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#1324744 - 15/04/2015 17:53 SA - Upper Trough and Cold Front 16-18 April 2015
kgb007 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/12/2010
Posts: 1515
Loc: Hope Valley, SA
To affect mainly areas north of Adelaide, Northern ags, southern pastorals, Flinders, areas of rain developing tomorrow continuing into Friday, then showers to follow Saturday with passage of a front. 5mm for Adelaide and points south, 15-25mm Northern ags, southern pastorals and Flinders with local falls of 25-50 mm possible.

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#1324750 - 15/04/2015 18:28 Re: SA - Upper Trough and Cold Front 16-18 April 2015 [Re: kgb007]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17593
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
just looks painful for city folk lol.... the line between lots of rain and not much at all will be very fine.... I'm placing it around Maitland-Gawler-Swan Reach.... although if you wish to clutch straws, EC again has us getting maybe 10mm-15mm, but it really doesn't look like much more than 5-10mm if that.

Will be great however to see much of the sth agric area getting upwards of an inch or so... Nth Mallee might just get it, but otherwise it will miss out along with the SE, most of EP and sth YP, KI.

Saturday looks pretty dry to me. Maybe 2-5mm.

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#1324753 - 15/04/2015 18:32 Re: SA - Upper Trough and Cold Front 16-18 April 2015 [Re: kgb007]
kgb007 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/12/2010
Posts: 1515
Loc: Hope Valley, SA
Sheep Graziers advice now out for Northern areas including Riverland!

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#1324760 - 15/04/2015 19:08 Re: SA - Upper Trough and Cold Front 16-18 April 2015 [Re: kgb007]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
Lol yeah go EC, out on a limb once again Tim...

Actually Adelaide may end up getting more from the showers Saturday arvo/evening from the front rather than the rain band Thu/Fri. Or may get around 5mm from both which will be better than nothing grin


Edited by Olaf (15/04/2015 19:10)
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#1324768 - 15/04/2015 19:26 Re: SA - Upper Trough and Cold Front 16-18 April 2015 [Re: kgb007]
Weathermaniac Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/10/2005
Posts: 842
Loc: Whyalla, SA
Looking great for us Whyallaians. Bom saying possible heavy falls over 50mm possible so that would be great.
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RAINFALL YTD 55.8mm
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#1324776 - 15/04/2015 20:22 Re: SA - Upper Trough and Cold Front 16-18 April 2015 [Re: Weathermaniac]
Ryan Hothersall Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2009
Posts: 795
Loc: Gulfview Heights, South Austra...
Heard on radio, rain might affect work to fix gas for you guys.
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#1324778 - 15/04/2015 20:49 Re: SA - Upper Trough and Cold Front 16-18 April 2015 [Re: kgb007]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 576
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Not confident with this one, however some tv stations would have us believe its time to start building an arc...mates of mine up in the flinders, thought I was joking when I told them they may experience a good outback rain.

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#1324782 - 15/04/2015 21:36 Re: SA - Upper Trough and Cold Front 16-18 April 2015 [Re: kgb007]
kgb007 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/12/2010
Posts: 1515
Loc: Hope Valley, SA
How quickly has that cloud thickened out W and NW, someones going to get wet! LOL

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#1324790 - 16/04/2015 00:51 Re: SA - Upper Trough and Cold Front 16-18 April 2015 [Re: kgb007]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 729
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
cycling to work at 14:00 16 April - ho ho @-|

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#1324792 - 16/04/2015 05:39 Re: SA - Upper Trough and Cold Front 16-18 April 2015 [Re: kgb007]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14966
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
I think we are going to get a lot more rain for this system than one may think (around the Adelaide area at least). Southern suburbs past about Noarlunga is where it drops off a fair bit to nothing terribly special but the dynamics to watch here is the way the tilted mid level trough/upper trough cuts off into an upper low. It induces the surface trough fairly well, it will keep forming down the back edge with the upslide pattern working like a well oiled machine. There is HUGE convergence in this system in the mid levels. We have 40-45knot mid level NW coming down on the mid level jet converging almost immediately to nothing with the calm of the trough axis. This will give excellent lift for widespread heavy rain, especially North of say Gawler where it really looks a treat. One of the best autumn rainbands in a very long time for the Mid North especially this one. I can see lots of 30-50mm falls with isolated 50-75mm falls up there in sweet spots.

Riverland probably 20-30mm in general but likely some over 30mm in the far N.

Adelaide itself about 10-20mm 15-25mm about N suburbs. 8-15mm to Noarlunga and less than that further south. It's s very finicky cut off area and depends on the way that upper low positions but I tend to find these sorts of systems don't get modelled very well and things can surprise.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (16/04/2015 05:40)

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#1324794 - 16/04/2015 06:45 Re: SA - Upper Trough and Cold Front 16-18 April 2015 [Re: kgb007]
Happy Birthday Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1891
Loc: Semaphore SA


Love it smile hope it keeps up.

Seems like that blob on radar is pretty nice. Just clipping the edge of it here and getting good amounts of wetness.


Edited by Chris #3 (16/04/2015 06:50)
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#1324800 - 16/04/2015 07:17 Re: SA - Upper Trough and Cold Front 16-18 April 2015 [Re: kgb007]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1690
Loc: Uleybury
Adelaide upped from 1-5 to 5-15mm today.

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#1324804 - 16/04/2015 08:41 Re: SA - Upper Trough and Cold Front 16-18 April 2015 [Re: kgb007]
Ryan Hothersall Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2009
Posts: 795
Loc: Gulfview Heights, South Austra...
Woke up to hear light rain at home.

1.8 mm so far.
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Current Gulfview Heights weather
http://ryanhothersall.net/gulfview-heights-weather/

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#1324815 - 16/04/2015 10:11 Re: SA - Upper Trough and Cold Front 16-18 April 2015 [Re: kgb007]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1660
Loc: Bridgewater
dry as a bone so far

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#1324816 - 16/04/2015 10:12 Re: SA - Upper Trough and Cold Front 16-18 April 2015 [Re: kgb007]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1660
Loc: Bridgewater
just looked at the radar, thats about to change

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#1324824 - 16/04/2015 12:02 Re: SA - Upper Trough and Cold Front 16-18 April 2015 [Re: kgb007]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17593
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
4mm here to 9am.

Loving EC now.. could well see an inch here at home.
ACCESS also has come to the party with 20mm+
GFS not far off same...

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#1324827 - 16/04/2015 12:34 Re: SA - Upper Trough and Cold Front 16-18 April 2015 [Re: kgb007]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1660
Loc: Bridgewater
so far its been dying out over adel. force field anyone....

the next lot looks solid though

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#1324830 - 16/04/2015 12:44 Re: SA - Upper Trough and Cold Front 16-18 April 2015 [Re: kgb007]
liz Offline
Wind Speed Queen

Registered: 02/12/2001
Posts: 1910
Loc: Near Victor Harbor S.A.
Just over 1mm since 9am. The birds are enjoying heaps of moths that are now flying around.

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#1324833 - 16/04/2015 13:07 Re: SA - Upper Trough and Cold Front 16-18 April 2015 [Re: kgb007]
SUPER CELL Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/10/2007
Posts: 944
Loc: ALBERT PARK
This morning's lot looked solid also but died in the ass! smirk
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#1324837 - 16/04/2015 13:35 Re: SA - Upper Trough and Cold Front 16-18 April 2015 [Re: kgb007]
Farm Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2009
Posts: 845
Loc: West Mallee SA
We were in the slot this morning at a little place called naturi
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Average Rainfall 340mm

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