re: NSW Rain Event with ECL- 3rd to 9th April, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1988
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
overcast with low cloud from SE and high cloud from north west above,no rain so far,I was down near the coast this morning there was light drizzle down there,there looks to be some convection happening off the coast to my NE of Forster and Nelson bay, don't know if that is the low developing or not.


Edited by Stormy3 (03/04/2015 15:00)
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Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1323161 - 03/04/2015 16:37 Re: NSW Rain Event with ECL- 3rd to 9th April, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6013
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hard to believe that bad weather is lurking away only a few hundred kilometres to the north and northeast in NSW. smile

Splendid comditions here in Corryong, currently around 26C. smile

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#1323166 - 03/04/2015 17:43 Re: NSW Rain Event with ECL- 3rd to 9th April, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1988
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Still no rain here,cool and overcast with low scud cloud,from SE looks like heavy falls of rain lurking off the coast, and moderate to heavy rain moving down out in the NW should start tonight,maybe from coast and from NW.
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Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1323168 - 03/04/2015 17:52 Re: NSW Rain Event with ECL- 3rd to 9th April, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
See y'all later, I'm goin bush for a few days on this miserable Easter weekend. Should be back on Monday arvo.

17C and cloudy atm. Looks like I could encounter heavy rain tomorrow which shall be "fun".
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1323173 - 03/04/2015 19:17 Re: NSW Rain Event with ECL- 3rd to 9th April, 2015 [Re: Wave Rider]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1988
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Sea-Mist,Where about's are you going bush?
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1
Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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