Topic Options
#1324265 - 10/04/2015 09:19 Tropical Cyclone Solo (South Pacific) April 2015
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5225
Loc: Diamond Valley
Well this system seems to have slipped under the radar for many. Looking very impressive on the visible sat. The JTWC has quickly upgraded the chances for development of 94P to high with a cyclone formation alert:

Quote:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.4S 161.3E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENED AND WRAPPED INTO A FAST-CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS READILY APPARENT AS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON THE 091357Z 37GHZ GCOMW1 IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT VERTICAL) WIND SHEAR WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA AT 30 CELSIUS ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AS ALSO INDICATED IN NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.




Edited by Mick10 (10/04/2015 22:31)
Edit Reason: title change
_________________________
The original donut hole

Top
#1324273 - 10/04/2015 09:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Solo (South Pacific) April 2015 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3148
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea that does look good, some model's meander around that region for the next week?

Top
#1324287 - 10/04/2015 11:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Solo (South Pacific) April 2015 [Re: Inclement Weather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 937
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Just for fun. Naming rights on this system could go either way.
If it reaches cyclone status. Correct me if I'm wrong.

We would have "Solo" from Fiji Met.

Or "Quang" from our own BOM.

Who will it be? Will it be at all? I'll go with Solo, it has a ring to it.

Top
#1324297 - 10/04/2015 13:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Solo (South Pacific) April 2015 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5225
Loc: Diamond Valley
Yeah, payshese, right on the edge of our AOR, but I think, as this track map indicates, it will be Fiji's call:

_________________________
The original donut hole

Top
#1324298 - 10/04/2015 13:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Solo (South Pacific) April 2015 [Re: Inclement Weather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 937
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
From Fiji Met. Tropical Depression 15F Threat Track Map.

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65648.html



HaHa IW, you beat me to it.


Edited by payshense (10/04/2015 13:17)
Edit Reason: Beaten to it :P

Top
#1324299 - 10/04/2015 13:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Solo (South Pacific) April 2015 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Drought declared Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/02/2015
Posts: 168
The man from Solo? let's hope he knows how to quench a thirst in Qld.

Top
#1324302 - 10/04/2015 13:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Solo (South Pacific) April 2015 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Cybermouse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 285
Loc: Brinsmead, Cairns
Well, this came out left field quickly. Going for Solo.
_________________________
Great quotes from history
"Scattered showers my ass".........Noah

Top
#1324305 - 10/04/2015 14:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Solo (South Pacific) April 2015 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25275
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
BOM have it weakening from 1000hPa to 1003hPa.

according to the BOM high seas forecast, the low at 160E is forecast to weaken while the one further west will strengthen.

Part 1 Warnings
Gale Warning 002 issued by RSMC Nadi, Fiji at 091947UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F CENTRE [1000PA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.6S 160.7E AT
091800UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 70 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM
CENTRE. AREAS OF GALES MOVING WITH TD15F.


Part 2 Situation at 1800 UTC
Refer to latest warnings.

Trough [1] 05S142E to low [1] 1006 hPa near 10S153E to low [2] 1000 hPa near
14S161E to 09S170E. Forecast 06S142E to low [1] 1005 hPa near 11S154E to low
[2] 1000 hPa near 13S161E to 08S170E at 100600UTC and 07S142E to low [1] 1000
hPa 11S154E to low [2] 1003hPa 12S160E to 10S170E at 101800UTC.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

Top
#1324306 - 10/04/2015 14:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Solo (South Pacific) April 2015 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25275
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:49 pm EST on Friday 10 April 2015
for the period until midnight EST Monday 13 April 2015.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A low pressure system located south of the Solomon Islands is expected to form
into a tropical cyclone later today or during Saturday.

The system is likely to briefly enter the Eastern region during Saturday, but
will remain well offshore before moving southeastwards out of the Eastern
region during Sunday.

This system is not expected to impact the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday High
Sunday Moderate
Monday Very Low
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

Top
#1324313 - 10/04/2015 15:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Solo (South Pacific) April 2015 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5225
Loc: Diamond Valley
Well, the navy boys have decided that this is now a tropical cyclone; however, this is based on their criteria.

Quote:
00300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 160.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 581 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND WRAP TIGHTER INTO A FAST-CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND ON A BULLSEYE FEATURE ON A 092258Z ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD HIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM REPORTING AGENCIES TO REFLECT THE RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE ASCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT VERTICAL) WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA AT 30 CELSIUS ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 12-24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TC 23P TO RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UP TO 75 KNOTS BY TAU 36 BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE SOONER THAN FORECAST DUE TO THE ERODING EFFECTS OF THE HIGH VWS AND COLD SSTS. THERE IS A LIMITED NUMBER OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 12 FEET.


In any case, looking at its organisation and rapid development, Fiji should name it very soon before it crosses over into our AOR.
_________________________
The original donut hole

Top
#1324325 - 10/04/2015 17:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Solo (South Pacific) April 2015 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5091
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Looks every bit of one at the moment. Very well organised. I just hope it misses Vanuatu

Top
#1324335 - 10/04/2015 19:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Solo (South Pacific) April 2015 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18406
Loc: Burnett Heads
BoM have this system named as TC Solo in their reports.
_________________________
"When it comes to the weather, "occasionally" is better than "not at all".

Top
#1324342 - 10/04/2015 19:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Solo (South Pacific) April 2015 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5225
Loc: Diamond Valley
Yes, TC Solo is born. From Nadi:

STORM WARNING 004 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 10/0744 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SOLO CENTRE 997HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0
SOUTH 160.3 EAST AT 100600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 15.0S 160.3E at 100600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 14 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
55 KNOTS BY 110600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 16.6S 160.4E AT 101800 UTC
AND NEAR 18.1S 161.0E AT 110600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
_________________________
The original donut hole

Top
#1324351 - 10/04/2015 22:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Solo (South Pacific) April 2015 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25275
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
no chance of TC Solo moving west and being a drought reliever for us sadly.

_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

Top
#1324373 - 11/04/2015 10:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Solo (South Pacific) April 2015 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5091
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Solo is flying. I definitely reckon CMC(or maybe UK) gets the points for this one. Nailed the rapid development and movement whereas the others kept it weaker for longer

Top


Who's Online
2 registered (Stormy3, Mcbobbings), 318 Guests and 2 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
-Deano-, volkl, Volkl_1
Forum Stats
29611 Members
32 Forums
23933 Topics
1494377 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image